Long seen as the "enemy", the bookmaker is actually a punter's friend.

Reading through the terms and conditions of any bookmaking site, it is clear they are telling us how to win.
They will close accounts of anyone who only backs firmers from the track early.
They will also be fairly quick to limit wagers from winning accounts.

To that end, I did a little excercise covering the last six Saturday meetings all tracks.
I considered only those horses where the final bookie price was less than the opening price.
This left me with 481 contenders.
Here is the profit breakdown with no other filters:

Bookie SP -55.65 units or -11.57%
NSWTAB +15.30 units or +3.18%
UNiTAB +21.70 units or +4.51%
STAB +37.20 units or +7.73%
Best Tote +64.70 units or +13.45%
Top Fluctuation +100.75 units or +20.95%
Betfair SP +123.92 units or +25.76%

So deducting 5% off Betfair profits (assuming you were on the highest commission), you are actually getting virtual Top Fluctuation through Betfair, which is closed well before prices are put up with the bookies.

Of course there were a few bolters in there, but some savvy price filters can increase the strike rate.

It is also quite easy to see how a small percentage discount from the TABS to high rollers, makes the job easy.
Most high rollers know less about racing than the average joe, they just know odds and how to splash cash around to qualify for incentives.

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So you are saying back all runners that are less than opening bookie price.

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Yes, providing your price is better or equal to opening price.
Of course price filters do make a big difference.

For example:

Consider horses that open less than $3.00 but which firm in betting.
So the final price has to be less than the opener.

There were 41 of these for 27 winners.
65.85% strike rate.
Betfair SP would have snagged you 15.62 units profit or 38.10% POT.

just an example.

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If I go back to a completely different set of data that I did last year, taking all "firmers" on all racedays, not just Saturdays...

921 Bets
167 Winners
Top Fluc Profit 148.55 units or 16.13% POT
SP -117.1 or -12.71% LOT
Best Tote Profit 98.80 units or 10.73% POT

At that stage BFSP was not in Aus, but it would have beaten Top Fluc.

However, including all race days the Top Fluc loss was more than 10% on those firmers less than $3.00.

Stick to the better quality races and horses, where they are firmers and you're home and hosed.

OR

Lay the hotpots if they are within 5% of Bookie SP

Many occasions they were actually under bookie SP, but that's a whole other angle.

(The above refers to the latest data set)

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Chrome is your suggestion there to take the price at a given time b4 the off, or are you working on 2nd Flucuation?

When working with track odds streamed to my pc, mostly horses are all opened well short, then they drift with the second ring fluctuation, it is what happens directly thereafter (i.e. third fluctuation) that is the signal to back.

My required price is the second fluctuation or better.

Example:

Race 2 Cessnock Today.

1. Lockley Lad

Fluc1 $5.50
Fluc2 $6.00 <= This is the price we want or better after fluc 3 is a backing signal.
Fluc3 $5.00 <= This is less than open price, signal to back.
Fluc4 $4.60

Best tote was $5.90, BFSP was $5.79, so no bet for me.

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sorry wrong button

Chrome, do you mean that's what was showing at that time? as you wouldn't know the actual figure till after the race would you?[/QUOTE] or do you bet with a price stipulation (BFSP)

Yes, I qualify the BFSP price as a minimum of $6.00.
I missed a winner, but it wasn't value.

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Chrome was Captura one of yours today? just checking to see if I got it right!

(posted that in the wrong thread before)