Thanks.

I see alot of early World Cup round 1 soccer matches are available, so taking the Australia/Chile game as an example (99% market), I would lay now at avail prices

Chile $1.56
Aust $8.20
Draw $4.50

& say I could back on game day at 99% again

Chile $1.40
Aust $10.00
Draw $5.60

results excluding comm

Chile win $10*(1.40-1.56) -$1.60
Aust win $10*(10.00-8.20) +$19.80
Draw win $10*(5.60-4.50) +$13.20

Am I on the right track?

Exactly, and look at the effective odds you've got to liability!
Of course there will be lots of small losses, but when an outsider wins it's cash in the bank way over the odds. Plus there are times when the favourite drifts and wins at short prices. Not every transaction will be an overlay, I have got under the effective odds a few times, and the same effective odds also, but the overlays achieved outweigh any losses.

The downside is the amount of manual work involved, scanning sports, putting your lays on, THEN making sure all backs are put on right before the match.
The good side is that id you make a boo boo, and you will, and miss out on putting the back part on for whatever reason, you only lose less than 1% anyway.

I now have my spreadsheet and transfer the pre event time to my outlook calendar. I then, sync my Iphone and get a reminder. So I can trade out on the mobile site if not at home.

EPL soccer is brilliant because the have SP. I have also asked about having sport SP in the Betfair Q&A on the 27th.

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Now to take this a step further.
Instead of having 10 back on the bolter you only have 9 leaving this result.
+.20 or +3.40

That would be utopia, but you don't know for sure if it will firm and be left exposed greater on the outsider if it firms. Quite a few have.

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Cheers CP

Much like tennis for most of the year, the amount of bet-able soccer matches during any given week is well frankly, insane. So yes, I can see there would be a fair amount of work keeping on top of it all.

Speaking of tennis, it would also appear a perfect sport for this strategy with lots of well supported minor tournaments throughout the year.

I know you would have done your research so how often does the bolter firm?, because this could cause some nasty looking books and results if they win.

Could this be applied to racing? the drifters being your winners.

Isnt this basically trading so would attract the turnover charge on many racing markets.

Not that often, and they win even less often, so overall yes you will get a bad beat, but the odds you're getting on overlays compensate. but yes you will get some bad results now and then. Overall it is a very good winning strategy including those occasional hiccups.

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that's what we were doing automated months ago, but liquidity is too thin and there are too many options to lose. In sports there are only two or three options (the draw) so you stand a better chance.
Racing is where this evolved for me, and I then found sports was far better in all ways, far more work, as it's all manual and very difficult to find all the correct events and back back just before each event starts.
I stick to majors leagues in rugby, soccer, tennis, AFL, Basketball, Baseball, gridiron.
As a rule I never touch minor leagues, darts, badminton, politics, golf.
There's more than enough work in the majors.

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