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  #41  
Old 2nd January 2018, 06:03 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Can't remember exactly but I think it was 80%+ of races 1200m and less are won by 1st uppers. I've had a bit of success with race to race doubles with this, so today would have been race 5 nos 4,5,6, into Race 7 ,nos 1,2
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  #42  
Old 2nd January 2018, 06:38 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Thanks party. I could look it up and might do that later.

Today's results were acceptable. With only two meetings I was never going to make much.

Results:
Week 1: $1770 Profit
Day 8: $2460 Profit
Day 9: $1570 Profit
Day 10: $1240 Profit
Day 11: $340 Profit

Total Profit : $7380
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  #43  
Old 2nd January 2018, 10:43 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Can't remember exactly but I think it was 80%+ of races 1200m and less are won by 1st uppers.


I've no evidence to back it up John, but that doesn't sound right.
On the other hand, thank you Lord Of The Sky.
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  #44  
Old 3rd January 2018, 11:43 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I have handicapped three meetings today but I am really tired. Because of this tiredness I have been extra careful and been conservative on the selections.

After 3 meetings I will only be on 7 races out of 24 races. The expected profit from this is around $300.

I'll knock off the other two meetings in the next hour hopefully.

I'm checking that stat on the sprint races now. I'll report back when I have the information.
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  #45  
Old 3rd January 2018, 11:55 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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UB is there a free rating/prepost that you've found to have the best accuracy in terms of being similar to the final odds. Obviously final odds are most accurate but that makes it harder to make pre-race decisions and be most efficient. Obviously there are the widely used tatts ratings but I'm just curious if there are any pre-posts available that give similar outcomes. If not thats fine just curious.

Cheers
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  #46  
Old 3rd January 2018, 12:07 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
UB is there a free rating/prepost that you've found to have the best accuracy in terms of being similar to the final odds. Obviously final odds are most accurate but that makes it harder to make pre-race decisions and be most efficient. Obviously there are the widely used tatts ratings but I'm just curious if there are any pre-posts available that give similar outcomes. If not thats fine just curious.

Cheers


No I use the opening bookie prices rather than prepost odds. Prepost odds are computer generated and just a rating. Bookies prices are much better as the bookie needs to stand behind that decision and if they get it wrong it could cost them a lot of money.

The final odds are still the best indicator.
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  #47  
Old 3rd January 2018, 12:08 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I'm checking that stat on the sprint races now. I'll report back when I have the information.


ok checked it out.

First starters + resumers make up 24% of the fields in sprints (1200m or less). They win 25% of the races.
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  #48  
Old 3rd January 2018, 01:29 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Finished the form analysis and I will be on 12 races today from 38 races.
The likely profit in a few races at Geraldton is reasonable so the overall target profit for the day is now $525.

If your having a bet good luck.
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  #49  
Old 3rd January 2018, 02:24 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
ok checked it out.

First starters + resumers make up 24% of the fields in sprints (1200m or less). They win 25% of the races.


Yes, trying to remember , it must have been resumers plus some other criteria not sure if it included first starters or not.
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  #50  
Old 3rd January 2018, 09:05 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Results:
Week 1: $1770 Profit
Day 8: $2460 Profit
Day 9: $1570 Profit
Day 10: $1240 Profit
Day 11: $340 Profit
Day 12: $1160 Profit

Total Profit : $8540

The odds today were very enticing and without a losing race today I was able to push through to double the expected profit. The profit mainly came from Kembla Grange ($530) and Geraldton ($480). The other three meetings combined only made $150.

This shows me there are no short cuts and I need to push through and do the form for every meeting as you never know which meeting will hold the odds in your favour for a good profit.

Its coming up to the end of the two week test period and I am extremely impressed by the results so far. They are beyond my expectation. In the last 12 days I have handicapped hundreds of races and actually had money on the result of 220 races. That is a good set of testing and yet it is such a small sample size.

Looking to the future I am looking to handicap every race on a Saturday and Sunday (and night meetings and the odd late race) going forward and I'll continue to post my results here. But at some point, as the profits grow, I'll have to face the fact that this might be best done full time and step into the uncertain world as a professional punter.
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