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  #61  
Old 5th January 2018, 03:10 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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UB, just a query, when Dutching using BFSP how do you calculate the stakes, as we don't know what BFSP is until after the race?
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  #62  
Old 5th January 2018, 06:03 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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party,

Yep I know exactly what you mean.

If I am laying its easy as you can set the liability. I probably lay 80% of the time on the selections I have not chosen.

Now when I am backing its a different issue and I try and take a best guess. Usually if I am only on 3 or 4 I might be able to take the fixed prices before the jump if the market is already 98%-102%. If its outside that range then I will take a guess somewhere in the middle of the back price and the lay price.

If I could back to a liability based on the odds (ie target to return $1000) I would make a killing on betfair as I have a number of systems which would absolutely make a fortune using this staking method with betfair SP.
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  #63  
Old 5th January 2018, 06:19 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is online now
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Betsender has a Back to fixed profit staking plan and I would presume a lot of other Bots would too. You should try one of them.
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  #64  
Old 5th January 2018, 06:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
Betsender has a Back to fixed profit staking plan and I would presume a lot of other Bots would too. You should try one of them.


I just checked the API and yes they now have a backtopayout option. I need to see how it works with betfair SP but perhaps that is what they are using.

Quote:
If you wish to benefit by receiving the same potential payout as you originally requested, but to smaller stakes, you can now specify on a LimitOrder (placeOrders) an optional ‘betTargetType’ of ‘PAYOUT’ or ‘BACKERS_PROFIT’ (the latter being identical to layers’ liability) and a ‘betTargetSize’ representing the value of that payout or profit, together with the usual ‘price’ parameter to represent their limit price. Your bet will then be matched to achieve that payout or profit at the specified price or better.


It only talks about pre-SP so not sure its going to work. Seems it just backs at a lower stake straight away rather than waiting for betfair SP which is where I would want to do it.
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  #65  
Old 5th January 2018, 06:48 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Yes I thought something like that. I was talking about backing there, but taking a look at that Dutching idea (backing) I was toying with the idea of laying all "other" selections either instead of or as well as (to liability of course) only problem there is that most of them would be at the higher end of the market , the returns would be minimal but I still reckon more than enough to cover the liability on the 1-2 in 20 that wins.
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  #66  
Old 5th January 2018, 06:50 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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Just did some research in the API and it is only available on the LIMIT_ORDER and not the MARKET_ON_CLOSE bet type. Betfair SP can only be done using the MARKET_ON_CLOSE and LIMIT_ON_CLOSE which doesn't have payout either.

So its just not available on the betfair SP market at this time.
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  #67  
Old 5th January 2018, 08:51 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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Week 1: $1770 Profit
Day 8: $2460 Profit
Day 9: $1570 Profit
Day 10: $1240 Profit
Day 11: $340 Profit
Day 12: $1160 Profit
Day 13: $910 Profit
Day 14: $600 Profit

Total Profit : $10,050 Profit

Another profit today pushing it just above $10K for the 2 weeks. This is way above my two week target of $4k.

So what did I learn during the two weeks.

1. I can do this and do it really well. The profits speak for themselves.

2. Its hard work. It is about 3-7 hours every day working going through the form and checking the races. Its not easy money.

3. Consistency is the key. You need to look at every meeting every day in order to get a feel for the markets.

4. You learn a lot by just doing it. The more time you spend looking at form the easier it is to see those little things which others miss. This is what leads to a consistent profit.

5. If in doubt include the horse as a chance. Horses win for lots of reasons and if I see even the slightest chance then I include the horse. I don't try to pick the winner, I try to pick the real chances in the race.

6. Strike rate is very important. Losing money changes your mindset. If you are constantly winning then you are in the right frame of mind.

7. Larger stakes make you focus. If the money is a meaningful amount then you really double down on your analysis to get it right.

8. The fun of it tends to disappear. You are working so hard at it that it can be tiring and at times boring going through the 1000th horse for the day. It turns into a grind but at least you get paid well for it.

9. I don't think many others could replicate what I do. The reason being I look at form every day for my systems and I had a very good background on what works and what doesn't. I started from a position where I was likely to be profitable whereas most gamblers won't have the hours of research behind them. I am also highly detail oriented and look at every bit of detail whereas the normal person would not delve as deeply into the nuances as I do.


So where to from here ? I intend to continue on the weekends and make a nice side income just doing a few days form. This will take away the grind as it will only be a few days a week.

I'll keep updating the thread as I continue on and lets see how I end up going over the next few weeks and hopefully months.
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  #68  
Old 6th January 2018, 12:46 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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Done the first 4 meetings for today and only found 10 races out of 33 races.

The fields are either small or there are too many chances in the races to be worthwhile.

Hopefully the other 3 meetings today are a bit easier to find the winners.
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  #69  
Old 6th January 2018, 01:06 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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UB

Good luck.

Cheers.
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  #70  
Old 6th January 2018, 01:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
UB

Good luck.

Cheers.


Thanks Darky.
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