Hi guys,thought it best to take Betty Boops advice and kick in a new thread.Big Louie,can you post your figures for all races and all days,and also without applying the priceline filter?When I posted the original rules,I intended it as a Saturday system only,however there have been many good priced winners during the week,so I don't think it should be restricted to Sat.only.I still prefer it in it's raw form,even though the facts and figures experts(of which I am Not one!)say it will not stack up long term.I tried using some filters early on,but found I was eliminating winners here and there.If you were incorporating the priceline filter suggested by Big Louie,you would have eliminated some good priced winners,Riva Rebel at 18.70/4.60 comes to mind,and there would be others.There are two filters I have been giving thought too,that is;
1.Restricting the distance range to 1600 metres.
2.Drawn no wider than barrier 8.
The logic behind the distance range is obvious,it gets harder for any horse to carry a big weight the further it has to carry same.The barrier draw I guess explains itself too.Given that we are always on the topweight,we don't want it to expend any extra energy trying to get across from a wide gate.Also as this system seems to throw up a lot of placegetters,I am using a 2x8 staking method.Any placegetter @1.25 is break even,anything above that figure is a profit.Just to clarify the distance range,that is up to and including 1600 metres.Any thoughts on this?Big Louie and or Becareful,any figures you can come up with using these filters would be greatly appreciated.Cheers

Selections for today with filters in place.
Esk Race 6
Cessnock Race 7(just scraped in with the scratching(I'm assuming)bringing it in to barrier 8.
Cheers and good luck!

Selections for Wednesday(no filters)
Eagle Farm R2/R5
Gosford R5
Mornington R3/R4/R5
Pinjarra R5
Morphettville No qualifiers
Cheers

Angel416,

I had a bit of a play with this using my database and, sorry to say, the results are not great. I tested with all the data I have for last calender year, using NSWTAB divs. One thing to note is that I ignored any races where either of the top 2 by weight were scratched so you may get a slightly different result if you substituted the next eligible runner instead of ignoring the race.

I also checked out the "2nd topweight" as suggested by Big Louie and this seems to have more potential. Anyway the results I got were as follows:

No Filters
1258 selections, TopW=27% Loss, 2ndW = 5% Loss

I tried all sorts of filters on the Top Weight selections but nothing made a great improvement.

Barrier seems pretty much irrelevant - 80% of them start from barrier 8 or less anyway. Barrier 1-8 = 26% LOT, Barrier 9+ = 30% LOT.

Track condition seems to show that Good or Fast tracks are the best bets but again there is only a few percent in it and everything shows a loss.

Race Distance seems to indicate that longer distances are more favourable. 1400m and over showed a loss of 13% whilst under 1400m showed a loss of 40%.

Metro v's NonMetro - Metro (all days) was significantly better than NonMetro for the Top Weight showing a loss of around 18% compared to 33% for country.

Price - Removing any runners over $10 improves POT a bit as only 1 winner over this price.

Even combining all the positive filters together I could not come up with a profit for the years worth of races I was working with.

However the 2nd Top Weights is a different story. Again with no filters there was around a 5% loss.

Barrier was interesting with a higher POT for barriers greater than 8 but again only 20% of runners fall into this category.

Track condition seems to be generally irrelevant (again HEAVY shows a bigger loss but quite a small number of bets in this category so it may be irrelevant, Fast has the best results).

Distance is interesting with a profit showing on races less than 1300m and again over 1600m (up to 2200m) but a bit of a black hole in between.

The Metro/Non-Metro distinction was also interesting with significantly better results for non-metro meetings - a contrast to the TopWeights.

Breakdown by State seems to give very interesting results with ACT/NSW and Qld all showing a good profit, SA & TAS breaking even, WA a loss of around 8% and Vic a loss of around 33%.

I also analysed by State and Metro grouping and found that :
NSW Non-Metro (includes ACT) gave good profit
NSW Metro gave a loss
QLD Metro gave a profit
QLD Non-Metro gave a loss
SA Metro small profit
SA Non-Metro small loss
VIC both gave signicant loss

So for the year in question (2002) you would have made a significant profit by backing the number 2 horse in NSW/ACT non-metro and QLD metro meetings where the top weight was carrying at least 2.5 kg more than the number 2. Based on these rules there were 324 selections, 63 winners (average price $8.11) for profit of $187 or 58%.

The problem is when I ran the same rules over the 2001 data I got a significant LOSS so I doubt if it will hold up.

Anyway best of luck to you.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Becareful,thank you muchly for your facts,figures,input,etc.etc.Big Louie and Billborric,thank you also.Redcraze and all others,thank you also.I am at a loss as where to go with system.All the facts and figures seem to suggest that this method will not stand up long term.Yet it keeps on delivering!Yesterday was a fizzer,2 bets for a 2nd placing,and one unplaced.Today there where 5 bets(after 2 scratchings)for 3 winners and 4 placings.What I am going to do is keep backing the qualifiers as per the original system that I posted.I will post the selections each day if there is any interest expressed for me to do so.If not,I will just continue along my merry way,cheers,angel

Angel,
I would imagine that there is some system going on here - its just that the databases may not be picking up the common factor.

Perhaps the horses your method selects have come down a class, or have the best time or class rating or placed last race.

There will be some common factor that allows you to ditch a lot of the long term losing bets - but it might take more than a database to find it.

see ya
Every Topic

Thursday selections-
Bathurst R2
Ballarat R4
Moonee Valley R7
Cheers

Hi All, I've been watching events unfolding with extreme interest & on occasions wanted to post but couldn't manage the simple task of registering!! However I'm here now & just wanted to congratulate everyone esp. angel on their time-consuming input. I've found a really old staking plan which may/may not help:Winning Odds Plan - 1st bet 2 units rising by 1 for each loser backed so for run of 7 losers, outlay of 35 units. Next sel.with 9 units wins at 5/1 giving return of 45 winning units. Now drop back winners price from amount of last bet to ascertain amount to be invested on next race [9-5=4]so next bet is 4 units.Could it work? I'm the least mathematical person on earth with no databases but desperately in need of a good system!! Aren't we all? Dying to see your next one angel. Please don't keep us in suspense!! btw I'm a $200 bank punter so won't be hurting the divs!

Here is a variation on the 2nd topweight theme - it has shown a profit 19 out of the last 24 months but no guarantees for the future! It was retrofitted to 12 months of data and then tested against another 12 months and did hold up.

2nd Topweight (ie. No. 2)
Must be 1 or 1.5 kg lighter or 3.5kg or more lighter that top weight
Must have QTab rating of 100
Must be priced between $4.00 and $5.00 on Supertab at jump time.

So far this month there have been 12 selections for 4 winners - the winners were:
1/2 - Flemington R4 - It's Rysek $4.10/1.60
5/2 - Gawler R4 - Salazar $4.20/2.00
15/2 - Ascot R1 - Fore Stay $4.00/1.70
18/2 - Werribee R6 - Nawanda $4.30/1.50
There were another 4 placings paying 2.00, 1.60, 1.80 & 1.80

For the longshot chasers you can also use the same rules but with a price filter of $11.00 to $16.00 - not very many bets but quite a nice POT over the last 2 years.

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-21 08:34 ]

Angel's System Mark 2. (Red's Filters)

Angel this is working really well.
4th straight winning week from 4 attempts.

From Sun 16th to Sat 22nd inclusive.

12 bets - 5 winners - 11 places

Win div total $18.90
Place div total$20.00

Win Return ($5.00) $94.50 - Profit $34.50
Place Return($15.00)$300.00 - Profit $120.00

Total profit $154.50 (outlay $240.00)

Angel, it works and this is showing up in random weeks selected through VICTAB.

So far not one losing week in 8.
This includes current as well as 4 historical chosen at random ovet the past 24 months

I am very happy with it - thanks Angel416.


[ This Message was edited by: Redcraze on 2003-02-22 19:53 ]