Hi Gary,
Do you by any chance have some results from Race 1, horses rated 100 from the ratings on the VIC Tab site under the 3rd print option.

I had 4 winners from 5 Metro tracks today paying 4.60, 11.60, 3.00 and 2.80

Regards

Hi Vortech.


Unfortunately not i download and do my own ratings from another site,
I only use the class and field strength figures on that site .

Many moons ago i served my apprenticeship using these ratings.

Am a bit more advanced now but being free talking weight ratings,
Only they are the best i know of.

You can check all that stuff and more but it will cost a small amount.
If you register and put $20.00 into an account then pay $5.50 for a,
Particular days ratings this will give you 7 days to download all meetings,
Going back over 10> years.

If the 7 days runs outs purchase another full days meeting $5.50 that will give,
You another 7 days etc.

Let me know if you want to do this i will post the site it is available on.

If not you will have to get them each day.

If you visit the vic website now click on tomorrow the ratings will come up,
For thursday.

Each days ratings will be there till about midnight.

Well done on the first step of developing your own ratings.
You are where i was 10 years ago so i know what you are going through.
Keep at it you are on the right track i reckon.

There are many other wise people on this forum that will help.

Cheers.
GARYF.

Hi Vortech.

These are a bit old but covers a lot of years so,
Should be static

Skyform Syd Mel Br, Ad,Pe Prov Ctry

100 pointer 21.2 22.6 25.0 25.8

95 to 100 29.9 32.1 33.5 33.7

90 to 100 45.9 48.3 50.4 48.8

85 to 100 61.6 60.8 61.8 60.9

80 to 100 72.3 71.7 70.8 71.0

75 to 100 82.2 80.0 78.5 80.0

70 to 100 89.1 87.2 84.6 87.3

The runners in ranked order.

Syd Mel Br, Ad,Pe Prov Ctry

1 - 1 21.2 22.6 25.0 25.8

1 - 2 36.2 40.9 42.9 42.5

1 - 3 49.8 52.9 56.3 55.6

1 - 4 60.9 63.3 66.8 66.9

1 - 5 70.7 71.4 74.1 75.1

1 - 6 78.2 78.0 80.2 82.3

1 - 7 84.2 83.9 85.0 87.7

Cheers.
Garyf.

Hi Garyf,
Hope you don't mind me entering the discussion, but I find your stats very interesting. Please help me understand the figures: on all first races Sydney, those Skyrated 75-89 win 36.3% of the time, for Melbourne, 31.7% of the time, etc?
Seems there might be value in these lower rated ones.
Thanks!! Jackact

No sorry for the confusion there.

These are not 1st race strike rates these are,
The overall strike rates for these ratings.

Some places are better depending on the state you,
Are betting in or whether it's metro cntry- prov.

I believe from a mate who uses them still that the strike rates,
Are now slightly better than what i posted which was,
Several years old.

As i know longer use them have moved on although i still,
Use the class and field strength figures on every race i do,
I can't tell you the extent of the improvement.

I used them for a long long time and with various filters,
Was able to grind out a small profit from year to year.

Crosstabbing the selections in different panels was a method i used successfully,
For many a year.

Good luck with it.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Thanks Garyf, I've got it now. If I get any useful results from playing around with these, I'll post the info.
Cheers, Jackact

So in Sydney the skyrating would be like this

1=21.2
1-2=36.2
1-2-3=49.8.
1-2-3-4= 60.9.

Cheers.

For the points ratings themselves Sydney

100 rated=21.2%
95-100= 29.9%
90-100= 45.9.%
85-100=61.6%.

Try to rate only those that have a rating of 88>
Below this you are in a negative w.r.r. or negative,
Expectation they don't win as many races as they they represent.

Cheers.

Hi Vortech and Garyf,
Thank you Vortech for the tip on accessing the DFS summary sheet from the 3rd print option on the Vic (and NSW) Tab sites. I have been doing that for a while, just saving the PDF files for later analysis. Here some results.
First, I just can't get any meaningful (ie profitable) correlations around either the DFS Ratings or the Skyform ratings. I have just given up on these sets of data. I admire anyone who makes money from them.
I was almost at the stage of thinking there may be no value (for me with limited analytical ability) in the DFS sheets. In a desperate last attempt, I tried playing with the Place % and Beaten Margin figures. This was surprisingly interesting. (I restricted my attention to ratings races, 1250m-1550m, 12 or more starters, Track no worse than Dead.)

I had always looked at Place% in in order from the top down, believing the top % should be the best value (other things equal), then the 2nd, and so on down the list. This not what I found. The results show winners grouped around a Place % of about 40%. Winners almost always come from exactly 40%, or the first three percentages about 40, or the first four percentages below 40. So for a race like today's Race 6 at Coffs Harbour, the list looks like:
TAB No/P%
14 24
10 29
15 31
5 34
9 35
2 38
8 40
6 40
7 43
4 43
12 43
3 44
1 48
11 50
I predict the winner is likely to come from the % range 43 down to 31.

Beaten Margin - the second column on the DFS sheet, is a better indicator than I expected. The narrower the better (watch for last start winners where it is a winning margin, of course). Most winners have not been beaten more than 3.0L last start, although I include 3.5L if the horse is no worse than 3rd in closeness-to-the-winner last start. An odd exception is for horses with the worst Beaten Margin! Even if beaten 24L, back these if they are well in the market- under SP $6, say.
For Race 6 at Coffs, the Beaten Margins in order are:
TAB No/P% Beat Margin
3 44 0.5
14 24 1.5
10 29 1.8
5 34 1.8
9 35 2
8 40 2
11 50 2.3
7 43 3.3
4 43 3.5
12 43 7
15 31 8
6 40 8.5
2 38 12
1 48 35
On these figures I would not look past 3,14,10,5,9,8,11, unless No 1 (beaten 35L) is in the market.

Matching the Place% and Beaten Margin rules for Race 6 at Coffs throws up numbers 5 and 9 (and possibly 1 if backed).
Hope that all is of some interest, guys. Thank you both for pointing me in the direction of the DFS pdf sheets.
Jackact

Hi Jackact.


Will help you out a bit more seeing you are trying to make a go of it.
You need to look at the "other panels" outside of the skyform ratings.

Try to split them into a state then whether the meeting is at,
A Country, Provincial or Metropolitan meeting.

Say for example try looking at THE CLASS PANEL on,
Sydney Country meetings.

Another option i used successfully (Back then) is only betting,
A selection if it appears in certain panels.

For example you may want to back the top=2 in the class panel,
On sydney country meetings when one of them is in the top=2,
Of the Recent form panel.

You will find that certain panels will excell in certain states
On cntry metro prov tracks where others will be useless.

TRY TO KEEP IT WITHIN THE TOP=2 OF ANY PANEL.

Once you go to the 3rd-4th selection the strike rate and losses.
Become almost impossible to overcome without dozens of rules.

I tried looking in the spare room to see if i had any profitable,
Crosstabbing panels that i used for many years alas they,
Were lost in our last house move.

This i can tell you, the method of crosstabbing the top=2 panels.
In certain Race types and state cntry prov tracks is the best way,
To utilize the data.

Good Luck.

Cheers.