thought I would start a new thread for my Maiden system as I have been assessing it and am happy with it so far. Started a year ago but need many more stable runners to be able to have regular bets as my stable maiden runners don't seem to qualify under my few race filters often enough.

Have rechecked all runners and started a data sheet to record when each is bet and when it is not, depending on 4 race filters.

In my stable, I have had 27 members. This includes one from NZ and 7 from Australia that I have just added. I thought I would try Australian maidens to see how they fare. Of the 7 Australian maidens added who started last week, only three qualified as per my race filters and Hello Bombshell won at $4.50 (Tabcorp).

To go back over my rules: follow each horse for no more than 5 bets, stopping at it's maiden win. To qualify as a stable member, the sire must rate as a Grade 2 or better under my rating system based upon stakes winners and winners to runners. The female line is also important as is the cross of sire over broodmare sire.

Attached is an xcel file detailing stable runners and bets

Attached Files

Maiden Stable System.xls (24.0 KB, 1014 views)

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Hi Cosmos,

I had a look on your website and the results look really promising!

When you say horse must not be 'fresh', do you mean first-up or say must not have had a break of 30-60days?

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi TS, must be starting no longer than 30 days since last start or first start...does get the occasional one but saves a few losses as well. As can be seen from the spreadsheet, trainers are apt to move a horse more than 200m up or down from it's last race. From my study over the years, most horses seem to win within the band of 200m plus or minus their last start distance.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

if anyone is still looking...

Stable horses to 21/8/13

31 horses in stable
21 horses have had bets
outlay for $10.00 = $260.00
Return = $870.70
Profit = $610.70 (235%)

Taking 2 race filters into consideration:
9 horses won at first bet
1 horse at second bet
2 horses at third bet

Highest dividend $29.80 (NSW)
Lowest dividend $1.90 (NSW)
From Aug. 2012 to Aug 2013

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

I am surprised no one has commented as this system is based on breeding with just a couple of race day filters. I guess over 200% profit does not appeal to most.

I have updated the spreadsheet I posted earlier and will upload if anyone is interested.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

CosMos,

I had a read and thought they were great results. It does interest me a little but i've never looked at the breeding side of horse selection and in particular almost never look at betting on maiden races.

How much time does it take you to identify horses for your stable?

CosMos,

I agree with Josh, I am interested in how you go about your system but I too never bet on maiden races and the ratings I do would take an eternity if I tried to include breeding because atm my database doesn't have any breeding information to run stats against so I would have to do it all manually.

Thanks for showing interest and replying guys. Much appreciated.

I only have to scan down the sires in a maiden race to identify which will meet the first criteria...Grade 2+ on my rating system. I then use an age filter to further cut the list. I figure that any maiden not having won a race by age 5 is not worth following. I also check how many runs they have had. A maiden with too many races is a worry. Then I look at the dam/granddam of any qualifier to see what they have produced.

A further requirement is based upon the cross of sire over broodmare sire. Must meet certain requirements.

Just ran a test on race 3 at Woodville today and identified initially 2 horses that qualify on age and sire. A quick check of their female line disqualified them so no horses to follow from that race. Took around 4 minutes to do.

If there were any qualifiers then would take a couple of minutes more.

This is an example of using my race filters of days since last start and distance last start to qualify as a bet.

D'Chaparral chosen 8/9/12 but back from an 11 week spell so no bet, runs 8th. Goes for another spell and comes back 8 months later, no bet, runs 2nd. Starts 24 days later but up 600m, no bet, runs 2nd. Next start bet as 21 days and same distance, runs 6th. Next start no bet as up 400m, runs 2nd. Next start no bet as down 400m, runs 3rd.

Have seen a few doing this as the trainer tries to find a suitable distance and they run a place or finish down the track.

Stewards report for D'Chaparral on the race where he would have been bet and ran 6th: When spoken to regarding the disappointing performance of favourite D’CHAPARRAL rider R Hannam advised that from his 1 barrier draw he had been trapped down near the rail which was the worst part of the track and had only battled away over the concluding stages.

So one bet with a reason for failure and all other no bet races the horse placed. Will win if qualifying under the race filters IMHO

Attached Files

Maiden Stable System.xls (24.0 KB, 744 views)

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

CosMos,

So essentially the age, distance change, Days Last Start and Career Starts filters can be applied to any maidens straight away to narrow down the field on a simple spreadsheet.

The time consuming part (as far as I can tell) is looking at the sire, dam etc etc in terms of your grading. I honestly have about zero idea when it comes to the breeding etc so this is all new to me, but I assume you look at various stats of the parents/grandparents to work out the vaibility (grading) of the horse running?

This essentially means that your grading technique is what sets your selections apart as anyone could add the other filters above with ease.

yes you are correct. The setting up of the grading system is what takes time. I grade sires and dams based upon winners to runners and stakes winners to runners allowing for opportunity. A Grade 1 sire is one who has achieved what was expected on average to just above that average, Grade 2 a more successful sire right through to Grade 6. An elite sire or dam is one that has had a profound influence and is elevated to that Grade because of their sons and daughters influence.

In maiden races, even sires that don't make the cut (ie. downgraders) can also throw winners. The trick is to only follow those sires that have that extra class. If I was backing each maiden race per se, the grading would be meaningless.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”