I had some spare time because of today's no-racing.

I looked at No 1 and noticed something that amazed me. The Lay system that I noticed and then fine-tuned is this:

1) Only TAB no 1
2) 8 starters or more.
3) Must have won either it's last or second last start.
4) Ignore "spells"
5) No Group or Listed races.

The results for the past six days according to my reckoning are:
Sat - 28 selections for 1 accident ($2.90 Unitab
Sun - 5 selections for 1 accident ($1.90 Unitab)
Mon - 4 selections for 1 accident ($2.90 Unitab)
Tues - 6 selections for 6 smiles
Wed - 12 selections for 12 smiles.
Thurs - 8 selections for 8 smiles.

I also looked to see if any No. 1 horses had won their third-last start - I can't be 100% certain but I'm quite sure there was only one accident and many smiles. I know this might be a temporary anomaly which could soon correct itself, but...

There were 2 qualifying races where no. 1 began at odds-on, they were beaten.

My only explanation is that the increase in weight for a winner in these lower class races could have a negative impact?

are you talking about Handicap races there michaelg?

No, Party.

The only races I would not apply this method to are Group and Listed races but that's only my opinion. When I tested the method over the 6 days there weren't any of these top-class races, but as they are run by the best horses I would be uneasy to include them in the method.

I am in two minds to give it a go today because I expect it would cut into the time I spend identifying the Lay The Field selections. However I don't expect this method would take long to do it...

Won last start -1.55% POT
Won 2nd L start -0.36% POT
Based on 5.5% commission.
Max Bank risk if Lay betting 1% is 33.9%, that's the killer!
800 days of back testing

Thanks, RP. I'm not really surprised. Lay betting - via S.P or Exchange? I'm now undecided what do do...I might put more thought into it...

MG, you were one of my guiding lights when I first started punting and got me into Lay betting. Anything to help as return thanks.
Cheers

Thanks, RP.

I'll stick with my Lay The Field method because there's a lot of action, but I'll keep the system in the front of my mind and give it more thought.

I'll have a look at it later as it's close to breakeven. Might just need a few tweaks like Home track or Good, Dead etc to turn it profitable.

Thanks, RP.

Quite an interesting proposition the answer to which revolves around the Lay price you can obtain.

Take the scenario presented. That generates a Win SR of +/- 20% (or 80% LSR if you prefer) using a sample of 30,400. Hence on the 'back' end you need a net $5+ to break even. In a theoretical Lay run of 1,000 races you're going to run into 7 runs of 4 outs to play havoc with yr bank.

Based on that, you can do the math on your fingers and determine the minimum net Lay price that needs to be delivered to make the profit you're looking for.