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  #11  
Old 27th October 2017, 07:01 PM
Snert Snert is online now
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I don't believe the weight of money is responsible for the shortening of the odds in most cases. I believe that "the market" knows in advance which horses are favoured by punters and it's something I can't put my finger on, but, "the market" dances to it's own tune.

I know this might sound like a fairytale, and I may not be explaining it so that others understand where I'm coming from, but "the market" dances to it's own tune.

Have a look at massive market shorteners and how the bookies are crying when one gets up, which is not very often. The bookies aren't crying, they'll get you long term on these massive racecourse tips and shorteners, and get you big time.

That's my two bobs worth
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  #12  
Old 27th October 2017, 07:05 PM
Snert Snert is online now
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I'd say uselessbettor has forgotten more about markets than I'll ever know, but I see things from a different perspective, I think. We may see things the same, it's complex.
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  #13  
Old 28th October 2017, 09:27 AM
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Damian Oliver on Egg Tart, later on some scribes suggested how hard it is to win second up in that particular race. History! And at that same meeting wasn't there a horse in the last backed in from 14''s to 3's?
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  #14  
Old 28th October 2017, 11:32 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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This is the kind of Thread I enjoy.
We are all civil and each give food for thought.
Thanks for Posting it.

Cheers.
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  #15  
Old 19th December 2017, 01:21 PM
midas midas is offline
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Coming in late on this, however;
In the old days a bookmaker had his penciller who recorded the bets and, if any good, could tell the bookmaker how much was outstanding against each horse and his market was adjusted to limit further payouts or to attract money towards horses carrying less money to balance his book and give an overall profit.
The TABs don't have to worry about this because the money held is distributed to winners after the race and after the percentage profit is deducted. They really don't care whether an odds on favourite or 100/1 wins they always receive their profit on turnover. The amount of money invested on each horse on a TAB does effect the winning payouts.
Now with fixed price markets we are back to the old days of the bagmen where IF IT WAS ME with my computer processing bets on a race I would be adjusting my prices to accept bets that would always provide a percentage profit on any race. The name of the game for any bookmaker IS PROFIT so the amount of money invested on particular horses is going to effect my price.
My brother-in-law was a bookie for a short time only because he would gamble against particular horses and not balance his book.
Of course there were a few bookmakers of iron nerves who had great betting duals with the legendary punters of their day but they were the exception to the rule.
I would suggest that internet bookies are not gamblers, they work on a percentage profit, and therefore the money invested over all the starters in a particular race is going to effect the price offered at a given time.

Midas
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  #16  
Old 21st December 2017, 09:53 AM
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All your comments are very interesting but I'm not swayed from my beliefs about how a market is formed. Thanks for your comments and you'll be the first to know if I ever consider jumping over to the "dark side" lol.

Different opinions make a market don't they?
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