Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Sports and Gambling
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #51  
Old 27th April 2015, 05:53 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 861
Default

It is interesting that you make the comparison of other tipsters to your handicapping efforts. How has your points start been in comparison with the sport betting companies, prior to each week's betting commencing.

If you can keep improving your handicapping and you feel you have no more improvement and have a very strong correlation to the sports bet companies, I'd suggest you will have completed building your handicapping model, remembering strike rate is all about Handicapping and Wagering is about profit.
You then really need to construct a wagering model.
Remembering your handicapping will identify subsets of games, but the real issue is the Public may wager those games differently each time, so I'd suggest you try and isolate games the public got wrong and then try and put them into subsets as to the reason why they got it wrong, this is a crowd based factor. The benefit will be, the public will wager this type of game exactly the same way and that allows you to find a wagering strategy to suit that type of subset.
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 8th May 2015, 05:39 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

How does this all work again? Gee...have a weekend off due to the representative round and everything is forgotten...(including that woof43 is due a reply). In the meantime, let's see if the almost ridiculous run of success continues:

NRL Round 9

Tips
Brisbane Broncos
Sydney Roosters
Canberra Raiders
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
North Queensland Cowboys
Newcastle Knights
Melbourne Storm
St. George Illawarra Dragons

Value Bets
Penrith Panthers @ $3.45
Wests Tigers @ $3.45
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $3.10
Newcastle Knights @ $2.15
St. George Illawarra Dragons @ $2.60

Stakes are at $29.15.

Knights and Dragons are the two teams that are both tipped and at value (sub-selection method S/R 8/13). They are also at odds <=$2.95 (sub-selection method S/R 8/11). This is compared to the method's S/R for H2H bets of 53.1%, thus far this season.

Last round I included the odds achieved using a Monte Carlo simulation. I ran out of time for that today on account of working on the AFL model - there's a thread for that now, too.
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 12th May 2015, 06:43 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

NRL Round 9 Review

Well, it finally happened. At least I got to enjoy my awesome graph for a couple of weeks....

Tips
Brisbane Broncos
Sydney Roosters
Canberra Raiders

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
North Queensland Cowboys
Newcastle Knights
Melbourne Storm
St. George Illawarra Dragons

Tips this week: 5/8. Overall: 37/72 (51.4%)

Value Bets
Penrith Panthers @ $3.45
Wests Tigers @ $3.45
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $3.10
Newcastle Knights @ $2.15
St. George Illawarra Dragons @ $2.60


Stakes were at $29.15.

This Week
Out: $145.75
In: $0
-100%POT

Overall
Out: $914.09
In: $1226.50
34.2%POT

New Bank: $1312.41 (stakes for next round: $26.20)

Line S/R: 2/2 (100%)
H2H S/R: 17/37 (45.6%)


The Monte Carlo simulation was still doing pretty estimating odds; the problem was value. Either Centrebet and I agreed more often than in previous weeks, or they were feeling particularly frugal. Of the 1048 markets of which both Centrebet and I had a price/estimate, I only judged 39 to be favourable; nearly half the amount of the previous week (see the table from Post #48).

Of course most of these were dupes (line bets +/-). So there were really only 4 bets:

Penrith Panthers +2.5 (-1.5 actually gave a forecast growth of 3.33% vs +2.5's 3.48%; little difference, so I went with the more favourable alternative)

St George Illawarra Dragons +3.5

Brisbane Broncos under 24.5pts

Wests Tigers +4.5

No other teams/matches were represented. With simultaneous half kelly staking and a starting bank of $100, I would've been down $15 - so not a great week on the NRL side of things Almost certainly overdue, but AFL made up for things. Just goes to show: with all matters of investment, it pays to diversify....
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 12th May 2015, 10:31 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Penrith Panthers +2.5 (-1.5 actually gave a forecast growth of 3.33% vs +2.5's 3.48%; little difference, so I went with the more favourable alternative)

3.33% is meant to be 3.66%; makes a bit more sense that way....
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 15th May 2015, 12:51 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

NRL Round 10

Tips (with Monte Carlo Simulation prices in parentheses)
Sydney Roosters ($1.68)
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.98)
New Zealand Warriors ($1.93)
Gold Coast Titans ($2)
Melbourne Storm ($1.68)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.07)
Newcastle Knights ($1.87)
Penrith Panthers ($1.93)

Value Bets
South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 2.80 (centrebet price, $2.54 MCsim price)
Canberra Raiders @ 2.55 ($1.97)

Stakes are at $26.20. At least with fewer value bets, the bank balance won't take so much of a hit this week! Hopefully this "seeding" method will jag at least one.


Regarding bets via the Monte Carlo Simulation, there is a disappointing number once again. Firstly, I'm contesting fewer markets: markets for game total bands, individual team scores and an under/over alternate game total generally don't become available until gameday. Given time constraints (my own, along with the time required to run the simulation) it's not really worth waiting 'til then. Secondly, it's clear that the bookmakers are reading my thread and have stolen all my ideas to foil me!

The largest expected growth of fortune figure for any bet is a paltry 1.18%. The only markets that appear to be advantageous (and I'm still using a conservative estimate of the probability I calculated; probably too conservative - 90% of the value - given how reasonably accurate the model appears to be), are: Canberra Raiders H2H ($1.97 estimate vs $2.62 available), Canberra Raiders at various lines (the best of which is +2.5, $1.67 vs $2.15), either of Melbourne-Souths wins by < 12.5 ($1.53 vs $1.87), and South Sydney by 1-12 ($3.29 vs $4.35). And that's it!

As per evajb001's advice, it pays to shop around for other prices. They're generally much of a muchness at present, but Palmerbet has $2 lines from 4-7pm on Fridays; this bumps Canberra Raiders +5.5 up to have the highest expected growth figure ($1.52 vs $2; 1.72% growth).
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 19th May 2015, 12:04 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

NRL Round 10 Review

Tips
Sydney Roosters
North Queensland Cowboys
New Zealand Warriors

Gold Coast Titans
Melbourne Storm
St. George Illawarra Dragons
Newcastle Knights
Penrith Panthers


Good week for tipping - which means that it's no good for Value Bets... The performance is actually even better than it looks, as my team ratings had Gold Coast and Cronulla getting a draw, for all intents and purposes: 22.533 vs 22.136; the match went into golden point extra time. AND I had Penrith beating Manly by 1 point! (as it transpired)

Tipping this week: 7/8. Overall: 44/80 (55%)


Value Bets
South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 2.80
Canberra Raiders @ 2.55


Unlucky here... Raiders were ran off the park by a Dragons side that suddenly discovered how to score points, but the Rabbits really should've won. Something like 3 disallowed tries, mistakes galore...when a team gets into a habit of losing, it can be hard to break it. It was particularly disappointing for me, given that it makes for two weeks in a row with a 100% loss! As suspected, I was on a bit of a golden run for the first couple of months. I'd only truly expected to get 15% profit, if I was lucky. The 60% POT figure that I got up to was just ridiculous...

This Week
Out: $52.40
In: $0
-100%POT

Overall
Out: $966.49
In: $1226.50
26.9%POT

New Bank: $1260.01 (stakes for next round: $25.20)

Line S/R: 2/2 (100%)
H2H S/R: 17/39 (43.6%)


Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Regarding bets via the Monte Carlo Simulation...
They performed as lamely as I expected they would. Only a couple of markets were advantageous (by my estimation) and were at prices that indicated a miserly return. Now that the season is over a third of the way in, one might presume that the bookmaker is getting even better at setting the maket. There may be some slight advantage over this Origin period where some teams are missing their stars - it's possible I could account for it better. ...but it's as likely that I don't. Perhaps the early season is the time to make your money, hoping things go your way, before the bookies have a chance to get their eye in!
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 22nd May 2015, 06:16 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

NRL Round 11

Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs
North Queensland Cowboys
Canberra Raiders
Newcastle Knights (in a tight one)

Value Bets
Parramatta Eels @ $2.85 (by the "seeding" method, should be $2.35ish)
North Queensland Cowboys @ $2.70 (should be $1.95ish)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $3.00 (should be $2.60ish)
Brisbane Broncos @ $2.55 (should be $2.20ish)
Reply With Quote
  #58  
Old 25th May 2015, 12:41 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

Here is why the tipping has been so tough in the NRL this season: http://i.imgur.com/r4ggXum.png
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 25th May 2015, 04:42 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

In the news today, NRL multi turns $100 into $262,200: http://www.news.com.au/sport/nrl/on...l-1227368009373

The "punter" had $100 on North Queensland Cowboys winning by 8 (at $26) into Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs winning by 7 (at $101). Was it a sensible bet?

I had Cowboys winning by 8 at $21.05. This was the 3rd most likely occurence in the match after Tigers winning by 2 (@$18.47), and Cowboys winning by 2 (@$19.57). The following 3 likeliest margins (Tigers by 4, Tigers by 8, Cowboys by 4) are around the same $21 mark, then there's a drop-off to $27+.

I had the Bulldogs winning by 7 at $80. Interestingly, using my method - which is based on historical distribution of points to model a Monte Carlo Simulation after ratings specify a "seed" scoreline - the Bulldogs were the least likely of the 4 relevant teams to win by that margin; I had Canberra likeliest at $59. So was it luck that the Bulldogs were selected in the multi? Perhaps not. Even if it wasn't a sophisticated, computerised and calculated bet, it's known that the Dogs have kicked alot of field goals in their recent history. I believe it was last season where they became the first team in history to win a game by 1 point, three weeks in a row! So was it a terribly clever algorithm that fingered Bulldogs as the team most likely? Well, it can't be that clever, as their main proponent of the field goal wasn't even playing! Trent Hodkinson has kicked 11 during his 5 seasons at the Bulldogs (and a further 3 in his debut season at Manly), whereas it was only Josh Reynolds's 2nd ever! Given that the Bulldogs still had to score a converted try in the last play of the game to clear the bet....it was a total fluke.

Anyway, my cumulative odds were 1683/1, whereas the odds on offer were 2625/1. So the bet was good value, but given that the odds were so long I'm not sure that it makes it sensible.

The same advantage is gained with a bet at $2 probability, priced at $3.12. If the punter invested $168,400 (i.e. their stake, multiplied by the number of times they'd have to invest it, given the odds, until their bet won) in these bets, they'd get the same result eventually. Only with less of their own cash and more of a bookie's funding it. ....if they weren't banned in the meantime.
Reply With Quote
  #60  
Old 25th May 2015, 11:31 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 930
Default

NRL Round 11 Review

Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs
North Queensland Cowboys

Canberra Raiders
Newcastle Knights


This week: 2/4. Overall: 46/84 (54.8%)


Value Bets (stakes $25.20)
Parramatta Eels @ $2.85
North Queensland Cowboys @ $2.70
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $3.00
Brisbane Broncos @ $2.55


Finally! Whomever it was that jumped onto these value bets 2 rounds ago, has dropped off and let it start winning again!

This Week
Out: $100.80
In: $207.90
106.3%POT

Overall
Out: $1067.29
In: $1434.40
34.4%POT

New Bank: $1367.11 (stakes for next round: $27.30)

Line S/R: 2/2 (100%)
H2H S/R: 20/43 (46.5%)
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:54 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655