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  #61  
Old 26th May 2015, 11:13 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Update on Monte Carlo Simulation performance.

First attachment is the performance last weekend: the first of the major bye rounds, where Origin players were also stood down from the remaining playing teams. Perhaps that was the reason for Centrebet's uncharacteristically poor effort. There were also only half as many games as usual, so any errors in framing markets for a single game - or a huge upset - would be highlighted. Very happy with how my model went. Hopefully it continues to do as well over this representative period.

Second attachment is the cumulative performance over the past 5 rounds. Probably the most interesting observation is where Centrebet's price dawdles along under the line that indicates where actual performance equals the expected performance. As expected it's mostly below the line, as I haven't performed any transform to the price to account for over-round. With the over-round, a $2 (50% chance) should be priced - presuming a 15% over-round - at $1.85 (a 54% chance). That is, $1.85 bets should only be winning 50% of the time.

...this goes out the window for prices $1.65 or so, and under. It seems to be the case that the over-round is not applied uniformly. If someone was using bookmaker prices to estimate true probability, then to be more accurate, they'd have to take this into account. I recall reading on matterofstats that it was his opinion that the over-round appeared to be unequally distributed, to the away team's disadvantage. My brief study seems to imply that it may have more to do with the price rather than which team was playing where (the home teams on the whole would have a lower price on account of home ground advantage).

Why isn't the over-round applied uniformly? At the very low prices, you can't have an over-round and have a market: a true $1.10 chance with 15% over-round is $0.94! I guess also that the fave-longshot bias exists because people aren't prepared to risk money at low odds. Some genius has probably determined the exact point where bookmakers can start making profit without turning off punters from investing.

My estimations seemed to go pretty well. A little bit more wobbly than I would like at 90% and above. I have far fewer markets priced at this range than Centrebet does (212 vs 345). Another 10 successes in the right places would've seen my results as spot-on. It doesn't seem impossible.

Speaking of impossible, the 3 markets I've judged impossible to lose thus far, all won! Centrebet was offering a "guaranteed" $1.03, $1.05 and $1.09, respectively.
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  #62  
Old 28th May 2015, 01:56 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
First attachment is the performance last weekend: the first of the major bye rounds, where Origin players were also stood down from the remaining playing teams.

Second attachment is the cumulative performance over the past 5 rounds.


Looks like I stuffed up attachments somehow....
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  #63  
Old 28th May 2015, 02:05 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 12

Tips and Value Bets are derived via the "Seeding" method. Prices in parentheses are those derived from a subsequent Monte Carlo Simulation.

Tips
Penrith Panthers ($1.88)
Gold Coast Titans ($2.00)
Canberra Raiders ($1.87)
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.66)
New Zealand Warriors ($1.76)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.63)
Sydney Roosters ($1.75)

Value bets (stakes $27.30)
Parramatta Eels @ $3.25 ($2.16)
Gold Coast Titans @ $2.55 ($2.00)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles @ $4.00 ($2.57)
Newcastle Knights @ $3.75 ($2.36)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks @ $2.90 ($2.65)

The Sharks don't quite seem like a Value Bet in lieu of the Monte Carlo Simulation. Would need it to get up to the $3.05 mark BUT will maintain using the method from past weeks, etc.
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  #64  
Old 2nd June 2015, 12:01 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 12 Review

Tips
Penrith Panthers ($1.88)
Gold Coast Titans ($2.00)
Canberra Raiders ($1.87)
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.66)
New Zealand Warriors ($1.76)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.63)
Sydney Roosters ($1.75)

Tips this week: 4/7. Overall: 50/91 (54.9%). The 4 lowest MC prices won.


Value bets (stakes $27.30)
Parramatta Eels @ $3.25 ($2.16)
Gold Coast Titans @ $2.55 ($2.00)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles @ $4.00 ($2.57)
Newcastle Knights @ $3.75 ($2.36)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks @ $2.90 ($2.65)

*sigh* What could have been... Titans did everything they could to lose their game, but it still came down to the Rabbitohs defence dislodging the ball when Burr was over the try line, with moments to go. Sea Eagles were beaten by a try in the last play of their game. Knights were within 4 after the Warriors were gifted 6 points courtesy of a controversial video ref ruling. And the Sharks? Well, the Monte Carlo Simulation was right about them not being value

This Week
Out: $136.50
In: $88.73
-35%POT

Overall
Out: $1203.79
In: $1523.13
26.5%POT

New Bank: $1319.34 (stakes for next round: $26.35)

Line S/R: 2/2 (100%)
H2H S/R: 21/48 (43.8%)
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  #65  
Old 2nd June 2015, 02:39 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Forgot to note bets courtesy of the Monte Carlo Simulation vs prices on offer at Centrebet:

Parramatta Eels
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (+8.5)
North Queensland Cowboys-Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles: Either team by < 12.5

Gold Coast Titans (-1.5)
Newcastle Knights (+8.5)
Sydney Roosters-Melbourne Storm: Either team by < 12.5
Melbourne Storm (+8.5)


Quarter Kelly staking: bank increased 34.7%. Half Kelly: 73.7%. Full Kelly: 160%.


I also opened a Ladbroke's account to take advantage of a promotional offer. They had slightly different odds and quite different markets. I restricted betting here on "surer" things: markets where my estimated odds were < $2 and expected growth of fortune >= 2%. In addition to Eels +2.5, I flukily had Manly and Newcastle +4.5 when they both lost by 4 *phew*.

Typing in the odds on offer is a bit of a pain, so one day I might have to attempt scraping it all (odds are javascript generated, so not straightforward).
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  #66  
Old 4th June 2015, 11:27 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 13

Tips
Brisbane Broncos ($1.51)
Wests Tigers ($1.96)
Canberra Raiders ($1.93)
New Zealand Warriors ($1.98)
Melbourne Storm ($1.75)
Sydney Roosters ($1.71)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.86)
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.76)

Sheesh...how competitive is the NRL? Every chance of another poor tipping performance this round, hopefully that's good news for the Value Bets.


Value Bets (stakes are $26.35)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles @ $3.10 ($3.04 - so not really value per MCSim)
New Zealand Warriors @ $2.35 ($1.98)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks @ $3.10 ($2.46)


Bets derived via the Monte Carlo Simulations are pretty rare this round also. The expected growth is paltry, so I'm not bothering, but if I had to bet I'd choose these markets:

Brisbane Broncos-Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles: Game Total Under 41.5 (my price: $1.54, CB: $1.90)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (+5.5) (my price: $1.80, CB: $2.24)
Penrith Panthers-Melbourne Storm: Margin < 9.5 (my price $1.85, CB: $2.30)
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  #67  
Old 8th June 2015, 10:35 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 13 Review

Tips
Brisbane Broncos ($1.51)
Wests Tigers ($1.96)
Canberra Raiders ($1.93)
New Zealand Warriors ($1.98)
Melbourne Storm ($1.75)
Sydney Roosters ($1.71)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.86)
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.76)

Tips this week: 4/8. Overall: 54/99 (54.5%)


Value Bets (stakes were $26.35)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles @ $3.10 ($3.04 - so not really value per MCSim)
New Zealand Warriors @ $2.35 ($1.98)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks @ $3.10 ($2.46)

This Week
Out: $79.05
In: $81.69
3.3%POT

Overall
Out: $1282.84
In: $1604.82
25.1%POT

New Bank: $1321.98 (stakes for next round: $26.40)

Line S/R: 2/2 (100%)
H2H S/R: 22/51 (43.1%)


MCSim bets (had I bothered to bet them, in spite of the paltry returns):

Brisbane Broncos-Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles: Game Total Under 41.5 (my price: $1.54, CB: $1.90)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (+5.5) (my price: $1.80, CB: $2.24)
Penrith Panthers-Melbourne Storm: Margin < 9.5 (my price $1.85, CB: $2.30)

Quarter Kelly staking: bank decreased 2.3%. Half Kelly: 4.6%. Full Kelly: 9%.
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  #68  
Old 10th June 2015, 08:25 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 14

Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.88)
Sydney Roosters ($1.78)
Gold Coast Titans ($1.89)
Melbourne Storm ($1.67)

Value Bets ($26.40 stakes)
West Tigers @ $3.10 ($2.17)
Sydney Roosters @ $2.25 ($1.78)
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  #69  
Old 16th June 2015, 12:00 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 14 Review

Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.88)
Sydney Roosters ($1.78)
Gold Coast Titans ($1.89)
Melbourne Storm ($1.67)

Tips this week: 2/4. Overall: 56/103 (54.4%)

Value Bets
West Tigers @ $3.10 ($2.17)
Sydney Roosters @ $2.25 ($1.78)

Stakes were at: $26.40

This Week
Out: $52.80
In: $141.24
167.5%POT

Overall
Out: $1335.64
In: $1746.06
30.7%POT

New Bank: $1410.42 (stakes for next round: $28.20)

Line S/R: 2/2 (100%)
H2H S/R: 24/53 (45.3%)


I didn't list the Monte Carlo sim bets but they were both successful:
Wests Tigers (+8.5)
Sydney Roosters (+8.5)
Both Quarter and Half kelly staking gave a 72% profit.
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  #70  
Old 17th June 2015, 11:45 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL Round 15

Tips
Wests Tigers ($1.88)
Canberra Raiders ($1.87)
Gold Coast Titans ($1.78)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($1.81)
Newcastle Knights ($1.94)
Brisbane Broncos ($1.79)
Sydney Roosters ($1.82)

Value Bets (stakes are $28.20)
Wests Tigers @ $2.80 ($1.88)
Penrith Panthers @ $2.95 ($2.27)

Monte Carlo Bets
Wests Tigers @ $2.80 ($1.88)
Penrith Panthers +4.5 @ $2.17 ($1.72)


I listed the skill vs luck calculations for an AFL team's season results in the other thread, here is the "luck component" for the last 10 NRL seasons:
2005 - 0.849056604
2006 - 0.396226415
2007 - 0.486650896
2008 - 0.418726374
2009 - 0.401002506
2010 - 0.569620253
2011 - 0.311486048
2012 - 0.456997778
2013 - 0.425029516
2014 - 0.633802817

Much less consistent than the AFL figures. The huge result in 2005 was due to very close competition: with 3 weeks remaining, every team bar one could've made the finals (and that lone team was only 2 points further adrift!). The more evenly matched the teams are in skill, the more the final result is due to luck (imagine a team playing itself, since they're exactly matched the only thing that separates them is the ball bouncing the right way, or the ref's interpretation, etc. That is, favourable random chance; which is "good luck", in sporting parlance).

The average figure is 49%. Does that indicate that it's a difficult sport to handicap, given the relatively high component of luck? Or does it mean it's a great sport to bet for value, given that teams can often win contrary to what their respective skill levels would imply?
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