Yeah, funny that.

Hi Zoe,

Firstly, I had nothing to do with crash being banned.
Yes, I thought he was harsh, but I'm more thick skinned than to run crying to anyone.
I have never complained to management about anyone on this forum.

Often times I've had some good hearted banter with crash, so I'm not offended, but he had one winning day "handicapping" and proceeded to tell everyone on more than one thread, that his way was the "only" way.

Firstly, he had a great day and his handicapping paid off, but posting 2 selections does not make his way the only way.

Chrome Tipped Arrows does rely on longshots, you are correct.
I never implied that it was a winning mechanical system, nor that it would hold up even next month anywhere on that thread.

I am making more money on the Best Bets than on the longshots, and the Best Bets are showing a small loss. I have bet the Best Bets in a very different manner (no staking plan) to achieve much greater success.

Having said that, it is only one of my strategies, and I don't think that other methods won't work or work even better.

Both yourself and crash seem to be very much of the same opinion, that you cannot entertain anything other than your own methods.

Seeing as you brought up "joking" and am I involved in selling systems, well no I am not. I sell a database which contains four FREE systems based on my ability to create VIABLE systems.

I can also tell you that anyone who has bought my database can verify in real time, that every one of the four FREE systems is still profitable to this minute.
No handicapping required.

I started with these mechanical systems 2 years ago, and they have stood the test of time, even though I only have 40% events in them.

What does this mean anyway, what has been left out?

Is personal judgement 60% of the criteria for handicapping methods???

How can handicapping account for a poor ride today, bad luck today, the horse off colour today, the trainer not serious about winning this one today etc etc etc.

Your generalization was just that, and having a science degree does not make you right. Your statement was skewed with no supporting facts, just personal opinion.

How do you know for a fact that very few punters understand systems?

How do you know that mechanical systems do not select odds in their favour?

This is a very bold statement, because I can prove that one of the reasons all my systems work, is because the systems select more winners where the odds are in my favour than against!

We are not discussing science, advanced maths or anything else, but pure logic.

It is just a disagrement, there is no malice or personal agenda against you or crash. I just find it frustrating, when someone is closed to anything other than what they do.

And no, as far as I'm concerned you don't get banned, I had absolutely nothing to do with crash having a holiday.

Tell him I say hi, and wish him a Merry Christmas from me.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Zoe,
I'm not 100% sure where the 40% known, 60% unknown figures come from but I assume you are referring to 60% of the factors which determine the final results being attributable to "noise", luck or random events (like blocked for a run for e.g.). BTW I'd be interested to know where you come up with that figure.
If this is the case I would assume (and I use no mathmatical basis for this, just common sense, experience and a garage sale book on elementary statistics :-) that a larger database would be a distinct advantage. The reason you get a half presentable curve on something so tenuous (in my opinion) as barrier advantage over 100,000 races is because these random events tend to cancel each other out. In a small database they don't get the chance to cancel out.

KV

Hi to everybody.

Rather that answer the threads here individually that find it odd that Crash and I hold similar opinions regarding successful punting after 19yrs. together. I have played devil's advocate to many of the ideas he once held. Now he has changed some of them to his profit as it has turned out. His approach is far more intense than mine.
I have too many other things, including work to do. I did back the Diva for her last 3 Melb. Cup wins though and Vintage Crop at 15/1 before that and had good successes during the spring.. Crash missed all the Cups except 2004. His last win was Rain Lover! Don't laugh too loudly though, he is a very shrewd punter with nothing personal to prove in that area [at least].

Chrome you wrote:

'How can handicapping account for a poor ride today, bad luck today, the horse off color today, the trainer not serious about winning this one today etc etc etc.'

That's exactly what handicapping can have insight into. Studying trainer patterns, race selections and lead ups and sudden major Jockey engagements among many other general things. Intuition alone after long experience has more brains than any system. A system is as blind and dumb as my PC to everything, although good rules can make them seem to have intelligence. Indeed many of them fain intelligence very well.

A system has no way of knowing that it's selection for a race has another runner [that doesn't fit the system rules] in it that is going to eat the system selection alive. A good handicapper can spot that in a flash. He can also be selective about the odds he selects. Most systems can't. Not all systems though of course, but most. A handicapper can think, a system is a dumb Bitc..and they usually [nearly] all spit the dummy after a decent run, and not of outs either.
A handicapper has the possibility to grow and improve as a handicapper, even though not all do. A system remains a moron for life and as about as interesting as watching paint dry. OK if that's your thing I suppose. Whatever takes a punters fancy.

I will be butting out of this conversation now, I have a very busy week ahead of me. It's been both interesting, provided me with greater insight into the punter mind [not being used in a derogatory sense] and a generally informative experience. A bit strange too, as this is a mens world here and I feel I am trespassing.

All the best to all and sorry I never answered all posts,
Zoe

(In Homer Simpson voice) - Who's doing what now?

All the best .

The short time you were here added a large base of knowledge that I hadn,t considered previously.

My regards to"CRASH "

Cheers.
darky

Hi Zoe,

We will have to agree to disagree on this subject.

I'll stick with my "dumb" old "moronic" systems that get beaten by handicapping every time...


BETS 2369
WIN RETURN $2,781.71
WIN PROFIT $412.71
WIN POT 17.42%
WINNERS 769
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $3.61
MAXIMUM DIVIDEND $29.40

Profit comes from more than 14 winners based on maximum dividend
Profit comes from more than 114 winners based on average dividend

Purely mechanical.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

G'day Chrome

Have been reading the Systems Forum with interest the past few weeks....

Just wondering from your stats what the timeframe is for your 2369 bets and your average bets per week.... just curious (seems a lot of bets for a system - which appeals to me).

Thanks in Advance

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Hi Stix,

The time frame is approximately 5 years.

It gives around 8 to 10 bets a week, city race meetings only, so we're talking Wednesday and Saturday betting etc.

Level stakes it gives one to two units profit per week consistently.

Of course, there are ways to maximise the profit without staking, such as exotics, but I've left that out of the debate, because we are talking win betting only at this stage.

I should also add there there are multiple bets on the same horse a number of times, when they qualify under more than one system. These results are the combined 4 systems all together.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Cheers Chrome

Good luck with the system(s)

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!