Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Sports and Gambling
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #5191  
Old 30th July 2017, 09:06 AM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 40
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by grizzle
you would have my interest, ray
I'd definitely be in Ray
Reply With Quote
  #5192  
Old 6th August 2017, 07:38 AM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 40
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.
Hi Ray

Will you be using this channel for your EPL predictions or another one. If so can you send me a link to it please

Thanks
Reply With Quote
  #5193  
Old 7th August 2017, 07:23 PM
DCFC DCFC is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 156
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
I'd definitely be in Ray

ditto Ray
Reply With Quote
  #5194  
Old 11th August 2017, 05:16 PM
westman westman is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 1,267
Thumbs down

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

I know it comes down to business, but there is something to be said to tradition too.

The Australian Rugby Union have decided to discontinue the Western Force's licence
Reply With Quote
  #5195  
Old 16th August 2017, 03:45 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Hi Ray

Will you be using this channel for your EPL predictions or another one. If so can you send me a link to it please

Thanks
[/i]

I will use this channel for sure. I was gone for over a month and am catching up with a lot of oblations. I have to relocate my soccer computer software and run at least one past year of EPL matches to update my parameters. Then I can make the predictions you all deserve for the current season. It may take me a couple of months to get up to speed.

Until then, a hearty cheers!

Ray Stefani
Reply With Quote
  #5196  
Old 16th August 2017, 08:29 AM
DCFC DCFC is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 156
Thumbs up

good one Ray
Reply With Quote
  #5197  
Old 16th August 2017, 12:15 PM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 40
Default

Thanks heaps Ray
Reply With Quote
  #5198  
Old 9th September 2017, 03:24 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
Default English Premier League Predictions for week 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
I will use this channel for sure. I was gone for over a month and am catching up with a lot of oblations. I have to relocate my soccer computer software and run at least one past year of EPL matches to update my parameters. Then I can make the predictions you all deserve for the current season. It may take me a couple of months to get up to speed.

Until then, a hearty cheers!

Ray Stefani


Hi to all,

As I promised, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I include a page to explain my soccer predictions. I’ll also post this in the soccer section. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani
Attached Files
File Type: doc EPL week 4 pred.doc (29.5 KB, 439 views)
Reply With Quote
  #5199  
Old 13th September 2017, 03:44 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
Default EPL week 5

Hi guys. I thought I would post my EPL predictions here again.

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled. An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani
Attached Files
File Type: doc EPL week 5 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 402 views)
Reply With Quote
  #5200  
Old 19th September 2017, 03:25 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
Default EPL Week 6

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani
Attached Files
File Type: doc EPL week 6 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 382 views)
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 11:24 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655