Yes Party, that is exactly where I have lost it.
I knew it was in that area but I had no idea what I was missing.
So let's say, if I had lost 400 and still needed to make my target of 100 I need to make a profit of $500 on the next.
Using Peterpan's formula ( many thanks Peterpan), if the next bet was at 2.9 I would need to divide 500 by 2.9 to find the bet. Approx. $173.
This makes my outlay now $573
That is where I'm having trouble;
To make $100 on a 2.1 return I need to bet $96. If that loses I need to make $196 on the next bet @ 2.5. 196 / 2.5 = 79 approx. That will return $197 approx. So I have now outlaid 96 + 79 = 175 for a return of $197 ????
I just don't get it I'm afraid.
Gnarkley

TO make $100 on a 2.1 return is 100 divided by 1.1 equals $91.

That loses so now have to make $191.

Next bet is target $191 and you say next return is 2.5 so that makes your odds to bet to 1.5. So $191 divided by 1.5 = $128 (rounded up ), so now you have $219 out in bets.
You get a win so that is 2.5 x $128 = $320.

$320 minus your bets of $219 = $101 profit. (your target).

You must remember when working to decimal odds you have to take off 1.

BUT after all that DON'T DO IT.

Thanks Peterpan,
I just dropped my young bloke off at footy and on the way back I was thinking that that might be my problem. Thanks for clearing that up.
The 'Don't do it' sounded somewhat ominous, why not?
Gnarkley

Because no matter how good you think your selection methods is and how good you go, one day it will bite you and you will blow the bank.

I was thinking of just backing the favourites in the first 3 or 4 races of the day at each meeting until I had cleared the profit for the day. With the regularity of favourites getting up in these races I thought it might be a safe route.
Over the last month I think the longest run of outs was 12.
I thought if I had a bank large enough to cover twice that number it might be sufficient.
You'd be damn unlucky if you had a run of over 20 outs, on favourites, wouldn't you?
Gnarkley

To that end, does anyone know the strke rate of favourites for the first 3 or 4 races of the day?
Gnarkley

Most of us, maybe even Peter Pan, but anyway DEFINITLY ME have made that mistake, to the cost of big $.

You are are right in the sense that most of the time it WILL work, but alas, when it doesn't you will lose all of what you have made ++++++++++

You may have a fighting chance if you stagger the selection method in some way say, Monday to Mnday, Tusday day etc etc but not really,after many 1000's of bets the result will be the same i.e. LOSS.

Now if you think of anyway that you can stagger that to the EXTREME, you just "might" take the killing losing sequence out of your lifetime. So it is still possible but alas,only by "luck"

If you want to be certain of winning there are only 3 ays:

(1) if you rae a backer, only back where you can get set at less than 100%, you may be surprised to learn that is possible many many times (ask Mark?)

or(2) LAY, where you can produce a book at say 90% so after commissions you are 5% in front

or (3) make a web site selling tips and/or ratings, and youre in!

Hi Party,
Thanks for the information. I'm not sure I follow your advice though;
only back where you can get set at less than 100%
I'm a real newbie!
I assume that the bad streak could wipe you out in just a day.
What about only betting on the first 4 races of the day and if you don't get a result from those 4 you carry over until the next day. That way the unlucky streak would be broken up over a number of days. How long can a bad streak go on?
Gnarkley

How longs a piece of string?
Years ago I once had a losing streak of 25 losses straight
Cheers
darky.