Interesting question LG!
I am certainly of the opinion that a mare will never develop into a good strider unless she is trained to be a good strider. Most trainers do not go to the trouble of extra training, to improve stride. Basically most trainers will keep a horse healthy, fit and try to improve distance or speed. However, usually stride is something that most trainers don't have the know how to improve. It takes a tremendous amount of work to improve stride, and a good natural strider is always preferable.

A mare can improve out of sight depending on what's been holding her back.
Mares are notoriously moody and can get out of sorts for many reasons.
When a mare puts it all together on the day, she can improve dramatically.

If I give the example of mares that run favourite by age, this might shed some light:

All Mares Favourite
29.80% S/R

4yo Mares Favourite
30.31% S/R

5yo Mares Favourite
28.85% S/R

6yo Mares Favourite
28.09% S/R

7yo Mares Favourite
26.15% S/R

>7yo Mares Favourite
28.30% S/R

I'd say it depends on the mare, but overall they do tend to train off with age, it also depends on what age they started their race career.

As it stands, with current training methods and the cost of time, it is highly unlikely that a mare will increase it's stride length, unless she has had an injury stopping her stride out.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

As per usual, very detailed answer.. thanks mate.

It would seem that good Mares peak around the 4yo mark then start to slowly taper off. If they are not good striding types from the outset, they are unlikely to become so later on in their career. Also that on any given day, a mare can outperform in comparison to its previous track record - sometimes remarkably so i.e. perform to a much higher rating which could be many lengths difference between expected/average run and it's actual performance on the day. Hard to pick when this might happen from what I gather. Perhaps one indicator might be the quality of the trainer as per his track record (with mares?) i.e. how well he places/prepares her, especially if there is some indication that she is ready to outperform. And also regards the rider on top??

A mare can improve out of sight depending on what's been holding her back.

Do you have any feel for whether this is more likely to occur;
1. at the start/middle/end of a campaign
2. with specific gear changes (or lack of)
3. with mares, as opposed to other types.

Apologies for the extra Qs here but your take and stats on this matter seem to concur with my observations so i am keen to peel back a few more layers, if possible!

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Sorry I can't give a definitive answer here LG, because it depends on so many variables. I think it can occur at any time during the campaign and that is why so many mares are unpredictable. Of course, blinkers shadow rolls, w inkers and the like can improve mares considerably, depending in her disposition at the time.

Here's some more food for thought though....

Of 2,163 winners over $50.00
71 were colts
299 were fillies
1,272 were geldings
49 were entires
472 were mares

So are geldings full of more surprises than mares?

Not so, there are significantly more of them running around.
There were only 69,395 of them running around at odds of 50/1 or better
versus 170,284 geldings, so more than double!

But as you say, there are more layers to this than a Sara-Lee cake

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Point taken Chrome, thanks for your input on this.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Some very interesting comments by Chris Waller this week.
As I've noted, his training style is to set them to run off the pace and come home late. As Canterbury is a leaders track, all his runners yesterday had no hope. Not only were there no winners, there were no placings at all.
This is something to note for future when it comes to leader tracks in general.

Chris says that the track was particularly biased yesterday and this sort of bias only occurs around four times per year. In my opinion the stats tell a different story and it seems he is grasping at excuses again.

I have great respect for Chris as a trainer, but I think these things should be pointed out to put things into perspective. He has handled Altius in a very poor manner in my opinion, and his excuses just don't hold water when things don't go as planned.

He certainly isn't the Lone Ranger though.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Seriously - Canterbury approx 4 times a year a biased leaders track?????? Im no ************, but what i can 100% say, is that canterbury is a leaders track all year round every year every week. Results have told us that for years.

Best TJ.

There you go TJ, I thought his statement was laughable to say the least.

He has had some winners there when he decides to train them that way, but he's justifying his poor results yesterday with some perceived magical bias that only manifests itself 4 times a year.
The track was a Good 3 all day, so it wasn't like there was anything unique.

He's a fantastic trainer no doubt, but he's really letting himself down lately with these antics.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Yep no question about his training abilities, possible that he expects success most of the time regardless of any track he takes them too which would leave some owners scratching, due to the way he likes to train them sitting midfield/off the pace/out the back etc if they are running at those tight turning tracks, which in turn leaves his horses vulnerable.

Subject horse Kinz Funky Monkey finished 8th on 1st September in an Optional Claimer at Del Mar. It was a 6 furlong race (1200M) and she struggled from the home turn, was a little wide, but faded badly in the straight.

Possible explanation is that this race was held on the Del Mar All Weather track and not the Turf track. However, I'm inclined to think there is more to this story than meets the eye.

Her form is now 321138 and after running in Stakes races they put her in an optional claimer. The question begs, is she injured? She has always made ground late, that's her trademark, and she faded in the straight to run last in a lower class race.

There were also two Stakes races on the program, so that says a lot that they opted for the Claimer.

Will be keeping an eye out to see her progress back on the turf track.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Randwick R2 #7 PHOTON WILLIE 2nd ($16,750 prizemoney)
Randwick R4 #11 FOREVER LOVED unplaced
Randwick R8 #10 THAT'S A GOOD IDEA WON $2.79 (BFSP Net) ($48,750 prizemoney)

Flemington R2 #2 CAUTHEN unplaced
Flemington R3 #6 BONNE NUIT unplaced
Flemington R5 #17 GREGERS unplaced
Flemington R6 #8 PUISSANCE DE LUNE 2nd ($63,000 prizemoney)
Flemington R7 #3 REBEL DANE unplaced
Flemington R8 #7 OCTAVIA unplaced

So far the "stable" has had 21 starts for 5 winners, 4 seconds, 2 thirds and earned $429,300 in prizemoney.
Betting action is minus 5.74 units. 27.33% LOT

No wonder breeders and trainers are raking in the bucks and the punters are left hollow

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg