Righto, given all the data and information on here, I’ve no doubt I’ll develop a successful system. I’m in the process of going through all the posts and have a couple of general comments to make.



My list of 100 excuses given by a trainer, jockey and scribes as to why a certain horse didn’t salute puts paid to the best of systems having a SR of better than an arbitrary 40% ….. It also demonstrates clearly to me that the best prospect on the day will not always win. In any race, there may be half a dozen horses with legitimate “excuses” for not winning, which were actually in place BEFORE the race even started. For example; didn’t acclimatise to surroundings, jockey fued spilled on to the track, bad blood count. Now, the average punter wont be aware of any of these “excuses” so he was on a loser before the race had begun. Add these to the list of excuses to be found DURING the run, or the analysis AFTER the run, and it’s a miracle any horse actually wins.



1) We don’t need to pick the best prospect on the day.



I believe the average person is conditioned to believe if there was a winning system then everyone would be doing it. I’m of the opinion that there would be literally hundreds of systems that would show a profit in any particular year ….. all you have to do is back fit them from the form, and I’m not just talking one or two bets per year here, I’m talking a couple of hundred ! So if you can backfit and get a decent system, then all one has to do is to forecast and get a decent system ….. Bingo ! “The more things change, the more they stay the same !” Nothing’s new ! 30% on Favs all over the world, 45% top two tipsters from the year dot, and horses still surprise trainers and connections. I have one particular filter (14 days), when applied to my “consistent horse” plan improves the outcome massively. This has worked way back to 2004 when I started collecting and keeping form guides. You need the right combination for the circumstances at hand. I have a pal in QLD who has been punting systems all his life. I have not interrogated him as it’s his day job. He’s not a big punter but wins a few G’s each week and has been doing so for 30 years. He has many different systems which he massages, watches the SR and plays the odds.





2) No one size fits all ….. localize your system.



I will continue to post my thoughts as I continue with my evaluation of this site. I’ve picked up a couple of beaut ideas for eliminating an “in the market runner” on a regular basis. One only needs an edge !

Gee ...... that post is surely turning convention on it's head Barny. Obviously you've scared off the unwashed from "basking in the sunshine of your intellectual brilliance", but for mine, I'm breathless in anticipation waiting for your next instalment of your insights into the world of the punt !!?!

Thanks for that Barny ..... my next instalment may be a week away as I still have a fair way to go in my analysis of all this information on this site.

Luv ya Barny ......

Yeah, luv ya too Barny ..........

Hi Barny,

Just checked in today and am waiting for the next installment!

We are lucky that we have some very interesting contributors on this site who now and then expel some true words of wisdom. One such tidbit of information has made me reassess one of the systems that I run. Although it is still very early days it has turned it from an "also ran" to one showing extreme promise.

Obviously, not all filters work for all systems or plans otherwise we would all end up with the same selection and on the path to punting oblivion - there goes any value! Your statement "localise your system" is very profound as what works for me in Melbourne may not work in Sydney, Brisbane or elsewhere. In fact, what may work at Caulfield may not necessarily work at Moonee Valley or Flemington due to any number of variables.

As I said I'm looking forward to your next installment! Thanks for your offerings.

I also believe there are many systems that show yearly profits.

One could put the lot up here, but very few would ever follow them.

The first thing most punters would do, is change the rules, then say, that system of yours does not work.

I believe most punters can make 1.5% a day if they had the discipline to stop ,but very few can stop , that's why they will continue to lose.

Here's a Lay system that shows a profit every day.
RULES
Target TAB No.2 for every race.

Horse's Trainer must have a 7% or less win strike rate.

Bet .5% of bank flat stakes no recovery.

8+ runners.

Price 4.00-99.00

Stop for the day once 1.5% profit is made.

__________________
Cheers.

In my first post I definitely meant BACKTEST !!!!!, not backfitting.

Backfitting is what those scoundrels do to get "successful" systems then flog it to you for $500 !

Sorry !

Well said Barney!
How else would you know if your system works if you do not
"BACKTEST !!!!!"?

Huge difference!

Also, Lately I see some posters here saying that is OK for a system to lose for some time, and it's the "long run" (nobody dares to specify how long is too long but) that matters.

Utter ****, Yes you can have a losing day or two, three even, but any more than that and I would question what's happening?

The only answer can be that you are betting on races-horses
outside the system's researched and proven parameters or those parameters are loosely defined and accept races and horses it wasn't supposed to.

Remember when children spill a bag of candy in the dust?
First they pick up the cleanest, etc... in the end most of the candy gets eaten, same as most of the horses will be bet by most punters system or not!

Or just lack of discipline,

Good luck

**** ?????

The trouble with back fitting /back testing is your looking for a pattern for the winners.
However the pattern may never reproduce.

Far better to develop a system around logical rules common to all the best handicapping methods.

Cheers
darky

back fitting = looking for a pattern for the winners.

back testing = develop a system around logical rules common to all the best handicapping methods. and test it!

As I said HUGE difference!

Good luck

Ah.Thats what you meant.
Cheers
darky

Well, I’m getting there. A lot of info on this site and one thing that has been mentioned that I actually needed some help on, was to get away from the purely mechanical system. We’ve all got good systems that have just failed or for some reason, ‘a cosmic hand working against us”, that when we put our hard earned on the systems bombs …… or maybe it wasn’t so good to start with eh ?!?



One thing that’s been niggling away at me for yonks is that we “have to find the class horse” in the race then assess its fitness and another ten things ….. its then regarded as a system or it's an intelligent person evaluating the form. Either way, most punters will be on it, the bookies will take their percentage, the TAB will take its percentage …… SO WHY BOTHER !???



We know that a very small percentage of punters win (2% ?), so why would we hang on to the coat tails of the majority ? Eh, eh, eh, eh ????



It’s been staring me in the face for years ….. My premise is that there are too many variables in this caper, not the least of which includes bad luck, which makes it difficult to get into the right headspace to develop a system with a touch of logic thrown in (that makes you stand away from the other 98% a little). Adding extra filters, which I have done gets you closer and closer to BACKFITTING ….. the more you respond to the past, the closer you get to backfitting. Let’s look at last start winner within 7 days for example. Heck I don’t even know if it still wins, but it will win over certain periods, that’s for sure ! You can add a couple of logical filters to it and over the next 6 months you find it might break even. You then add another filter to take out a couple of the losers ….. you’re now backfitting ! ya cant win !!! You give it away …… Someone wins with this system don’t they ? ….. The ones who do are those that apply a little logic to decide whether to bet or not, anything other than a mechanical approach. Anything that cannot be measured will do. Like what ? Maybe you keep a look out for those horses in your system who have peaked, or who have come from a seemingly hopeless position on the turn (very often not repeated !)



You need one element in your system that uses your judgement only. eg: One of your filters may be that a horse had to run placed in its last three runs. What if it was palced in two of its runs, and the other run it was hit by a seagull, lost 5 lengths, and ran 6^th. It might be something simple like this that can turn a “nearly system” into a winning system.



It’s right up my alley with my 100 reasons for losing psyche …………