OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

10th July 2015, 12:01 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,456

Impact Values

I had some old sheets laying around with some of these values i used to use about 10 years back, thought i would put them in a current sheet and see how they perform today using my current ratings to prices module.

Code:


3Y-MDN  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 1
No Selection	        R/Price
3 UNDERCOVER LOVER	2.01
2 GREEN STYLE	        2.74
1 DR DEEJAY	        5.96
	
MAIDEN  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 2
No Selection	        R/Price
8 OL' BROWN EYES	2.65
3 REVELIO	        2.93
4 VINNIE LOVES ME	4.20
	
MAIDEN  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 3
No Selection	        R/Price
4 GOWAN BRAE	        3.08
6 KNIGHT ERRANT	        5.60
2 ENEMY'S DEFEATED	8.32
	
CL3  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 4
No Selection	        R/Price
1 WORTH THE WAIT	2.03
6 ALL CLEAR	        3.28
2 CARTON	        6.46
	
CL2  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
3 JOBIWOOD	1.67
2 BEST OF TIMES	3.32
1 SUPERSTITION	12.54
	
FM-CL1  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
2 BERGDORF	3.03
3 I DOUBT I CAN	5.12
8 CONCETTA	6.08
	
CL1  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
7 STEERING	3.02
2 LONHIE ROCKS	3.52
3 YEAGER	9.32
	
CL5  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
3 SUBSTATION	3.19
1 BASHAN	3.42
10 EYE WINSOME	4.72
	
MAIDEN  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
11 PARIS JET	4.01
3 JONAH HEX	4.04
7 HOT LAVA	5.38
	
MAIDEN  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
9 RED HOT DANE	3.59
10 SWEET HOLLY	5.89
2 LUCKY SOLDIER	6.02
	
CL1  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 3
No Selection	R/Price
7 SUMMER SONG	1.78
6 MON SAMEDI	3.14
2 ELEGIES	8.00
	
CL2  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 4
No Selection	R/Price
2 AYHAM	        1.98
3 MARKET GURU	3.63
4 FIRST NOEL	8.54
	
MAIDEN  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
11 FRAUD	2.58
8 THE RUN	4.91
5 LEICA BOOT	5.80
	
FM-CL2  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
3 PIXIE GAZE	2.35
2 SAN SABARTO	6.36
7 VICTORY LASS	7.04
	
BM-65  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
7 INTREPIDO	2.64
9 SUBARC	5.58
1 IWILLDOIT	5.70
	
CL3  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 8
No Selection	        R/Price
1 HAMMOND LANE	        0.88
2 HOT VINNI	        65.77
12 TRUE COMMITMENT	85.00
	
MAIDEN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
7 SULLIVAN BAY	1.75
3 FELICETTE	2.52
2 PERSIAN MAGIC	10.20
	
2Y-MDN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
8 DEJA BLUE	1.24
4 LANDMARKS	8.00
12 SHINING STAR	9.54
	
MAIDEN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 3
No Selection	        R/Price
7 JIM'S DANCER	        2.99
8 STARS AT NIGHT	3.76
4 THAT'S A SLAB    	4.58
	
3F-MDN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 4
No Selection	           R/Price
8 LA CICCIOLINA	           2.02
2 BLACK ZIGGY	           3.32
1 BEAUTIFUL ASSASSIN 	5.26
	
BM-64  $17500	GEELONG Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
9 SUN FLASH	1.11
1 WORK THE LINE	9.07
4 RENAUDIN	10.09
	
BM-78  $30000	GEELONG Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
2 INSPECTOR	1.54
5 HOLY HEART	5.89
8 KISS CHASEY	6.99
	
BM-64  $17500	GEELONG Race No 7
No Selection	        R/Price
2 MACROBIUS	        2.53
6 ESPRIT DE SOL	        5.75
7 GIFT FROM HEAVEN	8.45
	
BM-64  $30000	GEELONG Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
9 GAUTENG GAL	1.32
2 HAROLD BLUETOOTH	8.39
5 SHE'S ELLIE	9.34
	
MAIDEN  $15000	WAGGA Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
1 CANNY HENRY	2.59
3 EXCELLENT ORATORIO	4.25
10 SPARE PARTS	6.85
	
3Y-MDN  $15000	WAGGA Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
3 CATCH YA SLATER	2.86
12 HANDFUL OF ACES	4.17
9 SUPEROO	9.70
	
MAIDEN  $15000	WAGGA Race No 3
No Selection	R/Price
2 EL PAPPA	3.53
8 WILD DIVA	3.59
11 FIERY REDHEAD	4.47
	
BM-70  $15000	WAGGA Race No 4
No Selection	R/Price
3 MR SOMMERVILLE	2.71
1 MUTUAL TRUST	4.19
2 JO JO GIRL	4.87
	
CL1  $15000	WAGGA Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
4 NORTHERN FURY	1.20
9 SAY YOU'RE SORRY	14.33
1 THE IMP	15.48
	
BM-70  $15000	WAGGA Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
2 EKLANDS	4.35
4 SMAKATUS	5.61
5 MAGNARO	7.29
	
BM-50  $16000	WAGGA Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
1 SAINT AQUILINA	3.47
4 ITCHYZARIZ	3.97
8 COBRA KAI	7.78
	
BM-50  $16000	WAGGA Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
1 SIR OTTAVIO	3.37
9 CAPTAIN HADDOCK	3.83
4 KING TIDES IN	5.80
	
BM-55  $15000	WAGGA Race No 9
No Selection	R/Price
8 WILD IRISH BOY	1.75
1 LEUCURA	3.87
3 YARRAGEE ROAD	9.14

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

10th July 2015, 12:56 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,456

Here is the comparison with my ratings.

Code:


3Y-MDN  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
2 GREEN STYLE	2.62
1 DR DEEJAY	3.75
3 UNDERCOVER LOVER	4.20
	
MAIDEN  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
4 VINNIE LOVES ME	3.17
8 OL' BROWN EYES	3.65
3 REVELIO	4.13
	
MAIDEN  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 3
No Selection	R/Price
4 GOWAN BRAE	2.78
6 KNIGHT ERRANT	5.82
3 GALIANO	7.81
	
CL3  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 4
No Selection	R/Price
1 WORTH THE WAIT	2.81
4 OUTRAGED	4.71
2 CARTON	7.13
	
CL2  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
2 BEST OF TIMES	4.43
3 JOBIWOOD	4.58
7 BENTLES	5.93
	
FM-CL1  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
2 BERGDORF	3.82
1 MARASKA	4.51
3 I DOUBT I CAN	6.37
	
CL1  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
2 LONHIE ROCKS	2.81
16 WORLD SERIES	6.63
3 YEAGER	8.44
	
CL5  $16000	IPSWICH Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
12 A FINE DROP OF RED	3.61
1 BASHAN	3.92
10 EYE WINSOME	5.73
	
MAIDEN  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
1 SEEKTOWIN	4.20
7 HOT LAVA	4.68
2 SPIRIT OF AN ANGEL	6.23
	
MAIDEN  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
10 SWEET HOLLY	4.22
9 RED HOT DANE	4.71
1 I AM THE SCULPTOR	4.89
	
CL1  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 3
No Selection	R/Price
2 ELEGIES	2.73
7 SUMMER SONG	4.25
6 MON SAMEDI	5.59
	
CL2  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 4
No Selection	R/Price
2 AYHAM	3.02
3 MARKET GURU	3.12
1 AUTUMN NIGHTS	6.28
	
MAIDEN  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
11 FRAUD	4.28
8 THE RUN	6.80
1 BEEGEES	8.26
	
FM-CL2  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
4 RHYTHM OF CUBA	4.23
5 ZUPAFLIRT	4.44
1 SHE'S INVINCIBLE	5.20
	
BM-65  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
1 IWILLDOIT	3.92
7 INTREPIDO	4.23
4 RACECRAFT	5.22
	
CL3  $15000	GUNNEDAH Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
1 HAMMOND LANE	3.03
3 SHARP NOTE	3.51
6 IDLE SHIVER	4.44
	
MAIDEN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
3 FELICETTE	2.85
1 HAY PRESTO	2.93
7 SULLIVAN BAY	3.87
	
2Y-MDN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
8 DEJA BLUE	2.40
12 SHINING STAR	5.82
4 LANDMARKS	6.09
	
MAIDEN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 3
No Selection	R/Price
7 JIM'S DANCER	2.78
8 STARS AT NIGHT	3.81
2 I WANT CANDY	7.11
	
3F-MDN  $17500	GEELONG Race No 4
No Selection	R/Price
1 BEAUTIFUL ASSASSIN	3.22
2 BLACK ZIGGY	3.49
8 LA CICCIOLINA	4.41
	
BM-64  $17500	GEELONG Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
1 WORK THE LINE	2.77
4 RENAUDIN	2.94
5 ROCK TEMPLE	6.85
	
BM-78  $30000	GEELONG Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
2 INSPECTOR	3.23
1 CROSS OF GOLD	4.84
5 HOLY HEART	4.84
	
BM-64  $17500	GEELONG Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
5 BOOGIELICIOUS	3.11
6 ESPRIT DE SOL	5.34
2 MACROBIUS	6.19
	
BM-64  $30000	GEELONG Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
2 HAROLD BLUETOOTH	4.08
1 MILITARY	5.31
5 SHE'S ELLIE	5.31
	
MAIDEN  $15000	WAGGA Race No 1
No Selection	R/Price
1 CANNY HENRY	2.62
3 EXCELLENT ORATORIO	4.01
4 DOOGANS RISE	4.85
	
3Y-MDN  $15000	WAGGA Race No 2
No Selection	R/Price
3 CATCH YA SLATER	3.25
1 ARIAKE FIRE	4.50
12 HANDFUL OF ACES	4.50
	
MAIDEN  $15000	WAGGA Race No 3
No Selection	R/Price
2 EL PAPPA	2.54
6 I'LLTELLYOUSOON	7.33
1 BEAUT BOPA	8.81
	
BM-70  $15000	WAGGA Race No 4
No Selection	R/Price
3 MR SOMMERVILLE	2.28
2 JO JO GIRL	3.64
6 ARIBAA	5.87
	
CL1  $15000	WAGGA Race No 5
No Selection	R/Price
2 SKY CRUISER	3.80
3 RUSTY'S DELIGHT	3.96
4 NORTHERN FURY	4.74
	
BM-70  $15000	WAGGA Race No 6
No Selection	R/Price
7 NRIANGI	3.73
6 RULES POINT	4.29
2 EKLANDS	5.43
	
BM-50  $16000	WAGGA Race No 7
No Selection	R/Price
1 SAINT AQUILINA	4.09
4 ITCHYZARIZ	5.19
2 COMBINE	6.07
	
BM-50  $16000	WAGGA Race No 8
No Selection	R/Price
5 ASUNDER	4.30
1 SIR OTTAVIO	4.56
4 KING TIDES IN	6.60
	
BM-55  $15000	WAGGA Race No 9
No Selection	R/Price
1 LEUCURA	2.19
8 WILD IRISH BOY	5.89
11 OH NO GECKO	6.92

10th July 2015, 05:09 PM

garyf

Banned

Join Date: Oct 2011

Posts: 366

Can only comment on Wagga R7 & 8.

Looks fine with what I am looking at,
Both sheets.

Good Luck keep them going.

Cheers.

10th July 2015, 05:14 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,456

Interesting, both ratings lost about 6.5% overall today with a few different results, will check full results later.

10th July 2015, 05:15 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,456

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyf

Can only comment on Wagga R7 & 8.

Looks fine with what I am looking at,
Both sheets.

Good Luck keep them going.

Cheers.

I know for me personally i would only look at Class 2 and 70+ rated races with no restrictions such as age or sex.

10th July 2015, 07:04 PM

garyf

Banned

Join Date: Oct 2011

Posts: 366

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I know for me personally i would only look at Class 2 and 70+ rated races with no restrictions such as age or sex.

That's one way of doing If you can sort your races into groups,
Like I do say FAIR-AVER-GOOD-POOR or even individually if,
You have the data that is a huge plus.

Not betting on age related races is also a good thing for you,
That means you can check your race-types & identify female,
Against male then sort them into an exact age.

Maybe 3yo-f or older mares in some of your race types,
Are appearing in your top 1-2-3 selections but can be removed,
For higher strike/rates.

The age of your selections combined with the race type they,
Are appearing in is one of the most important things I look at.

Some hardly ever win yet continually rate well in mine as well.

Seeing you can I.D. non age related races this is a huge plus for sure,
In this sorting out procedure.

You can also get an individual race(s) & see what order wins them,
For you and most importantly where.

Often you will find your top pick winning at a certain age(s),
In say Syd-Cntry in a certain race type

In other situations it will be your 2nd or 3rd pick at another,
Age group in another race-type in another place say Qld-Prov etc.

You have already done the hard yards.

You have a sound selection method.

You have it automated.

You have history in terms of data.

All now that is to happen is to determine sorting,
Out when & where to back them & how to sort out,
Which one of the 3 it will be.

Believe me while your top pick may have the best,
Strike/Rate win the most, or lose the least you cannot,
Go down that path.

Everyone of your picks can win just the method in the sorting,
Out procedure is all that is left.

This unless you use the right method(s) can lead to disaster,
So please be careful with the process you adopt.

It will make or break you.

Have been there before & lost a considerable,
Amount of money I am not proud to say taking the wrong filters.

My top 1-2-3 kept maintaining the strike/rate but,
I invariably was on the ones that did not win.

Hope this bit helps.

Cheers.
Garyf.

11th July 2015, 12:41 AM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,456

Sounds like a plan there, the only thing i have really done is decided that particular races work best for me, mostly open and above and the higher graded races midweek, i guess because of more exposed form, but also looking at just today's there were winners all over the place, i listed the top 3 but financially it is better to just stick with the top 2, combined they have atleast a 40% win sr on the right races.

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