Facts

1. Winners carrying 59kgs or more in flat races in Australia represent a small percentage of total winners.
2. Most winners rose less than 3kgs from their last start.
3. If you look at the winners who carried 59kgs or more, or rose by > 3kg they are usually quality horses or are far superior to their opposition.

If anyone has any comments, please stick to the facts, rather than opinions or here say which is not supported by reliable statistical data.

[ This Message was edited by: Facts only on 2002-07-03 16:47 ]

Well if you were sticking to facts, you wouldn't need to use words like "most" and "small percentage".

Just my opinion (oops, not supposed to give those).

Placegetter

They are facts, oops. I forgot here say and hollow opinions seem to be the order of the day.

I haven't given exact %, because I choose to keep them to myself.

Only those privilaged enough receive more precise data.

Saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west is still a fact, without producing % on it. Common sense should prevail, however the problem is that common sense is not very common.

Must be a run-on at Births, Deaths & Marriages.....the form is the pink one -Change Of Name!

How can you possibly be this negative after only four posts? We have tried really hard lately to tone down the negativity. Let's start again.

Hi Facts Only, nice name, welcome to the forum. We hope we are privileged enough to learn your special systems and methods over time.

Placegetter

TAB No1 wins more races than any other TAB no.

Horses weighing 59kg are 'most often' TAB No 1. ( Unless a picnic race or steeples or hurdles etc)

A rise in weight is a penalty to even the horses chances of winning.

What is class? I have always wondered that, like people who try to tell me the flavour of an orange.


[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-07-03 19:08 ]

Fryingpan, my interpretation of class is this...

Class is the ability to perform at a higher level consistantly. For example, there are days where some people can hit a round of golf at better scores than the pros. However, Tiger Woods will hit those scores consistantly over many circuits during the year.

Golf is different to racing but the same principles apply.

[quote]
On 2002-07-03 19:06, Fryingpan wrote:
"TAB No1 wins more races than any other TAB no."

This is true. However, the majority of times when No 1 wins, it's carrying less than 59kg, even if you only looked at handicap races.

In some handicap races the topweight is carrying only 56kgs, while the minimum is 52kg providing a condensed field.

Here are some stats taken from hundreds of races across 3 states, excluding hurdles and WFA races. Sat Metro only

52-58.5kgs = 91% of winners
59kg+ = 5% of winners
Less than 52kgs = 4% of winners

In regards to the winners which carried 59kgs or more, all but one was ranked 1st by $$$ per race which contradicts the following statement made earlier:

"You assume that the amount of prizemoney a horse has won directly links to the ability of a horse to carry weight. No relationship whatsoever!" (Equine Investor)

In future please stick to facts, not opinions, not here say or myths.

Words without facts to back them up are hollow and almost meaningless.

WRONG AGAIN!

Of course the horse with the top $$$ carried the top weight, I think everyone accepts that the topweight is topweight because the handicapper has assessed it to be.

Where you are wrong is relating that to a horse's ABILITY to carry that weight.
Both mutually exclusive equations. Obviously with only 5% of winners you just proved my statement correct -thankyou.

Rosehill
Horse	Weight	SP Odds	Finish
Obsession	59kg.	$8.00	6/12
Recruiting	61.5kg.	$5.50	10/11
Domero	59kg.	$5.50	3/12
Marrakesh Express	60.5kg.	$3.50	11/11
Matter Of Honour	60kg.	$10.00	8/10
Glenrowan	60kg.	$13.00	3/10
Skiddaw	59kg	$8.50	2/12
Flemington
Horse	Weight	SP Odds	Finish
Windigo	61.5kg.	$3.80	5/11

FACT:
You don't provide statistics whatsoever to say how MANY horses carried over 59kgs, if you are going to be picky on others I think you should be consistant yourself.





[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-03 23:46 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-03 23:50 ]