OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#51

6th September 2012, 10:48 PM

mattio

Member

Join Date: Jan 2011

Posts: 268

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianian

I under stand about the race class thing as I have found group racing was really bad for 1st and 2nd P/P favs which is why they are properly good value for over’s as the percentage has to go somewhere owing to the fact every body wants a piece of the good horse and the bookies don’t have a problem laying them.

Even though I generally don’t bet in maid through to class 5 as a rule more so to rely on class helping the form and sometimes its hard to break old habits from doing form as systems are about finding the winner at the right price any where you can which is not quite the same as doing from because you need the form to work across the field to give you the best chance of success on overs.

I used to do form but it is very hard to watch your best bet of the day that you spent hours on research and videos to come up with either a)miss the start, b)get bumped or checked from a slow horse, c)get slaughtered by the jockey, d)not want to race that day e)get distracted by a nice looking filly (haven't we all?) or f)any other reason or all of the above.

I prefer to spend my hours researching my systems now and if a selection wins that's great and if it loses I don't stress because I know I will have another gem thrown up again in the near future or even in the next race. The most important thing is to do what works well for YOU, stick with it and refine it where you can.

Cheers,

Mat.

#52

6th September 2012, 10:58 PM

The Ocho

Member

Join Date: Aug 2010

Posts: 1,037

e, especially if your horse is a filly as well......not that there's anything wrong with that.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

#53

6th September 2012, 11:08 PM

ianian

Member

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 74

Its true

Its not so funny you should that as when betting in class racing for over’s I always eliminated filly and mare or both types of races and here we are again many years later so there must be something to it.

#54

6th September 2012, 11:13 PM

beton

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

I only hope that the moderator puts things into perspective and sees where the real contribution to the forum is, which is the purpose of the forum and which gets and retains members in the forum. It is about sharing and constructive critique.

#55

7th September 2012, 12:03 AM

Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline

Member

Join Date: Mar 2012

Posts: 1,237

Beton, given that UBs system host is yet to submit to the baton pressure of my goon squad...

Can you do a wee test for me(no need for the test jar mate)?

Selection: Tab No 1
Filter: Fav at jump AND/OR Barrier no 1

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

#56

7th September 2012, 12:31 AM

garyf

Banned

Join Date: Oct 2011

Posts: 366

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattio

Barny, you are obviously of the belief that all filters work on all tracks and in all states, this is simply not true. Sydney and Melbourne have so many tracks that all play differently whereas Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have only a couple of tracks making the racing much more consistent, even if the class of racing is not as strong.

The same goes for ratings and pre-post prices, some have much better success in certain states and even certain tracks so "blanketing" everything is not logical.

If you were smart you would use your database to find what works best at different tracks, states, meeting types (M,P,C) and any number of other variables. I have started betting a new group of systems that are based on strengths at certain tracks and so far my forward testing has mirrored by backtesting - today at Cranbourne was a great example with winners in races 1,2 5 (check the divs) from only 5 selections.

If you can't/won't agree with the statements I have made then you are oblivious to any kind of reasoning and I wish you all the best with your own systems. Mine do just fine and I actually bet on them as well.

I had to look 3-4 times at who posted this as i thought it must be me,
As apart from the winners at Cranbourne this is exactly what i would,
Have answered basically word for word as this is exactly what i do(doing)

Cheers.
Gary Mattio.

#57

7th September 2012, 08:47 AM

beton

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

Sorry LG can not at the present. B

#58

7th September 2012, 08:49 AM

Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline

Member

Join Date: Mar 2012

Posts: 1,237

OK mate

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

#59

7th September 2012, 09:20 AM

ianian

Member

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 74

SOMETIMES-"senior texting code."

ROFLACGU: Rolling on the floor laughing and can't get up.

IMHO: Is my hearing aid on?

#60

7th September 2012, 09:52 AM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

Back to where we were without the distractions of personal attacks. I very kindly put up a winning system that didn't have the usual 'form'. I also alluded in my posts to just considering TAB 1. So here are the rules as posted plus the inclusion of only TAB 1.

TAB 1
Last 5 runs 2 to 24
Runs since spell > 4
METRO
Last run exactly 7 days ago

It shows a POT of 27.02% and given the cyclical nature of racing it's not enough to be confident that it will continue to repeat. Agreed? A POT of 27.02% sounds good but you might all of a sudden have a couple of losing years.

So dudes, where else recently on this forum have you been given a system that shows a POT of 27.02% ???? With one more filter I get the POT at 81.29% which is good enough to ride out the cyclical nature of racing and show a profit year on year.

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: Advanced Search
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

	To advertise on these forums, e-mail us.