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  #101  
Old 16th January 2018, 12:09 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
An hour well spent and ties in nicely with a book I'm currently reading called "Quiet", which is about the success of introverts versus extroverts.



I thought it was " Introvert...Extrovert..... doesn't matter" hee hee!
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  #102  
Old 16th January 2018, 10:15 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Sorry to hear that UB. You've been going great though and I suppose you were due for a slight correction.

Thanks for keeping us all informed of your progress.


Hi The Ocho, UselessBettor's two losses have nothing to do with a correction being due.

UselessBettor's two losing days were a result of 1) being tired and didn't pay attention and 2) overconfident, distracted and lack of focus. These are UselessBettor's words.
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  #103  
Old 16th January 2018, 07:15 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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UB, did you work Gunnedah R8 today?, and if so how did it treat you?
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  #104  
Old 16th January 2018, 08:52 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
UB, did you work Gunnedah R8 today?, and if so how did it treat you?


I wasn't betting today as I was travelling to the big city . I just double checked and a few of my systems layed it turning the race into a loss. Nothing too significant though.

I also checked if I would have been betting in that race and I would have seriously thought about excluding it from the winners. But after the loss the other day I would probably have gone wider and included it because of this statistic:

Course : 50% strike rate.
Distance : 18% strike rate.

But realistically its really hard to check after a race as its easy to see things which you may have missed before the race. Hindsight bias. But then I see it had 0 wins from 40 runs on Good ground so I probably would have excluded it and lost on that race as that would have been something that pushed me to exlude it from the selections.

So yeah that race would have been a loss. 1 or 2 losing races a day is ok as you recover that with the wins. But its a problem when I lose 5+ races like the other day.
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  #105  
Old 16th January 2018, 08:54 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Sorry to hear that UB. You've been going great though and I suppose you were due for a slight correction.

Thanks for keeping us all informed of your progress.


Yeah losing sucks. I never said making a profit was easy (was feeling that way for a while though). I'll hopefully bounce back this weekend with some better results.
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  #106  
Old 16th January 2018, 09:00 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Hi The Ocho, UselessBettor's two losses have nothing to do with a correction being due.

UselessBettor's two losing days were a result of 1) being tired and didn't pay attention and 2) overconfident, distracted and lack of focus. These are UselessBettor's words.


Just goes to show you need to be switched on every day. This is where I should probably implement a few processes into my handicapping to ensure I don't do stupid things. For instance I should never exclude a horse when I can not tell its form so if a horse is resuming from a spell then it should be an automatic selection as I have no way to gauge if its improved during its spell. Other rules would include horses rated high by any of the ratings I use and also horses which have shown the ability to be competitive (within in a few lengths at a similar distance in its last few runs).

If I just stuck to including all horses that met the above I would have had a very good Sunday instead of that loss.

Oh well you live and you learn. Keep in mind my unit size is 1K per race so Sunday was only a -4.4 unit day which isn't that bad when I have only had two losing days so far.

A losing day is always a good opportunity to learn something too which hopefully I have.
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  #107  
Old 16th January 2018, 09:11 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
UB, did you work Gunnedah R8 today?, and if so how did it treat you?


Scrap what I said before as I was just looking at that horses runs and did not check the ratings or the competitors. I just checked my ratings and it was regarded as the 2nd best horse. In that case it would have been an automatic inclusion so yes I would have won on that race had I been betting it. The ratings I use are below:

- Rated within 2 lengths of the best rated horse
- Rated second best run by a horse (in that race) in the last 3 months.
- Rated within 1 length of the best rated horse (in that race) for the last 12 months
- 2nd highest rating for a horse on good ground (career)
- 2nd highest rating for a horse on good ground (6 months)
- 2nd highest rating on tatts ratings (come on who doesn't use these ratings)

Further to this comparing to the horses at the lower odds
- Big class step up for the likely winners
- Poor records at the distance for the likely winners.

Based on the above I would have excluded the race as there was no clear chances. This was a race where the market clearly got it wrong to price the horse at such long odds.

Mark thanks for asking the question as it was good to actually go through the race closely to see what was going on. Definitely a race to pass on in my opinion though after assessing the form.
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  #108  
Old 16th January 2018, 09:19 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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For those interested I am in Sydney at least once a fortnight (today being one of those days) and I would love to catch up, grab a coffee or lunch and talk handicapping/form/betting.

If your interested drop me an email or let me know your contact details here and we can arrange a meet up.
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  #109  
Old 16th January 2018, 09:44 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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My opinion only, but things are looking good for you. The two losing days were self inflicted wounds and need not have happened, so your record could be / should be very exciting for you!
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  #110  
Old 17th January 2018, 05:28 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
My opinion only, but things are looking good for you. The two losing days were self inflicted wounds and need not have happened, so your record could be / should be very exciting for you!


Appreciate that Snert. I agree as well and the losing day will just help me concentrate better.
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