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  #141  
Old 24th March 2018, 09:38 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Going to have to find a few more long shots to get a sniff Sportz!

Cheers LG
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  #142  
Old 26th March 2018, 12:04 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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It's not impossible. They don't even have to be big longshots. Just have $30 on 2 winners around the $8-$10 mark and that will probably do. On Friday night, one of your picks Thronum looked all over a winner until grabbed late. If he had held on, you'd be in the top 4 now!
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  #143  
Old 26th March 2018, 08:05 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
It's not impossible. They don't even have to be big longshots. Just have $30 on 2 winners around the $8-$10 mark and that will probably do. On Friday night, one of your picks Thronum looked all over a winner until grabbed late. If he had held on, you'd be in the top 4 now!


Odds of hitting two $10 chances are 1%. So its in the realms of doable. With a bit of an edge and skill you are probably closer to 2%-3% chance. So as Sportz says it is not impossible and worth a good shot at.

I notice all day long those 1-2% chance getting up.
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  #144  
Old 26th March 2018, 08:25 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Odds of hitting two $10 chances are 1%.


If they are independent events, why multiply the probabilities if you don't mind me asking UB?

Cheers LG
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  #145  
Old 26th March 2018, 08:50 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
If they are independent events, why multiply the probabilities if you don't mind me asking UB?

Cheers LG


Its a standard probability calculation. The chance of two events occurring is the probability of the first event x the probability of the second event (which is only correct if you can correctly determine the probability of both events and one event is not related to the other event). For example the chance of raining today is 30% but the chance of you getting wet is 20%. That doesn't mean you have a 6% chance of getting wet if it rains today, its probably much higher.

I don't want to get into the law of large numbers vs the the law of averages (not the right thread) but its an interesting topic. The law of large numbers makes the calculation correct.
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  #146  
Old 30th March 2018, 02:15 PM
william william is offline
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Default SATURDAY MARCH 3

OAKBANK

R5-3 ZED EM 30W
R8-1 HEART OF A LION 20W-10P

ROSEHILL

R6-1 GAILO CHOP 20W-10P

ASCOT

R1-2 AT THE READY 20W-10P
R4-1 RED ORA 20W-10P
R5-8 ARCTIC STREAM 30W
R6-1 GEE BOSS 20W-10P

Thanks
William
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  #147  
Old 30th March 2018, 07:09 PM
Dillwar Dillwar is offline
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Rosehill
R1 #1 Spin $5 win
R2 #1 One Foot In Heaven $20 win
R5 #6 Mongolian Marshal $10 win
R6 #1 Gailo Chop $25 win

Caulfield
R6 #8 Top Of The Range $10 win

Thanks Sportz
Good luck all
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  #148  
Old 31st March 2018, 08:43 AM
Percentum Percentum is offline
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All $15 E/W thanks, Sportz:

MELBOURNE
R2 no3 Crystal Fountain
R3 no6 Sabotage
R4 no14 Miss Vixen
R5 no5 Aroha Mana
R6 no13 Addison
R7 no10 Fastnet Dragon
R8no4 Fastnet Tempest
R9 14 Highland Beat

ADELAIDE
R3 no3 Wasabi Bob

SYDNEY
R6 no4 Harlem
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  #149  
Old 31st March 2018, 10:25 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Moruya R2: 6. JACQUI CADENTE PLACE ONLY $25
Warracknabeal R6: 8. CARIBBEAN PEARL PLACE ONLY $25
Rosehill R6: 1. Gailo Chop PLACE ONLY $10
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  #150  
Old 31st March 2018, 10:28 AM
kiwi kiwi is offline
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Red face

sydney

r.1 FUTOOH
r.2 ARBEITSAM
r.3 BURNING PASSION
r.4 DAYSEE DOOM
r.5 MONGOLIAN MARSHAL
r.6 AUVRAY, AMBITIOUS
r.7 UNFRORGOTTEN
r.8 ECUADOR
r.9 STONEBROOK

All $30 win, thanks for the comp, Sportz


Hoping for the big winners, but..., wishing you all good luck for the semis
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