Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > RaceCensus
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 17th August 2014, 04:13 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,820
Default RaceCensus Database

Thought I'd post some interesting data from RaceCensus.

Last start winners on country tracks that started favourite...
33.39% Win
-12.40% Loss

Last start winners on provincial tracks that started favourite...
33.04% Win
-13.50% Loss

Last start winners on metropolitan tracks that started favourite...
35.15% Win
-10.59% Loss

First starters on country tracks that started favourite...
37.36% Win
-13.96% Loss

First starters on provincial tracks that started favourite...
36.55% Win
-15.86% Loss

First starters on metropolitan tracks that started favourite...
34.92% Win
-19.00% Loss

Makes for some interesting thought.
Took less than 5 minutes for the entire database to process and calculate over 15+ years of data
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 300,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 19th August 2014, 08:42 PM
Vortech
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Thankyou CP

Where there's dirt there is gold...
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 19th August 2014, 09:32 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 988
Question

My data on things like CP's database is out of date.

Last time I looked backing favourites lost 12.3%,
At around a div of $2.8 and a strike/rate of 31%.

These figures are about 6-7 years old.

But "IF" close to the mark in CP'S stats anything,
Better than the above is a starting point beating the average
albeit a losing one.

So last start winners on metropolitan tracks.


Cheers.
Garyf.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 20th August 2014, 03:06 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,820
Default

I've only revealed half the story here, because it wouldn't be fair to existing clients. The data is correct, but there is further advantage breaking it down into categories.

Garyf, I've done a quick test on Metropolitan favourites for the last 15 plus years, here are the results:

31.60% Strike Rate
11.52% Loss on turnover
$2.80 average dividend

Then...

Jan 2008 to July 31st 2014
32.71% Strike Rate
8.96% Loss on turnover
$2.78 average dividend

Things to consider: There have been many changes in track surfaces since 2008 and race classes. We have also had one or two champion horses.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 300,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 20th August 2014, 04:09 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 6,656
Default

Not surprised.
The trick is to find the ones that are not false favs.
Not hard if one can read form.
i.e Backmarker at 1000 M

At a disadvantage at any distance in fact.
(more prone to checks ,blocks ,wide running.)
__________________
When you live live in clover . when your dead your dead all over.

Last edited by darkydog2002 : 20th August 2014 at 04:12 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 20th August 2014, 04:31 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 988
Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I've only revealed half the story here, because it wouldn't be fair to existing clients. The data is correct, but there is further advantage breaking it down into categories.

Garyf, I've done a quick test on Metropolitan favourites for the last 15 plus years, here are the results:

31.60% Strike Rate
11.52% Loss on turnover
$2.80 average dividend

Then...

Jan 2008 to July 31st 2014
32.71% Strike Rate
8.96% Loss on turnover
$2.78 average dividend

Things to consider: There have been many changes in track surfaces since 2008 and race classes. We have also had one or two champion horses.


Thanks, will enter this current new data 2008=>as a reference & benchmark,
For myself in the future.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 20th August 2014, 05:46 PM
Dale Dale is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 432
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I've only revealed half the story here, because it wouldn't be fair to existing clients. The data is correct, but there is further advantage breaking it down into categories.

Garyf, I've done a quick test on Metropolitan favourites for the last 15 plus years, here are the results:

31.60% Strike Rate
11.52% Loss on turnover
$2.80 average dividend

Then...

Jan 2008 to July 31st 2014
32.71% Strike Rate
8.96% Loss on turnover
$2.78 average dividend

Things to consider: There have been many changes in track surfaces since 2008 and race classes. We have also had one or two champion horses.


I wonder what role field size has in all this. Id say field size and a more intelligent market.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 20th August 2014, 06:00 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 988
Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
I wonder what role field size has in all this. Id say field size and a more intelligent market.


Yep the 1st part Field/Size, obviously the smaller the size,
The higher the strike/rate & the lower the odds.

I can address all this with my own data, what I didn't,
Have was a benchmark figure of "ALL" favourites for,
The last 6 odd years just to use as a guide to any new,
Strategies I may want to look at re that stat..

Market being more intelligent I will leave for others,
With data-bases to comment.

Certainly with my own, nothing is showing up as,
Of recent years but you may be right.

Cheers.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 20th August 2014, 06:25 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,820
Default

From my studies, there is no evidence to suggest that the market is any more intelligent (as a whole group), than it was 50 years ago.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 300,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 20th August 2014, 06:59 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,820
Lightbulb

Favourites by raceday:

Monday: 31.70% S/R
Tuesday: 32.43% S/R
Wednesday: 31.64% S/R
Thursday: 32.01% S/R
Friday: 32.02% S/R
Saturday: 31.74% S/R
Sunday: 31.39% S/R
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 300,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 02:15 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655