Posing a question here as I haven't done any research for this angle.
Wondering if anyone has had any success with Betfair futures in racing and Sports.

Example: Browlow medal, the favourite is injured so won't be polling any more votes. He's drifted remarkably and there's a new favourite. Ergo, it's an easy green book.

Melbourne Cup, Cox Plate, US Womens' Open Tennis, Mens' Open Tennis, Formula One Drivers Championship, Doncaster Mile etc etc.
If a horse is scratched you lose nothing because you layed it early.
Seems more future favourites get rolled and green books are available, to favourites that go on to win in future markets.
That's the hypothesis anyway.

World Cup, Reality TV (Big Brother ugh) etc etc.
Green books everywhere in ratio to losses.

Anyone had experience or is it a mirage in reality?

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Guess it works really well or really badly :lol:

Had a think about this while driving last night, the drawback is that your money is tied up for a long time, but I seem to remember someone was doing this successfully on the Betfair forum years ago with good success. As long as you lay first, you won't lose your stake.

Perhaps when I sort things out, I'll post a running result.

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Have only done this when backing first CP, example was So You Think the year he ran in the Melb Cup, iirc I backed him at around $8's before his Cox Plate win & then layed off at around $4's on MC day for a very nice collect regardless of the outcome.

But of course if he had been scratched at any point I do my bet cold & seeing it was the largest single bet I have had on a nag, was a restless couple of weeks let me tell you.

Also another issue to consider is the separate markets - the 'ante-post' & the 'day of the race' markets, in my example above I had to have enough cash for the original ante-post market bet & then another stake for the lay bet on the day, because as the markets are separate you cannot offset the back & lay bets, if you get my understanding.

Thanks for the reply stugots, I see your point the antepost would need to also incorporate the live market as far as horses go.
I'm looking at various sports and while I'd lose on many of them with the favourite going on to win, for example Serena Williams is good lay value at around $4.00 for the US Open, she's still not 100% medically. I would have lost on the likes of Schumacher and Vettel etc. But this year would have made a killing taking short odds on Vettel for the drivers championship etc.
NRL, AFL etc.
Glad your Antepost bet paid off no risk, was a really good bet, but I would have had nightmares every night that he might get injured or they just decide to scratch him for any other reason.

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& for those reasons I didn't continue with those type of bets, in hindsight while it paid off it was also one of the more reckless bets I have ever made.

I am confused at how the layers can't lose but the backer could if scratched

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The layer gets the backers money because the horse never ran. Futures are "all in", just like the bookies. In the live market all bets are off and backer gets a refund, but antepost rules are different.

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Ok, wasn't sure it was the same, so i guess the main downside is you are offering a higher price for the fave if they go on and win, but like you said many different things can happen along the way so as to trade out on settling day.

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One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
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