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  #211  
Old 12th August 2017, 06:17 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
I cant believe the Eels lost (tears up multi bet ticket, with a sigh)

Last time the Storm played the Roosters, the Storm were missing all their big names to the Qld camp.
Yes the Roosters were missing a couple too, though not nearly as many.

The Roosters beat a young Storm side by 1 point, a full strength Storm side is a very different proposition.
Ahhhh, yes you're right. I was just flicking through the results on the NRL website when I wrote the above. As it wasn't a bye week I figured they would've just selected their best team. Forgot that they decided to rest The Big 3 that round. I'm watching the Storm-Roosters match now: the weather's terrible, the refs are very much in the forefront, anything could happen in the second half....

I couldn't believe Parramatta either... I thought they were going to continue on their hot run and tease their fans with glory, only to fall short deep in the finals. Knights have been playing well, but.....that was unexpected. It was meant to be the easy leg!
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  #212  
Old 13th August 2017, 07:11 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 23 Review

Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.47)
Parramatta Eels ($1.09)
Brisbane Broncos ($1.20)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.40)
Melbourne Storm ($1.07)

North Queensland Cowboys ($1.96)
Canberra Raiders ($1.15)
Wests Tigers ($1.71)


Cowboys-Panthers was very close, per my modelling. If North Queensland didn't lose two players in the first half it may well have gone their way, but the Panthers used their numbers advantage to wear them down. Parramatta being beaten was the surprise of the round. Though the cellar-dwelling Knights have been playing well, the Eels looked like they were hitting their straps and set for a full-blooded tilt in the finals - until Friday, at least.

I said I was surprised with the conviction the model had regarding the Storm and the final scoreline bore my human opinion out: Melbourne only scored in the final minutes to draw ahead. As I said earlier, I think the Roosters are shortchanged a little with this system where size of victory equates to a measure of skill/strength. They would probably be better served with a 'just win' model as they have more of grinding, just-do-enough way of playing. The main issue though was that the most attention is paid by the model to the two most recent rounds. And these rounds saw Storm trouncing Manly trouncing Roosters. It was a superposition of results.


Value Bets
Parramatta Eels (-15.5) @ $1.91 ($1.68 - so not value, need $1.92)
Brisbane Broncos (-6.5) @ $1.91 ($1.43)
Melbourne Storm @ $1.37 ($1.07)
Melbourne Storm (-8.5) @ $1.91 ($1.23)
North Queensland Cowboys @ $2.80 ($1.96)
North Queensland Cowboys (+6.5) @ $1.91 ($1.40)

Canberra Raiders (-8) @ $1.91 ($1.55)
Wests Tigers @ $3.00 ($1.71)
Wests Tigers (+7.5) @ $1.91 ($1.30)


Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
I like Brisbane at the line - which undoubtedly means that the Sharkies are going to roll them...(Maloney is back after all and they have a good recent record against both the Broncos and the Broncos in Brisbane). I'm still considering throwing it into a multi though, with Parra, Sydney Swans and West Coast Eagles H2H. Boosted odds will probably get you close to $3.
Was not expecting the Eels to foul that bet... I was very lucky, for presentation's sake, that the bet just fell short of value using the Monte Carlo simulation as further price estimate.

The other bets that missed weren't bad ones. Things just didn't go our way...
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  #213  
Old 15th August 2017, 06:35 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 24

Tips
Parramatta Eels ($1.27)
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.16)
Brisbane Broncos ($1.46)
Melbourne Storm ($1.35)
Sydney Roosters ($1.60)
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.38)
Canberra Raiders ($1.34)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.71)

It looks like an easy round of tipping, but after Parramatta's loss last weekend....anything could happen!

Value Bets
Newcastle Knights @ $4.65 ($4.06 - so not value)
Wests Tigers @ $4.40 ($2.77)
Wests Tigers (+12.5) @ $1.91 ($1.38)
North Queensland Cowboys @ $2.37 ($1.38)
North Queensland Cowboys (+4) @ $1.91 ($1.24)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $3.75 ($2.49)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (+10.5) @ $1.91 ($1.42)

The Tigers don't look the worst prospect. Thanks to the Newcastle Knights' great run there's now a real battle for the wooden spoon. Woods and Tedesco would also be keen to leave the club on a good note (the latter perhaps keen to impress in front of his 2018 side, the Roosters). Mid-season coaching transfer Ivan Cleary has seen his side really rally since he's joined. The Roosters don't look at their strongest: with two second rowers in the centres and Michael Gordon returning from injury. Since Round 4 the Roosters have only won a game by more than 6 points on 4 occasions (vs the Knights twice, and Eels and Tigers one time each - and it was only the Parramatta game that was over with 20 minutes still on the clock). Unless the Tigers entirely roll over, the +12.5 looks pretty decent and they're even a shot at another narrow victory.

Cowboys aren't terrible either. It was arguably only fatigue due to losing two players early that saw them fall against the Panthers (who are travelling pretty alright, with 6 wins in a row). The bench looks skinny but they've their halfback returning and some very able replacements in the centres. They're up against the Sharks who have been very ordinary, with their only recent victories against sides out of the race for the eight. Their handling and discipline has been terrible, they look tired and as much as you think that they're a quality side that will figure out how to turn it around sometime soon, it's hard to be bullish about their chances in Townsville.

Dogs are hard to entertain. They're only a selection here on account of Manly's recent big defeats by the decent Dragons and Storm, and narrow games vs the Tigers (x2) and Panthers. Given the respective lineups, I can't see them being a threat here at all unless something miraculous happens.
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  #214  
Old 20th August 2017, 06:12 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 24 Review

Tips
Parramatta Eels ($1.27)
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.16)
Brisbane Broncos ($1.46)
Melbourne Storm ($1.35)
Sydney Roosters ($1.60)

North Queensland Cowboys ($1.38)
Canberra Raiders ($1.34)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.71)



Value Bets
Newcastle Knights @ $4.65 ($4.06 - so not value)
Wests Tigers @ $4.40 ($2.77)
Wests Tigers (+12.5) @ $1.91 ($1.38)
North Queensland Cowboys @ $2.37 ($1.38)
North Queensland Cowboys (+4) @ $1.91 ($1.24)

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $3.75 ($2.49)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (+10.5) @ $1.91 ($1.42)


In addition to the above, after final teams there was also the following bet that became value:
South Sydney Rabbitohs (-8.5) @ $1.91

I was right about the Tigers: they were only a lucky try from knocking off the Roosters and well within the bookmakers' line (it even had the final score estimated as 22.88 to 17.70 -> 22 to 18).

The Cowboys result was disappointing but you have to take off your ten gallon hat to them. A huge injury toll going into the match and it certainly didn't improve during it! Still, it was only when Michael Morgan went off for a HIA that the Sharks scored 12 points and jumped out enough to hold them.

I shouldn't be surprised, but I'm not as smart as my spreadsheet. The Dogs beat Manly! And it wasn't even close!
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  #215  
Old 23rd August 2017, 12:12 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 25

Tips
Brisbane Broncos ($1.49)
Canberra Raiders ($1.22)
Wests Tigers ($1.78)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($1.85)
Melbourne Storm ($1.08)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks ($1.70)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.65)
Penrith Panthers ($1.75)

The model has gone for all the favourites, except in the Titans-Bulldogs match. Which team will win? The one that just sacked their coach? Or the one that has said that all their players (except for 3) are for sale, to get under next year's salary cap?


Value Bets
Parramatta Eels @ $4.00 ($3.13 - so not value, needs $4.10)
Newcastle Knights @ $5.50 ($5.81 - so not value)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $2.30 ($1.85)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (+3.5) @ $1.91 ($1.58)
Melbourne Storm (-14) @ $1.91 ($1.65)

The Eels beat Brisbane when they played 4 weeks ago and the sides aren't terribly different now - with only around 3 new faces in each - so Parra wouldn't be a terrible bet using OddsBoost. So why the long odds? Because the Eels got beaten by the Knights, pretty much.

I think Titans are favourite due to the old 'coach was sacked, now the team will play better' rule. The model instead appears to follow the 'go against the team that has had 126 points scored against them the past 3 weeks' rule. The Bulldogs were pretty good last week and it's been a long while since the Titans put on a decent performance.

The Storm line looks challenging (and it's only just a Value bet).
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  #216  
Old 27th August 2017, 06:25 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 25 Review

Tips
Brisbane Broncos ($1.49)
Canberra Raiders ($1.22)
Wests Tigers ($1.78)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($1.85)
Melbourne Storm ($1.08)
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks ($1.70)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.65)
Penrith Panthers ($1.75)

Value Bets
Parramatta Eels @ $4.00 ($3.13 - so not value, needs $4.10)
Newcastle Knights @ $5.50 ($5.81 - so not value)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ $2.30 ($1.85)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (+3.5) @ $1.91 ($1.58)
Melbourne Storm (-14) @ $1.91 ($1.65)



Tips didn't go the best, but I think that was mostly due to a closely contested round of football. Value Bets have been going alright of late; I'll do a bit more of a review once the regular season is over.
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  #217  
Old 31st August 2017, 12:23 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 26

Last round! Hasn't the season just flown by...?

Tips
Brisbane Broncos ($1.40)
Parramatta Eels ($1.20)
Sydney Roosters ($1.21)
Penrith Panthers ($1.38)
Melbourne Storm ($1.27)
Newcastle Knights ($1.55)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.29)
Wests Tigers ($1.17)

I was a little surprised to see that Manly are the bookies' favourite in the Sea Eagles-Panthers match. Penrith won 7 in a row and were only pipped by 2 points last week (when the Dragons' Tariq Sims stripped the ball one-on-one and ran in for a fortuitous try). They also beat Manly by 8 in their previous meeting this season. Manly were lucky to get a 1-point victory over the woeful Warriors last weekend and the rounds preceding that saw them only put together one decent performance (36 - 18 over the Roosters), along with two 30-point drubbings and losses against the lightweight Bulldogs and Tigers. Surely the loss of the Panthers' Moylan (who has mostly been a passenger in the latter half of the season) and fullback Dylan Edwards has been over-stated. Tyrone May has out-performed the former and the latter is being replaced by a past New Zealand international.

Newcastle Knights (clearly!) over the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks was also a surprise pick! The Sharks have been pretty ordinary of late: Raiders, Broncos and Roosters have all beaten them, and they looked terrible in parts in wins against the Warriors and Cowboys (who were decimated by injury). It's Old Boys Day at the Knights homeground and they're celebrating their inaugural 1997 Grand Final win: the local side will be on a high. Though their last 2 performances weren't great, they were at least against highly-rated sides - and the 3 preceding matches were victories, including the Parramatta boilover. I heard Andrew Johns tip them on the Footy Show last week and I also reckon they're in with a strong shot.


Value Bets
Brisbane Broncos (-4) @ $1.91 ($1.73 - so not value, need $1.99)
Gold Coast Titans @ $8.00 ($6.10 - so not value, need $11.25)
Penrith Panthers @ $2.02 ($1.38)
Penrith Panthers (+1.5) @ $1.91 ($1.32)
Newcastle Knights @ $3.55 ($1.55)
Newcastle Knights (+10) @ $1.91 ($1.19)
Wests Tigers @ $1.57 ($1.17)
Wests Tigers (-4.5) @ $1.91 ($1.35)
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  #218  
Old 3rd September 2017, 09:16 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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NRL 2017 - Round 26 Review

Tips
Brisbane Broncos ($1.40)
Parramatta Eels ($1.20)
Sydney Roosters ($1.21)

Penrith Panthers ($1.38)
Melbourne Storm ($1.27)
Newcastle Knights ($1.55)
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.29)

Wests Tigers ($1.17)


Value Bets
Brisbane Broncos (-4) @ $1.91 ($1.73 - so not value, need $1.99)
Gold Coast Titans @ $8.00 ($6.10 - so not value, need $11.25)
Penrith Panthers @ $2.02 ($1.38)
Penrith Panthers (+1.5) @ $1.91 ($1.32)

Newcastle Knights @ $3.55 ($1.55)
Newcastle Knights (+10) @ $1.91 ($1.19)
Wests Tigers @ $1.57 ($1.17)
Wests Tigers (-4.5) @ $1.91 ($1.35)


With final teams, Gold Coast at the line (+22.5) would have been a successful value bet. The successful Wests Tigers H2H bet would have just missed as Value. (So I would have lost $1.57 to gain $1.91).

Panthers were rolled by a red-hot Manly; if the latter can reproduce that in the finals then they'll scare some teams, for sure.

The Knights-Sharks game was close and could have gone the underdogs' way with a few less errors.
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  #219  
Old 3rd September 2017, 11:02 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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2017 Season Review

Loser! ...though to be honest I'm more interested to see if there's any patterns that I can learn from than earn big money. Here is my rolling balance throughout the season:



There were 128 bets that I posted over the 26 rounds (on review I saw that one wasn't actually value, so there are 127 in the above graph). Many of these are both H2H and line bets for the same game and it wouldn't really make practical sense to bet both, but I included them all. A few things struck me about the graph:
  1. It doesn't consistently lose
  2. There are sections which consistently win
  3. There are sections which consistently lose

The balance line immediately drops down to -10 units, which is honestly to be expected. From a model point of view: there's not much data to base estimates on. In the earliest rounds you can only look to last season for an indication. From a practical point of view, a lot has changed since the previous season: personnel, tactics, fitness levels, etc. That it dips precipitously is unsurprising when teams are still working out their systems. It appears to become more reliable from about Round 6:



Though not every week wins there is certainly an upward trend of 8.9%. I decided that a 7.5% advantage constituted a value bet, so it's encouragingly similar to that.

There's another precipitous drop from Round 12-15, followed by a flat patch until Round 20. Round 12 is the first bye round. Round 19 is the last bye round. As I said repeatedly throughout the season, I don't handle changes within teams very well. So during byes, where representative players are missing, I would expect the model to do quite poorly. (It arguably takes another couple of weeks before getting into high gear as I'm using these affected games to calculate my ratings). Whether I can do a better job of it or whether the whole period is a lost cause, I'm unsure. Hopefully I'll do some work in that regard during the off-season (though it didn't work out that way last time!).

From Round 20 (first full round after the byes) through to Round 26 (the end of the season) it goes pretty well indeed:



13.9% is beyond expectation, but it's only really one good week that puts it well above that 7.5% mark. (For example, in that first group Round 9 had only two selections - both in the one game and both losing; if they're deleted then the trend for that period is a 14.6% increase).

Here's something interesting: the average value (per Monte Carlo Simulation) across all bets in the Round 6-11 period is 15.6%. The average value across all bets in the Round 20-26 period is 21.4%. That's a difference of 5.8%: quite similar to the difference in trending profit between the two periods. Coincidence?

In any case, in this small sample size at least, I'm predicting far greater value than I'm actually getting. It's hard to tell if it's a problem with the model or whether I just struck a bad week or two in each period.

As far as tipping goes, for the season I was at 59.9%. It doesn't sound terribly impressive but I wasn't alone. FootyForecaster - another computer tipster on the web - got 58.3%.

Restricting it to the periods above is only slightly better at 61.5%. Again, that doesn't sound great, but per earlier posts, NRL is somewhere between 31% and 85% luck (average of seasons 2005-14 was 49%).

Not sure how the bookies went this season (I didn't track it) but they ranged between being 59% and 67% correct with their favourites through seasons 2010 to 2015. So I'm thereabouts. There were certainly games where I thought the model had got it wrong. I guess that they can apply some human intelligence to their prices, as well as get some indication via the volume of money from the betting public.

Anyway, it was a bit of fun and hopefully I can improve upon it before Season 2018
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  #220  
Old 4th September 2017, 05:42 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Mate, 2017 was such a hard season to pick winners. I normally do fairly well with my NRL bets. Not this season though, I wonder how many others are in the same boat?

Mind you I don't put anywhere near as much effort into it as you, well done.
I look forward to next season, with luck we'll both do better
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