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  #21  
Old 19th April 2019, 11:11 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I want to make a couple of points in this post. As I don't think many people get what being a profitable punter entails.

The first point is that there is always things to tweak in punting and so many more angles to search. You should always have something to look at and work on unless you are a 100% strike rate punter (which none of us are).

The second point is that to be a profitable punter takes effort and a lot of work. Probably more than you are willing to admit top yourself.

This is my day so far on this public holiday :

I've been up since 5:00am working on my punting analysis and after about 4 hours into it I discovered a whole new way to look at the races for my punting. I have spent the next two hours analysing all of my data for my systems and have been able to remove a significant amount of the churn bets (lots of bets for little or no profit). I am still collating the figures but I have reduced my risk considerably and increased the profit moderately.

How many of you have spent the last 6 hours today looking at punting?

I expect to put in at least another 4-8 hours today working on it. How many of you are using your public holiday to put in 10-14 hours analysis?

That is what makes the difference between the moderately successful and the really successful in punting. Its dedication, its hard work and at times is frustrating when you can't seem to find those nuggets of gold. But if you put in the hours you can find amazing things even after years of looking at it.
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  #22  
Old 19th April 2019, 11:25 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Hi UselessBettor,

Thanks for sharing your ideas.

With your class ratings, using race prize money, how do you treat races where the horse runs well, say beaten less than 5 lengths, but the prize money is far in excess of races it normally runs in?

e.g. normally runs in races 100k to 121k but runs well in a 500k race or even 1500k race? How do you treat this scenario?

TTA


A good question. For me I use past statistics and use them with the odds. Its something which has caused me issues in the past so I have a set process for these types of horses in my code. So I'll summarise the code.

First I look if its tried to jump up previously and how it has performed. I'll use this information as a starting point. But lets assume it hasn't run in this prize money class before for this analysis.

Next I will have the database tell me how all horses which have been in similar jumps up in prize money have performed. This gives me a baseline for the jump.

Next I use the market as a guide in these cases as its likely a better judge then me. So I look at the odds. So lets say a horse which is normally running in 100K races and then steps up to 500K and is priced in the market at $10. That is a very different situation to a horse which is priced at $50.

While I do not use it often Head to Head information can be useful but its rarely recent enough to be too much use.

If I am still unsure on its chances then I would include it in my dutch selections. I would prefer to not lose on the race. That is my low risk personality though and suits my style of betting. I would happily take a smaller profit in order to include a horse I do not feel I understand completely.

There are lots of ways to look at it but this method I can code easily enough and it tends to perform well.
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  #23  
Old 21st April 2019, 10:00 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Here's a lottery question. Is your database able to tell you the jump time versus the advertised start time?



Would love to know which venues in the USA are pretty reliable with there start times, always seems such a s**t show, some starting 5 minutes after, some jumping before start time, does my head in.
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  #24  
Old 21st April 2019, 10:52 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Here's a lottery question. Is your database able to tell you the jump time versus the advertised start time?



Would love to know which venues in the USA are pretty reliable with there start times, always seems such a s**t show, some starting 5 minutes after, some jumping before start time, does my head in.



Thorns,

I feel your pain with this one. I could set something up to monitor it but I haven't done that so it can't give you the results.

I have thought about changing how I handle US races to be done based on % market rather than start time but I haven't so I do think I leave some money on the table.

I have heard its because 99% of betting is done at the track in the US so the track doesn't care about other providers such as betfair. the people at the track know when its going to start so effectively they do not care.

I hate sitting here with liability being held up by late US races.

Do you do much US betting ? I find its my second biggest market after Australia only because it has so many more races than the UK.
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  #25  
Old 21st April 2019, 12:03 PM
thorns thorns is offline
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I would do, but I just hate the inconsistencies with start times, its okay if you have the races shown on TV locally or can find a half decent stream. Its the only time of the day I cant really work the races how I like to. UK/IRE/SA/AUS/NZ/SING/UAE/FRA are all fair game, but USA is just a blackspot.
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