HI I am afraid I read the rules wrong.I was looking at the top jockey's for the meeting and also i was useing the whol list instead of the top three. You say i misunderstood the 70%rule and gave an explanation.I can't seem to find it so could you give it to me again.
PS I think your posts are great. leslie

Hi amateur,

Lately it is true, the selections have not done very well, but you can't expect to win every day unfortunately. Just when you think things are getting ugly and abandon it, up pops five or six good priced winners. My advice, however, is that you will hit bad patches, so papertrade first, or invest small and when you hit the winners (increase your bank) increase your bets slowly. Say 1% of bank.
The jockeys to consider as a guide would be Beadman, Munce, Brown in Sydney.
Oliver, Prebble in Melbourne.

Unfortunately Beadman is suspended soon for five meetings and Oliver is taking a break except for the Darwin Cup day.

So I would tread lightly.

The way I worded the 70% was wrong, rereading it I could see how it could easily have been misunderstood.

1.Taking Saddlecloths 1-2-3
2.Those qualifying jockeys
3.Last start winners only.

Now OVERALL based on each stat INDIVIDUALLY if you add up the percentages of winners it comes to 70% of races. However, that does not mean if you use all three selection criteria you will have a 70% strike rate.
It means of the selections you have made combining those factors you have three different statistics in your favour and should get a reasonable amount of winners.

Now these stats could be distorted a little.
For example..
Meetings where those jockeys were actually engaged. Races where all three saddlecloth numbers actually ran (scratchings).

I would expect about a 30% average strike rate but you will snare some better priced winners in big races Group/Listed etc.

I hope I haven't confused the issue further.
The stats do hold true based on past data.
Best of luck with it.
I'll keep an eye out on it myself.

Incidentally if say number three is scratched, don't go down to number 4 - it doesn't qualify. And I would avoid any non metro races. Even the top hoops seem not to do as well, say at Hawkesbury for example.