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  #1  
Old 17th June 2015, 09:52 PM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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Default Grexit betting -

http://www.williamhillplc.com/media...bets-on-grexit/

https://www.betfair.com.au/sports/p...ort/1.117087478
Just a sideline, I think it's tomorrow, not sure when for a "result".

Quote:
Morgan Stanley gives these probabilities of what will happen in the days and weeks ahead:

Greece eventually goes back to the bailout programme: 55% likelihood. In this scenario Greece gets no haircut on its debts (which the government wants), it gets its international funding but also has to implement continued austerity and economic reforms.
Greece has a “staycation”: 25% likelihood. This would mean Greece implements capital controls – strict rules that halt the outflows of money from banks – like Cyprus did during its 2013 crisis.
Greece leaves the eurozone: 20% likelihood. Without European assistance, the life support Greece’s banks are on is pulled away. It’s hard to say exactly what the risk of a Greek banking collapse is to the rest of Europe.


Greece eventually goes back to the bailout programme:
55% likelihood.

Greece has a “staycation”:
25% likelihood.

Greece leaves the eurozone:
20% likelihood.

Lot's of "formguide" and opinions around
Quote:
The odds of a Grexit have been shortening across the board. Paddy Power has it priced at 6/4, while William Hill has actually stopped taking bets on the subject because “no one is interested in backing Greece to stay”. Before it closed its markets, the odds had shortened from 5/1 to 3/1.



I think the "bluff" here is, they are demanding Greece lowers pensions and more pay cuts so they can get a payment. To those who demand this, the lenders, they just doing business and are not really that hungry, literally. They got $squillion$.

One the other hand, the Greeks are for real in the sense that to decrease pensions and reduce wages even more, ya gonna have a really ********ed off Greek,( plural) and perhaps "Democratic" Anarchy, this is a real possibility,( the man has gotta eat) long shot, but it can happen. Then it will have a flow on effect. Avoid at all costs.

So No, I don't think there will be a Grexit.
But I don't know what will be, this ain't happened before as far as I know.
If Keating once said, "the recession we had to have", perhaps this is one of those "had to have" things, in other words where does it financially lead to ? It's only money and numbers, the sky will not fall and the sun will rise the next day anyway.
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  #2  
Old 29th June 2015, 01:33 AM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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From a twitter in Guardian
UK 4/1 to do a "Grexit" , hmm
If this happens it be like dominoes falling, "DominExit"

Quote:
19:44

William Hill stops taking Grexit bets

William Hill, the UK bookmaker, has refused to accept any more bets on Greece leaving the eurozone, after a flood of wagers on an early Grexit.

Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe says:

‘The only option people want to back at the moment is that Grexit will happen this year and we can no longer hope to balance the market so we have decided to pull the plug’

Greece is also the 1/3 favourite to be the first country to leave the European Union, followed by the UK at 4/1, and Hungary at 12/1.
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  #3  
Old 8th July 2015, 12:08 AM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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Default Grexit- and on it goes

It's just numbers, sort of. People are suffering to, but...

Quote:
Interesting snippet in the report on Monday’s events by Greek newspaper Kathimerini:

According to sources in Brussels, 16 of the other 18 countries in the eurozone are in favor of letting Greece leave the eurozone and they will have to weigh up the cost of any agreement to keep Athens in the single currency.


My take on this, the concept of the one currency for all idea.

If, Australia and it's 7 states was once a currency for each state, it be a form of independence respectively.
If one state did well in trade, it's currency may do better than the other states in value.
When it needed to sell more production outside of it's state, in may lower the value of it's currency, or compete.

But Australia is not Europe.

In Europe, the value of the currency as Euro is the same for all member sovereign states.
If one state manufactured and sold quality cars, people buy them, but only one state does so, so that state reaps more money than the others who mainly produce high quality agriculture.

Let's say the agricultural state in Europe had a slump in sales due to international competition, another nation started to produce the same agricultural product, only cheaper, or cheaper to buy due to it's lower currency value.

What option has does the European agricultural state have to compete ?
It can't lower is currency value, while stocks of agriculture remain stored in abundance, except perhaps sell at a loss maybe or it past a use-by date.

Yet the cars are selling rather well in the mean time outside of Europe.

That I think is the, or one of the problems with the current structure of a one currency for all scenario.
One sovereign state can't trade out of it's tough times by lowering the value of the Euro currency for it's own solvency when times are tough.
It's the same value for all members states no matter where one is in the trade balance of things.

There is no flexibility between the European states to increase or decrease their own currency value to suit there current requirements.

Exit may be the only option out of this structural/mathematical catch 22/spanner in the works.

maybe, idk...,

Last edited by Puntz : 8th July 2015 at 12:13 AM.
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  #4  
Old 8th July 2015, 07:44 AM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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I don't profess to know anything at all about this stuff (or much else for that matter ) but why did they all go to the one currency in the first place? Was it the beginning of this one world government thingy?
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Last edited by The Ocho : 8th July 2015 at 07:47 AM.
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  #5  
Old 8th July 2015, 08:22 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
I don't profess to know anything at all about this stuff (or much else for that matter ) but why did they all go to the one currency in the first place? Was it the beginning of this one world government thingy?

TO
In a way yes, but prudent member nations like GB, Hungary the Czechs and many others would not want the Euro even if they were qualified for it fiscally.

It was a "courageous" experiment to quote Sir HA.
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  #6  
Old 8th July 2015, 08:29 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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My understanding is the 'euro' came about largely due to tourism given the proximity of all the countries over there. I could be wrong but you think of how many people travel over there, to forever be changing currencies as you do 20 countries in 30 days and those kind of trips it just wasn't practical.

However were now seeing the effects of what also makes having one current not practical as well.
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  #7  
Old 8th July 2015, 12:45 PM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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Quote:
I don't profess to know anything at all about this stuff (or much else for that matter ) b


Same here, what got my attention is I happened to stumble on the betting in BF and one thing led to another, the news captivated things for a while, so in a way, because there is a bet not to be missed, but even the bookies have pulled out, they must know something at least, surely.
So I researched as if it's "form study" < roll eyes >
Then the actual history, democracy at work right before our eyes, as if we been transported back in time over a week.
How on earth can a nation call a referendum within a week, get ballot boxes ready etc, and then count the votes in 8 hours.
That to was a bet, the Yes or the No, and that to was too close to call.

How or why about the politics, that's for another forum, I don't have time. But this was a global thing on money markets as an observer not player yet it affects what I pay to eat-living principle.
There are similarities with betting to prices, decisions and factors make a buy/sell scenario, the opposite way round in our betting, the price goes down when favored, in stock market it goes up on demand.
One rather large number that got my attention was, A well known nation
lost 3 trillion on their stock market, 3 TRILLION within one month...that is an awesome number in dollars to lose, just because of the recent past events.
And to add, some profit from another's loss. BF ?

And they still debating the issue, grexit bets are not yet over.
Another piece of "form study" to consider a grexit is favorable is;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank

What this means, a new kid on the block, (BRICS), monopoly by the current world bank may have it's days numbered !
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  #8  
Old 8th July 2015, 01:04 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Okay thanks guys.
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