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  #91  
Old 5th May 2022, 06:12 AM
jake jake is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grizzle
That's because it's not "their" sports system, they're using someone else's sports betting service.

..using the Kambi Group sportsbook
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  #92  
Old 5th May 2022, 09:03 AM
Unstable Unstable is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Not sure what to do with this one, look at TAB fixed opening prices and back every runner listed $2 or less, a couple other filters are barrier 6 or less and leader or midfield runner.

Lots of winners and placing but prices short, BF is best, i have been playing around with stopping at 3 units profit or 2 units loss.


Hi Shaun,

Good Question, the stats say, early races produce more wining fav then late races, if that's the case, stopping at "", unit profit would be the way to go. The most important decision to make is when to invest, last minute? The stats suggest, the market early will be around 135%. At jump, it could be as low as 110%. This indicates, investing early, will give you better value.

Now, your $2.20 fav early, could change, to be as low as $1.90.

So, in your system, betting $2.00 or less, you would have missed out on considerable value and long term, you will lose, even betting in those early races.

Time wise is so critical, in investing at the pointy end of the market, there is not a lot of margin and you need every edge possible.

You are correct, BF is better than Tab odds, around 16% better than tote on average, after commission around the 12% mark, now that's an edge not to overlook.

For interest sake I ran your System through my data base, results below.

Tab fixed price at jump time =<$2.00, BP<7 and Settling <6.

Code:
WIN PLACE Races Bet: 612 588 Races Won: 319 464 S.R./Race: 52.1% 78.9% Outlay($): 612.00 588.00 Return : 532.75 540.84 $ Profit : -79.25 -47.16 % P.O.T. : -12.9% -8.0% Top Win Return: $568.41 Top Win Profit: $-43.59 Top Win % P.O.T.: -7.1%
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  #93  
Old 17th July 2022, 11:38 AM
punts2 punts2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by humdinger
Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look

Continue to have lots of fun with this quick & simple approach! Thanks humdinger
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  #94  
Old 16th February 2023, 07:59 AM
grizzle grizzle is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by punts2
Continue to have lots of fun with this quick & simple approach! Thanks humdinger

Me too
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  #95  
Old 19th February 2024, 04:09 PM
Chenille Prince Chenille Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by humdinger
Not much of a speed map fan but might take another look. Thanks jake

Do find speed maps useful, I especially look at nags drawn on the speed with good recent form over slightly longer distances (say 100m - 200m longer) than today's race
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