Trying to somehow drag the odds towards my hip pocket .......

I think the topweight wins approx 18% of the time, but stand to be corrected. And it is my opinion (which probably amounts for little) that the handicapper has decided that the topweight is the class runner in the field. Class in any sport will prevail, why not horse racing?

You can shoot me down for this next statement but ********I just cannot see how a few extra kilograms can stop a 600 kilogram horse********. The bonus is that you can have almost any jockey you wish with the topweight (no wasting to make the weight). I'm sure the top jockeys superior balance and skills would override half a percent weight pull a couple of other runners may have over the topweight. Yes, half a percent! OK, so we have the class runner who has proven they like the track and distance.

What about the horses readiness to run a top race. If the trainer has put the horse on it's favourite track, at a distance it can still be considered to be able to win at (no use backing a potential Melbourne Cup horse first up over 1200 metres when it last won as a two year old over that distance), then one must consider it has a reasonable chance.

So we have

Topweight
Saturday in Melbourne or Sydney.
Get rid of 2 y/o races.
Add a filter of running within 21 days.
Must have won at track & distance.
Must handle conditions.

What's wrong with that logic?

nothing except its probably odd on!

Butternut,

I can offer you a little assistance here and perhaps some simplicity...

Look at:

1. Horse No. 1;
2. Must be rising in weight from last start;
3. Must be weighted on or less than 59kgs;
4. Field weight minimum on or greater than 53kgs;
5. Must have finished in the first five or within 3 lengths last start;
6. Market Price greater than $6.00.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Sounds simple enough, Luckyboy. Any restriction as to tracks; midweek or only Sat class?

Merriguy,

Ahhh, some missing ingredients...

Midweek and Saturday Metropolitan Class S/M/B/A (excluding Adelaide restricted races). Handicaps only. No WFA.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Ta, Luckyboy.

[quote]
On 2004-07-19 19:04, Butternut wrote:
I think the topweight wins approx 18% of the time, but stand to be corrected.
Hi Butternut!
Maybe I am a bit late and you already have the info regarding win percentage of top weight but I will find out just for myself and post it. I never paid much attention to this aspect but it may have some merit. As to the extra weight on a 600 + Kg horse, beleive me it does matter. As an ex soldier I could prove it to you, as a matter of fact the skinny beggars in our troop fared better then us big blokes when it came to lump big weights "for long distances" and that is the key "distance and weight".

lomaca, you have just backed up my theory without realising. You suggested that the big blokes carrying the extra (body) weight did not perform as well as the little blokes. You both had packs on your backs but the big blokes were carrying extra body fat, probably 5 to 10 kilos above your optimal fitness. If you carry that logic through to a horse then an extra couple of kilograms in the saddle bag, or a heavier jockey, doesn't have nearly the impact that the total mass of the horse has. Say the horse has another twenty kilos to lose to get to optimal fitness. And we are worried about two extra kilos shown in the form guide?