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  #1  
Old 7th June 2017, 12:03 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Default Rating of Ratings

Further to Speedy's thread in the other forum thought i'd just give something a test for today. Basically process is combine 5 open and freely available ratings into one singular rating. I've only done it for races that should have enough form etc for the ratings to be relevant. (Ratings priced to 100% Market)

GOLD COAST - 4
1 - 8 - EL CAMPEADOR - $4.64
2 - 1 - MR EPIC - $5.07
3 - 6 - BROTHERLY SECRET - $5.37
4 - 3 - CHARGE MISSILE - $9.91

GOLD COAST - 5
1 - 4 - SIR DONALD - $3.82
2 - 8 - PRONTEZZA - $4.9
3 - 5 - DESTIVA - $8.23
4 - 2 - SECRET BLEND - $8.93

GOLD COAST - 6
1 - 1 - CRIQUETTE - $2.32
2 - 2 - MORE PATASI - $4.55
3 - 8 - NILETTE - $9.02
4 - 7 - KAPSTAR - $10.11

GOLD COAST - 7
1 - 10 - BENFICA PRINCESS - $3.72
2 - 3 - BAROQUE GIRL - $4.09
3 - 4 - LOTHARIO - $6.83
4 - 1 - ROLLING ROMAN - $12.8

GOLD COAST - 8
1 - 7 - SHAMFRANCISCO - $3.83
2 - 13 - CRUISING SPEED - $7.18
3 - 6 - ANGEL DANCER - $8.38
4 - 2 - MARSCAY FORCE - $9.52

CANTERBURY - 3
1 - 3 - LA COURBETTE - $4.47
2 - 2 - THE GAVEL - $6.19
3 - 1 - BERETTA - $7.32
4 - 5 - HAY NOW - $7.74

CANTERBURY - 5
1 - 4 - THE REVEREND DEMON - $5.9
2 - 5 - SHIELD WALL - $6.17
3 - 2 - CALYPSO BAY - $6.33
4 - 3 - LEUCURA - $7.62

CANTERBURY - 6
1 - 1 - HOT HIT - $3.25
2 - 2 - SECRET TRAIL - $3.27
3 - 14 - VOLANTE - $5.14
4 - 7 - ZIN ZAN ELSIE - $14.72

CANTERBURY - 7
1 - 6 - LOVE'S A FANTASY - $3.87
2 - 3 - SHAHRAZAD - $5.36
3 - 10 - DIVERGENCE - $6.91
4 - 12 - TOKEN OF LOVE - $8.77

BALAKLAVA - 5
1 - 6 - FAIRY NYMPH - $2.44
2 - 3 - FIRST REWARD - $4.39
3 - 4 - HARLEM CHILD - $8.02
4 - 8 - OUR PROSPECT - $12.26

BALAKLAVA - 6
1 - 2 - SACRED DAYS - $4.66
2 - 11 - CASINO CLUB - $5.93
3 - 5 - MISS COOPER - $6.05
4 - 3 - COMPLETE CLASS - $6.07

BALAKLAVA - 7
1 - 7 - RECONNECT - $6.86
2 - 4 - FLIP DE GLOIRE - $8.78
3 - 5 - GET IN THE BOWL - $8.82
4 - 6 - NIGHT QUEEN - $9.29

BALAKLAVA - 8
1 - 8 - ROAN CHEVAL - $8.51
2 - 4 - JUST RESTING - $8.7
3 - 9 - WILLOCHRA - $9.63
4 - 14 - ABUNDANCE OF HEART - $9.8

SANDOWN - 3
1 - 7 - CHAMPAGNE READY - $3.99
2 - 10 - DANCE FOR ME - $4.32
3 - 5 - CONCUBINE - $6.23
4 - 8 - EOLANDE - $11.19

SANDOWN - 4
1 - 4 - KELLSTORM - $2.84
2 - 7 - SAYED - $4.56
3 - 8 - MONOGRAM - $6.57
4 - 2 - GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY - $12.8

SANDOWN - 5
1 - 5 - BLITHE BELLE - $5.37
2 - 1 - ST SWITHUNS - $5.53
3 - 2 - MISS BENEDETTA - $6.92
4 - 4 - INVICTUM DOMINA - $9.59

SANDOWN - 6
1 - 9 - SOHOOL - $6.06
2 - 15 - DON'TBABYLON - $6.2
3 - 1 - LAUCHETTI - $7.35
4 - 6 - CANNOT BE SERIOS - $8.49

SANDOWN - 8
1 - 3 - VANTAGGIO - $4.4
2 - 4 - DON'T WE LOVE IT - $4.94
3 - 8 - EXACTING - $7.42
4 - 9 - MISS CLOONEY - $8.62
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  #2  
Old 7th June 2017, 03:58 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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And Belmont, one race already been but no winner from it:

BELMONT - 3
1 - 1 - DANCE MASTER - $5.13
2 - 2 - CULVERIN - $5.84
3 - 6 - DUSTY STORM - $6.27
4 - 4 - DUST ME OFF - $7.12

BELMONT - 6
1 - 2 - FIRE DETONATOR - $3.47
2 - 1 - KING LOUIE - $4.79
3 - 4 - JUPITER RISING - $7.47
4 - 10 - STARBOUND - $10.3

BELMONT - 7
1 - 9 - HALLDORA - $5.66
2 - 11 - STORMY PLANET - $7.56
3 - 1 - LAURENSEN - $8.58
4 - 3 - JUENDIS - $8.84
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  #3  
Old 7th June 2017, 04:28 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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evajb,

generally combining ratings won't work. They are just more likely to find the favs.

Your better to take 5 ratings and then dutch the top five selections from each which will give you 6-9 selections.
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  #4  
Old 7th June 2017, 04:36 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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I'll post some results tomorrow, was profitable today backing the top 4 but obviously one day means nothing. Agree with what you said UB although was thinking maybe ignoring the top selection as it might be overbet and dutching the other 3 with these combined ratings could be a possible approach. I'll try get the selections up tomorrow as well and see how it goes.
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  #5  
Old 8th June 2017, 12:02 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Results for yesterday:

Win:
1) 10% SR -10.6u
2) 24% SR +17.7u
3) 14% SR +5.2u
4) 14% SR -4.2u

Total) 62% SR +8.1u

Place:
1) 48% SR -1.1u
2) 57% SR +5.6u
3) 24% SR -8.1u
4) 24% SR -7.6u

Total) 95% SR -11.2u

Today's Raters

TOWNSVILLE - 4
1 - 3 - BETTER FUTURE - $3.75
2 - 1 - GOLD CUFFLINKS - $6.08
3 - 2 - INTIMATE KINGDOM - $6.09
4 - 5 - ASSERTIVE LOVE - $6.51

TOWNSVILLE - 5
1 - 2 - CONCLUDER - $4.01
2 - 8 - SNAPPY LEGEND - $6.75
3 - 1 - I'LL TAKE THE JAG - $6.79
4 - 6 - BOMBER MISS - $9.65

TOWNSVILLE - 6
1 - 8 - ANZUS - $4.06
2 - 3 - MORE THAN A SONG - $5.64
3 - 4 - NATURAL DANCER - $6.8
4 - 5 - ROYAL PHYSICIAN - $7.58

TOWNSVILLE - 7
1 - 1 - SPACE TIME - $4.76
2 - 9 - LIKER - $7.42
3 - 11 - RENEGADE RUBY - $8.45
4 - 3 - AMAHERO - $8.99

PAKENHAM - 5
1 - 1 - SAYONARAMOSA - $3.9
2 - 2 - JUNIOR BURGER - $5.04
3 - 11 - IHEARTPOPPY - $5.88
4 - 6 - MUCCINO - $6.85

PAKENHAM - 6
1 - 1 - ARCHERY PEAK - $5.98
2 - 2 - BOGONG ROAD - $6.9
3 - 3 - CHARLTON - $8.44
4 - 4 - EUROMAN - $9.5

PAKENHAM - 7
1 - 2 - GLOBAL ROCKET - $4.42
2 - 3 - PHOENIX PARK - $4.62
3 - 4 - FUSE - $4.9
4 - 8 - CRISIS POINT - $9.99

PAKENHAM - 8
1 - 5 - OCTOBER TUTU - $5.29
2 - 2 - ZOLANI - $7
3 - 3 - CRAFTY DEVIL - $8.33
4 - 1 - BENAMBRA - $9.07

PAKENHAM - 9
1 - 6 - ABRIOLA - $4.3
2 - 7 - CONSPICUOUS MAID - $6.13
3 - 12 - NATIONAL VELVET - $10.16
4 - 1 - STREETSHAVENONAME - $10.23

GUNDAGAI - 2
1 - 5 - MISS FARLOO - $3.86
2 - 1 - OH WHAT A THIEF - $3.91
3 - 2 - COD ROCK - $6.02
4 - 4 - RED HOT TANGO - $10.04

GUNDAGAI - 3
1 - 1 - BIG SPENDER - $4.66
2 - 2 - ERINS ZAR - $5.57
3 - 3 - TARAAHSE - $6.91
4 - 5 - INCHCAPE ROCK - $9.46

GUNDAGAI - 5
1 - 2 - SHE ZAR - $4.35
2 - 3 - LAZYAXL - $4.68
3 - 6 - AUSSIE JAMES - $5.31
4 - 4 - MITCHELL ROAD - $6.88

GUNDAGAI - 6
1 - 1 - LEMMING - $4.39
2 - 6 - ANNIE PRU - $5.19
3 - 2 - AIN'T SHE A DANE - $6.23
4 - 3 - UNDER THE EAVES - $8.41

GUNDAGAI - 7
1 - 3 - HOODLESS - $3.39
2 - 2 - OLD MARIBO - $7.01
3 - 4 - HECTIC - $7.49
4 - 1 - BULALA - $9.65

PINJARRA - 4
1 - 1 - FAULTY - $3.03
2 - 2 - PENTASTAR - $5.45
3 - 4 - PREMIUM REWARD - $5.69
4 - 5 - KENTUCKY LASS - $8.59

PINJARRA - 6
1 - 1 - BORDER SCOT - $3.43
2 - 3 - FORBIDDEN PLANET - $4.41
3 - 11 - CATAPLEXIC - $5.47
4 - 6 - CHASING CHAOS - $9.72
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  #6  
Old 8th June 2017, 01:34 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Talking

I'll stick my neck out and predict that the 4th rated will be a loser. Happy to be wrong.
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  #7  
Old 8th June 2017, 01:56 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Haha I think your neck will be pretty safe Speedy I agree with you. I think the 2nd and 3rd raters will be possibly the sweet spot between not overbet and reasonable odds / chance of winning.
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  #8  
Old 8th June 2017, 05:03 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Haha I think your neck will be pretty safe Speedy I agree with you. I think the 2nd and 3rd raters will be possibly the sweet spot between not overbet and reasonable odds / chance of winning.

Me too. Goodonya JB
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  #9  
Old 9th June 2017, 06:30 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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DId you notice most of the racces you lose in are won by a horse coming back from a spell. THe ratings you use obviously count that as a negative and using multiple ratings with it as a negative is causing the selection to not be top 4.

You can use this multiple ways.
1. Include resumers in any bets
2. exlude races which have resumers.

I think doing either would increase your strike rate.
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  #10  
Old 9th June 2017, 09:35 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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UB I checked the stats of the races this morning after your post. I just looked at the race stats rather than the individual horses and found the following:

(Note this is obviously based on a very limited amount of races)

Overall:

Win:
1) 16% SR -11.1u
2) 24% SR +22.0u
3) 8% SR -10.8u
4) 16% SR -8.3u

Total) 65% SR -8.2u

Field sizes of 11 or more runners have performed better, particularly as SB and myself postulated, the 2nd and 3rd raters i.e.:
Backing top 4 in fields of 11+ = +14.657u
Backing 2nd and 3rd raters in fields of 11+ = +23.629u

Soft and Heavy tracks have performed better, again particularly when backing 2nd and 3rd raters:
GOOD TRACKS = -19.9u
SOFT+HEAVY (TOP 4) = +11.7u
SOFT+HEAVY (2nd&3rd) = +28.4u

For some reason race numbers 4 and 5 have performed quite a bit better across all top 4 raters.

1000m and 1400m have been the worst performing distances thus far.

Races with greater than 25001 in prizemoney have performed better, particularly the 2nd and 3rd raters:
Races below 25001 PM = -24.1u
Races above 25001 PM = +15.9u
Races above 25001PM (2nd&3rd) = +29.4u

I also looked at races depending on the number of first up runners and there was no real niche that performed best but ill keep an eye on that also as per your suggestion UB. I might even try today two sets of ratings, the ones i've been using so far and also another set where I give first up horses a 15% boost in rating and 2nd up horses a 7.5% boost and see if it make any difference.
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