Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 5th February 2020, 06:39 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default Fine Cotton

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 10th February 2020, 04:24 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default Predicting Horse Race Winners Using Advanced Statistical Methods

Don't let your head explode trying to understand this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gW0PO7g6pY
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 13th February 2020, 10:21 AM
Mark Mark is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,404
Smile

Shaun, lost me at 1.30 in when he put up the chart with all the calculations. That's when my head exploded.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 13th February 2020, 05:43 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,474
Default

Wow that is pretty full on. I'll watch it tonight.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 13th February 2020, 06:11 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Wow that is pretty full on. I'll watch it tonight.


As soon as i found the video i thought of you,lol
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 14th February 2020, 06:45 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,474
Default

It was interesting. I watched it a couple of times and I have to say his approach was pretty good. His problem was his knowledge of horse racing though. He took the domain, assumed he had enough knowledge, and tried to analyse as much data as he could which wasn't enough. He then tried to come up with conclusions based on insufficient data by using "Machine learning techniques" but that really doesn't work.

Actually I did like the bit about "not all candidates are the same in the gene pool. Some are stronger, more immune to disease". This made sense when you consider the odds are the strength of a horse and some negative factors are not as bad against some favorites are they are against long shots.

The best line came at the end of the video in answer to a question. the question was "Do you currently bet this?"
His answer was "No its illegal to bet on hong kong racing in the USA."

That was just an excuse. if it was that good at prediction he could have flown to Hong Kong and bet there and easily recovered his money. He could have sold the software to a syndicate, he could have moved to a more bet friendly country. He had no confidence in it because he didn't understand it. It was a black box to him on why it might work and also why it does not work. He can't fix it.

If he spends more time on it (which hopefully he has) then he could fine tune it and use it as an input to a betting system.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 14th February 2020, 08:00 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default

I guess that is the perfect example why the majority of punters keep trying to find the holy grail and try new things, part of it may be addiction but i feel that because they love the game so much they keep going, like i always say, "If you don't love the job your in, then it is just a job, not a career."
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 20th February 2020, 08:58 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default Winning Forex Trading Formula

Not racing related but yet i found interesting to watch, maybe someone involved in trading could give there thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-H...L&index=61&t=0s
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 05:34 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655