My wife currently has a strike rate of 100%, 1 out of 1 that is. The result was General Minolta (she likes photography) at 20/1!!

The selections this week are:

QR6 - Stormy Lodge
QR7 - Enthous

The selection criteria is too complex to go into here, but suffice to say, when you are on a good thing!

Placegetter

From an American racing website I found a guy intrigued by the phenomenon of beginners luck. He says whenever he takes a lady to the track she does famously. She bets on the "poor blind horse" (blinkers) or "the one with the sore leg" (bandanging), or, the ever-reliable, "the one with the cutest name" or the nicest colours. Never fails. She goes home way ahead. He loses. Every time.

The laws governing beginners luck:

Law One: Bet on anything. It will win.
Law Two: Law one will only work once.

Hermes.

Based on the ever-reliable "nicest colours" selection method my wife likes Outlaws and Domero in Race 6 at Rosehill today - good Quinella bet! Asia was her third pick so you can stick that in the Trifecta if you want :smile:

The only time I have ever taken my wife to the races was at a Rosehill autumn carnival meeting about 12 years ago.
She wanted to back Sydeston in the WFA race at 200/1 ( he hadn't really emerged at the time, only a 4YO ) - I wisely steered her in the direction of Horlicks which ran about 5th.
Sydeston ran 2nd to Better Loosen Up and paid $20 odd the place.
She told me she would never go to the races again after that and has been true to her word!!

I sympathize with you guys with wives etc.
Whilst I am not married, I did take my ex-girlfriend to Caulfield Cup Day in 1998.
I spent days pouring over every form of rating, expected prices etc and thought I had the day worked out pretty well with some good priced winners.

She never looked at the formguide and put $2.00 each way on Taufan's Melody...because she liked music!!!
She also backed Lawyer because she worked in a Lawfirm...needless to say 2 bets - 2 wins!

I went home with a string of second placings and broke up with her a week later.

Hmmm, wonder what she's doing this weekend?
:lol:

I remember the race, I DID look at the form guide and still came up with Taufan's Melody. It is a front running international in the mould of Give the Slip (last year's Melbourne cup runner up). I called my wife to tell her about it and SHE came down to collect! Wisest move I'd made in ages.

Placegetter

************ - she picked the winner and I didn't put anything on it! :roll:

I've known lots of people - mainly but not always women I must say - who have novelty modes of betting. Favourite number is a common one. Favourite colours. Any grey horse. Jockeys named Darren. Whatever.

Let's say there are maybe 10% of bets like that on a given day. Probably more. In some big races, probably more. But let's say 10%. Well, that throws the market around quite a lot. That's a lot of dumb money. (But then there's beginner's luck...)

I was thinking that a horses' name must be one of the more predictable novelty factors. How much novelty money goes onto a horse with a novelty name? Do horses with snazzy names attract more money in the markets than their form deserves? How much novelty money goes onto Where's Dad's Cash? for instance. My daughter's selection this weekend was The Big Ask. Why? Good name. How much money goes onto The Big Ask just on that basis? I suspect it is more than you'd think. (Great win from The Big Ask - beginner's luck for my daughter.)

To a large extent it is a chaos factor because you can't predict it at all. If someone bets on a horse because they are into photography and it is named Minolta, you can't predict that. Don't have any hard stats on how many first time betters are also photography enthusiasts. But if a horse was named Big Brother, you'd be certain to get a novelty vote, and it would be a factor significant enough to matter. When you're sizing up the market before a race, perhaps you should factor in the novelty vote.

You can probably formulate some rules about this.

1. Horses with question marks (Where's Dad's Cash?) get more novelty money than horses whose names answer questions (Here's the Cash) and much more money than horses whose names are too subtle for novelty betters (Cash Cache).

2. Horses with personal proper names in them such as Call Me Lilly will attract a novelty bet proportionate to the portion of the population named Lilly. Similiarly, horses with ethnic allusions in their names (Master Pom) will attract a novelty vote proportionate to that ethnic group's representation and general standing in the community.

3. Horses with ethnic allusions AND personal names (Dutch Harry) cop a double dose.

4. A horse with a currently unpopular name like Afghan Raider is likely to be undervalued because of the inverse effect to the novelty vote.

5. Horses with names that allude to popular children's books (Our Eeyore) score lots of snugly money.

6. Some names are seasonal Amorous will attract more money in springtime.

7. Horses with names like Two Time Tart attract novelty dollars proportionate to the divorce rate.

Hermes

Hermes - that's an interesting question but I think you have overestimated the value of novelty bets. They may make up 10% of the number of bets but most of them would only be a few dollars each - cant see too many people risking $100 on a horse just because the name is cute. Even if you had 1000 "novelty" bets of $5 each it would not mean a lot in a $100000 win pool. As you say the effect would be much greater in races like the Melbourne Cup - bet then a lot of serious punters avoid those races anyway.

Remember Aunty Mary? Often used to go around under her true odds because EVERYONE has an Aunt called Mary or knows someone called Mary who is an aunt.