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  #31  
Old 8th August 2017, 07:33 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beberrycareful
have always wondered if the strike-rate for top weights is lower on wet tracks as compared to dry?


well wonder no more :

Good Tracks: Loss of 2.2% and 14.98% Strike Rate (16515 selections)
Wet Tracks : Profit of 5.8% and 14.81% Strike Rate (7379 selections)

Used Aus tracks only as Wet is very different in different countries.

So there you go top weights in the wet actually produce a profit because like you most people percieve the wet track hurts them but in reality its only a 0.2% difference of 1 - 2 horses per 1000 top weights which lose compared to the dry tracks.

But hey keep it a secret ... don't want others knowing these important stats.

Betfair SP prices used for analysis.
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  #32  
Old 2nd September 2017, 04:54 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Temps Voleur looks like a qualifier
R3 Morphettville today
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  #33  
Old 16th September 2017, 05:05 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Jetoomy looks like a qualifier
R8 Belmont today
Same meeting,,Atlanta Blue,,equal topweight
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  #34  
Old 16th September 2017, 05:10 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Royal Symphony looks like a qualifier
R2 Flemington today
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  #35  
Old 16th September 2017, 05:13 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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I Am a Star looks like a qualifier
R6 Flemington today
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  #36  
Old 16th September 2017, 05:20 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Almandin looks like a qualifier
R8 Flemington today
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  #37  
Old 21st September 2017, 06:07 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiz
Almandin looks like a qualifier
R8 Flemington today

Winner,,Jetoomy (Perth) also won
And some others,,but weren't handicaps
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  #38  
Old 24th September 2017, 03:14 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Winner,,Cashed (Adelaide)
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  #39  
Old 28th November 2017, 05:06 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Bay Road,,winner Morphettville Sat,,looks like he qualified
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  #40  
Old 27th December 2017, 07:04 PM
reinz reinz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil
2. The horse must be top weight in a handicap. So eliminate weight for age races, classic races, set weight races and set weight with penalties races.

3. The horse must have won over the track and distance.

4. It must have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. at its last run within the last 28 days.


Showing a profit with a similar system but I don't bet those drawn middle to outside barriers on tracks better than dead
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