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  #5441  
Old 4th August 2019, 08:23 PM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
An awesome season has ended. There was the clash of Titans: Man City and Liverpool fighting it out for the Premiership. Liverpool had the most points for a non- Premiership winner ever. Then we have an all-England (Liverpool-Tottenham) Champions League final and an all-England Europa League final (Chelsea-Arsenal). No nation has ever done that.

We learned to stay away from any congested fixtures, when there ins’t a full week before and after a round. By doing that, value bets made a 25% profit. The 14 weeks of congested fixtures would have resulted in a 9% loss of what seemed to be value bets; but teams were not playing up to their skill-levels.

It’s be a fun year. All the best to my soccer friends in the year to come.

Ray Stefani


Hi Ray

Hope you had a great break and ready for this coming season. Will you be providing us with your great predictions again this season? Sure hope so
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  #5442  
Old 5th August 2019, 09:38 PM
Sands Sands is offline
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A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00
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  #5443  
Old 6th August 2019, 02:50 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL starting soon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Hi Ray

Hope you had a great break and ready for this coming season. Will you be providing us with your great predictions again this season? Sure hope so


Thanks for the kind words. I'll send my Round 1 picks in a day or two. I start with the info from the end of last seaosn, so it's always good to be cautious for the first few weeks whilst the computer tries to make sense of the new season and the promoted teams. It blows it's fuse trying to make sense of the congested fixtures, but that's another story.

Good luck and hi to all my friends on Ozmium.

Ray Stefani
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  #5444  
Old 7th August 2019, 03:02 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL Round 1

Hi to all my soccer friends.

The EPL season is about to start. I start with last year’s ratings for the returning teams. For the promoted teams, I use the averages for the relegated teams. It’s a good idea to bet cautiously at first while the ratings adjust for the new season.

If you are new to my predictions, you can read the explanation that follows the predictions. It’s especially important for your sanity, to read my caution about betting when there are congested fixtures. We have had several weeks with congested fixtures when it would have been profitable to bet on all the underdogs. The fact that such a crazy strategy would work is reason enough to stay away from those weeks

Good luck with our new season. Last year was amazing, with only EPL teams in the finals of the Champions League and Europa League.

Now, it’s nearly time to have a pint and watch the first match.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc EPL Round 1.doc (59.0 KB, 701 views)
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  #5445  
Old 8th August 2019, 07:46 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Posts: 21,349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiz
Liverpool finished runners-up with 97 points,,the highest total in English top-flight history for a second-placed team
Maybe next season!

Welcome back Ray
Got $4.35 for the reds early
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  #5446  
Old 9th August 2019, 08:10 AM
Sands Sands is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Good luck and hi to all my friends on Ozmium.

Ray Stefani

Cheers Ray
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  #5447  
Old 9th August 2019, 08:31 AM
Sands Sands is offline
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EPL 2019/20 Winner

Man City $1.53
Liverpool $4
Tottenham $21
Man United $41
Chelsea $41
Arsenal $51

Others $151 & over
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  #5448  
Old 12th August 2019, 05:41 PM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
They'll be using the video assistant referee for the first time next season Ray, that should add to the fun

VAR in full swing already
49 checks in the opening seven EPL games
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  #5449  
Old 13th August 2019, 10:37 AM
jake jake is offline
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Posts: 25,250
Red face

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00

..we've lost another player to overseas teams..shane lowry
..jason davidson & andy keogh already gone..matthew spiranovic future unsure
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  #5450  
Old 13th August 2019, 03:44 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Posts: 641
Default EPL Round 2

In Round 1, my favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren’t drawn. On the other hand, there was a big surprise when Watford lost 0-3 at home to Brighton. Man U had a big win at home over Chelsea 4-0. Man City opened strong away beating West Ham away, 5-0. I mention those matches because my system makes the biggest adjustments early in the season to catch up with team changes. As a result, there were some big up and down adjustments because of the matches I just mentioned. It’s a good idea to be cautious for next two or three weeks to be sure the adjustments were justified.

The Rugby WC is coming. You can check the World Rugby rankings to get an idea what is in store. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the matches in the last 5 Rugby 15s World Cups. Not bad. You can use the same approach they do to convert rating difference into the probability of winning and get fair odds that way. I'll give you the equation as we get closer. The home advantage is worth 3 rating points (for Japan).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc EPL Round 2.doc (59.5 KB, 626 views)
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