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  #1  
Old 28th May 2009, 05:21 PM
crash crash is offline
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Default OK, for those who like systems

I don't remember where I got this one from but it apparently works. I don't follow it because betting on systems to me is like watching paint dry. I'd rather lose handicapping [I do OK nowadays] that play a system.

"It is a place system for backing clear favorites for a place
I have twigged and adjusted the rules over time but they have always been based on favorites $2 clear in the win market.
TAB of course on which race is held
I look for clear favs and place odds value
I find it works better on Saturdays than other days
and marginally better on metrop to other.
Having said that, analysis shows that Saturday gold coast has both the best strike rate and best av div and of course best return.

Look at local TAB win odds 3 min before jump

If fav less than $2 short of next in win betting ignore race

If fav => $2 shorter than next in betting and paying at least $1.60 for place it is a bet.
$3 $1.40
$2 and 100 pointer TAB on line or latemail and paying at least $1.40
$2 and both 100 and late mail $1.20


this will give you about 75% strike rate at av div around $1.40 say POT around 5%

but I go all up until I have three times start bet
so if start bet is 4 units all up until 12 units+ then stop usually 2 3 or 4 legs depending on divs.

First bet is 2 units then when you lose increase opening bet for next sequence by 1 unit.
When successful reduce commencing bet for next sequence by 3 units to minimum of 2 units.
Suggest bank of 100 units has less than 1% chance of going broke.

Strike rate of selections is around 75%
Strike rate of sequences is around 40% at av return of around 2.8 of commencing bet for a POT around 12%
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  #2  
Old 29th May 2009, 01:13 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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ahh! I knew you were hiding something there Crashy boy!!! hahhhah! now you knew I was going to reply to THAT one didn't ya?


Mind you, very interesting! though "local tote" ooohhh!
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  #3  
Old 29th May 2009, 07:56 AM
crash crash is offline
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Smile

I thought you might bite on that one Party!
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  #4  
Old 29th May 2009, 09:52 AM
Brendon Brendon is offline
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I got one!!!

But you need an iron constitution and as a young man I had a wooden chess set box stuffed full of money from it (about 3 and a half grand),which the missus discovered and wasted it on stuff like school shoes and books for the kids, and food and stuff.

Here it goes. This is a variation on a simple paper poll selection that has been posted here:

Saturday metro class: Find the best 5 newspaper tipsters and put them together. Highlight each of their best bets. Pick the best bet selections that are not contradicted by the other 4. It doesn't matter if only one picks that horse, or if they they all do. That is your selections for the day.

Back them until you win a set amount. I used to go down and bet to win 250. It was boring and also stressful. I once bet about nearly 500 to win 250 at Moonee Valley on that system.

I lost big when Schillachi, Mahogany, and Naturalism all lost on the same Cox Plate day.

I won over all, but like I said you need an iron constitution, and it is soooo very boring.
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  #5  
Old 29th May 2009, 03:15 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Here's one a mate of mine used to use in a consortium.

They used to travel all over Victoria to the dog tracks, but there's too many problems and the prices are ridiculous.

He used to back the favourite at the dogs until a winner.

He made money for quite a time martingaling his bets, as almost every dog meet had a favourite win.

I once went with him and he was up to race seven and the favourite was $1.50 and went up with the lids.

I've never seen someone turn purple before.

It's doomed because of the prices, so we nutted out favourite but must be evens or better.

It wasn't for me, huge stakes to win a tiny percentage.

He was full of bravado when the favourite got up in the first or second races and he had a nice dinner and bottle of wine, but the look on his face that day, put me off it forever.

Today, he sells life insurance.
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  #6  
Old 29th May 2009, 06:44 PM
midas midas is offline
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Wink

A similar one

Article in Magazine a few years ago quoted two retired dog bookmakers who decided that with only 8 runners per race the winning box number would be duplicated at a meeting.
So after the first race they backed all winning boxes until one won again.
They were good at calculating a book and in those days you had competition to some extent between dog bookies.

Ah the good old days
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  #7  
Old 30th May 2009, 12:14 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Midas, you know there is some merit in that one as, as you say it has to be duplicated, the problem though (yes there is always a problem) is that you need to back 1 dog in race 2, 2 dogs (maybe), in race 3 ,. 4 dogs inrace 4 etc etc until yes 1 has. to duplicate if covering to win your bets would be up in the $100,000,s by race 8 and they would all be 10 to 1 on, but still you would have to back the winner!

An alternative is that my old man (a dogs man from way back) reckons that USUALLY, whatever trap wins twice will win 3 times (at least) so there is a basis of a system................and a maximum of 6 bets per meeting!
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  #8  
Old 30th May 2009, 12:26 AM
Dennis G Dennis G is offline
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Ahhh, the doggies. I used to go to the Gabba every Thursday night in the mid 70's (before the dreaded Bears/Lions took it over) and one night #7 won the first, #7 won the second, #7 won the third.... it continued until the odds on #7 didn't come close to reflecting the dog's true chances in each individual race.

Betting was wild and woolly to say the least....

Long story short, #7 won the first seven races and #7 in the eighth was so long odds on it was incredible - didn't win!!!

Never seen it before but it was enthralling.
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  #9  
Old 30th May 2009, 08:31 AM
crash crash is offline
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There was a race meeting out the back of Bourke. The 3rd race had only 5 starters and a bagman had one of them at 100/1. An old bloke came up to the bookies and put $100 on the 100/1 shot. When the bookie never wound the odds in, the old bloke tried to put another $100 on the horse.

The bookie trying to be kind, said to the old bloke, "listen mate, save your money as that horse has no hope at all and I know it better than anyone because I own it"! Unperturbed the old bloke persisted and had another $100 on the horse. The bookie asked "why, why"?. The old bloke quipped back, "I own the other 4 horses".
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  #10  
Old 30th May 2009, 09:56 AM
Dennis G Dennis G is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
There was a race meeting out the back of Bourke. The 3rd race had only 5 starters and a bagman had one of them at 100/1. An old bloke came up to the bookies and put $100 on the 100/1 shot. When the bookie never wound the odds in, the old bloke tried to put another $100 on the horse.

The bookie trying to be kind, said to the old bloke, "listen mate, save your money as that horse has no hope at all and I know it better than anyone because I own it"! Unperturbed the old bloke persisted and had another $100 on the horse. The bookie asked "why, why"?. The old bloke quipped back, "I own the other 4 horses".


Ahhh, ya gotta love it. Would give millions to have seen the bookies face.... :-O
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