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  #5291  
Old 19th September 2017, 06:47 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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This is the first I've seen of these predictions and they look impressive. though I'm not exactly sure how to "read"them.
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  #5292  
Old 20th September 2017, 03:14 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Answer to query

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
This is the first I've seen of these predictions and they look impressive. though I'm not exactly sure how to "read"them.


There is a page that follows my predictions that tells you how to read the predictions. As to using them, I give the fair decimal odds for a home win, draw and away win. If a bookmaker offers a higher payoff than I suggest is the fair (break-even) value, you could take that bet. I suggest staying away from decimal odds above 5, as you don't win that often (less than 20% of the time).

I also estimate goal difference and total goals. Goals scored are so variable, it's hard to make money on goals betting though. There are many options in soccer, like draw-no-bet but those are more sophisticated and can be evaluated using my odds.

Ray
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  #5293  
Old 20th September 2017, 03:25 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
There is a page that follows my predictions that tells you how to read the predictions. As to using them, I give the fair decimal odds for a home win, draw and away win. If a bookmaker offers a higher payoff than I suggest is the fair (break-even) value, you could take that bet. I suggest staying away from decimal odds above 5, as you don't win that often (less than 20% of the time).

I also estimate goal difference and total goals. Goals scored are so variable, it's hard to make money on goals betting though. There are many options in soccer, like draw-no-bet but those are more sophisticated and can be evaluated using my odds.

Ray


Hi Ray,

Just fount the page you mention, I should have scrolled down further.

Thanks, I appreciate you taking the time for the above explanation.

Mike.
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Last edited by Mike367 : 20th September 2017 at 03:30 PM. Reason: silly mistake
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  #5294  
Old 28th September 2017, 04:05 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL Week 7

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani
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  #5295  
Old 4th October 2017, 05:01 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL week 8

We had a good week 7, in that six of my seven favourites won matches that were not drawn.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

Good luck with week 8.

Ray Stefani
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  #5296  
Old 16th October 2017, 12:52 AM
DCFC DCFC is offline
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Thanks Ray 👍
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  #5297  
Old 17th October 2017, 09:39 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL Week 9

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc EPL week 9 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 468 views)
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  #5298  
Old 24th October 2017, 04:39 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL Week 10

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc EPL week 10 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 443 views)
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  #5299  
Old 31st October 2017, 09:56 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default EPL Week 11

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc EPL week 11 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 437 views)
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  #5300  
Old 3rd November 2017, 06:30 AM
humdinger humdinger is offline
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Thanks Ray. Nice work.
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