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  #1  
Old 19th May 2017, 10:24 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Mmmmm, the plot thickens (doesn't it always?) there's so many what ifs" like so number 1 in a maiden race has still the same statistic as the best horse , (as rated by the "expert" handicapper) that's pretty sobering yes?
I'm stating the bleeding obvious here but I have a point.
The only difference between maiden races and others is that in a maiden race no horse has won a race previously (not strictly true).

Disregard quality of horses for the exercise.

The point is that as long as they have records, you can handicap them same as other races.
This is the reason there is little diff. as far as favs. go.

Where you should avoid them is, when there is a number of unknown /to you/ first starters.

But you knew all this already!
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  #2  
Old 20th May 2017, 07:50 AM
Every Topic Every Topic is offline
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yes I agree with that.
I place bet short priced faves but dont back them if they have less than 3 runs under their belt or if there is more than one no form horse in the race.
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  #3  
Old 20th May 2017, 08:12 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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MDN Handicaps with no first starters

Nov 14 to yesterday
Races: 711
SR: 27.4%
POT at BT: -0.07
POT at BT/SP: 2.19%
Max outs: 19
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  #4  
Old 20th May 2017, 09:44 AM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.
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  #5  
Old 4th July 2017, 09:56 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.


This might help using TAB prices:
Favourite and under $3.00 Provincial and Country
Selections 5,166
Win Strike Rate 42.78%
Place Strike Rate 70.65%
Win Loss -8.65%
Place Loss -6.59%

Favourite and under $2.00 Provincial and Country
Selections 1,509
Win Strike Rate 53.61%
Place Strike Rate 79.72%
Win Loss -10.99%
Place Loss -4.79%
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  #6  
Old 4th July 2017, 11:29 AM
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I ran this for last year on the basis that it is provincial and country meets, the fave is under $3.00, its the horses first start and its a maiden race.

Best tote
Win SR 42% POT -5.2%
P SR 70.7% POT 2.87%

and its slightly worse for under $2.

I will add, however, that it is not uncommon in those kinds of races to have two close faves and that might be distorting these numbers.
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