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#1
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Quote:
The only difference between maiden races and others is that in a maiden race no horse has won a race previously (not strictly true). Disregard quality of horses for the exercise. The point is that as long as they have records, you can handicap them same as other races. This is the reason there is little diff. as far as favs. go. Where you should avoid them is, when there is a number of unknown /to you/ first starters. But you knew all this already! |
#2
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yes I agree with that.
I place bet short priced faves but dont back them if they have less than 3 runs under their belt or if there is more than one no form horse in the race. |
#3
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MDN Handicaps with no first starters
Nov 14 to yesterday Races: 711 SR: 27.4% POT at BT: -0.07 POT at BT/SP: 2.19% Max outs: 19 |
#4
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At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.
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#5
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This might help using TAB prices: Favourite and under $3.00 Provincial and Country Selections 5,166 Win Strike Rate 42.78% Place Strike Rate 70.65% Win Loss -8.65% Place Loss -6.59% Favourite and under $2.00 Provincial and Country Selections 1,509 Win Strike Rate 53.61% Place Strike Rate 79.72% Win Loss -10.99% Place Loss -4.79%
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#6
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I ran this for last year on the basis that it is provincial and country meets, the fave is under $3.00, its the horses first start and its a maiden race.
Best tote Win SR 42% POT -5.2% P SR 70.7% POT 2.87% and its slightly worse for under $2. I will add, however, that it is not uncommon in those kinds of races to have two close faves and that might be distorting these numbers. |
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