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  #1  
Old 2nd November 2014, 10:09 AM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Default Formula 1

Hey guys, new to this forum but not new to betting or staking plans.

Wondering if there is any interest in Formula 1 betting here?
Pre-season testing you can find some excellent odds given the slow response from Australian agencies in particular. I find they are slower to respond to breaking news than those based in Europe/UK (as you may well expect).

For instance, was able to get Hamilton @$8 and Rosberg @$18 in February to win the World Driver's Championship. WDC favourite Vettel was very short at ~$2 given he'd won 4 on the trot.

Three races to go, mathematically there are only 3 drivers who can win the WDC. Realistically, only one of the two Mercedes drivers will win, Hamilton and Rosberg. Hamilton leads by 17 points (25 points for a win).

From combinations of agencies they are priced at:
1.35 Hamilton
4.00 Rosberg

Giving a 1% arb.

With Rosberg on pole in Austin, and Hamilton suffering from brake issues which may carry into the race, Nico has a good chance of closing the gap.

If Nico wins, expect the 4.00 to come in significantly.
If Hamilton wins I wouldn't expect too much movement.


Love to hear your thoughts.
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  #2  
Old 2nd November 2014, 02:47 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Sorry double topic when I refreshed, could the mod please delete one of them.
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  #3  
Old 3rd November 2014, 06:43 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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After Lewis ' win in Austin, Ricciardo is now out of the WDC.
It's now a two horse battle between the Merc boys, Lewis and Nico, with Lewis leading by 24 points (1 race win is worth 25 points).

Two races to go, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. The latter is a double points race so the Championship is far but over with still 75 points to play for.

Odds for both Merc boys are as follows:
1.20 Hamilton
5.70 Rosberg
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  #4  
Old 6th November 2014, 07:52 AM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Depending where you 'shop', you can get:
1.20 Hamilton
6.20 Rosberg

The Brazilian Grand Prix is this weekend, with the current forecast for a storm across all three days of the event.

Brazil is usually a chaotic race at the best of times, so in the wet with the current crop of high-torque F1 cars, we should see quite a few upset results.

There may be some excellent value bets for qualifying and the race.

I will make a final prediction after watching practice but except to see the unlikely Toro Rosso pair of Kvyat and Vergne punch about their weight in qualifying.
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  #5  
Old 6th November 2014, 08:27 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Playlife
After Lewis ' win in Austin, Ricciardo is now out of the WDC.
It's now a two horse battle between the Merc boys, Lewis and Nico, with Lewis leading by 24 points (1 race win is worth 25 points).

Two races to go, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. The latter is a double points race so the Championship is far but over with still 75 points to play for.

Odds for both Merc boys are as follows:
1.20 Hamilton
5.70 Rosberg


Hi Playlife,

GOOD to see another sport come to life here mate. Also one that i follow! I am a bit confused however. If the championship is still very much up for grabs if i have read you correct, why has Rosberg drifted out to 6.20 as per your earlier post today. It looks like its almost a 'done deal' with Hamilton a very short odds on fav??

Cheers LG
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  #6  
Old 6th November 2014, 09:24 AM
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Well, if Hamilton has no mechanical problems, then he will almost certainly win. But that's a big if. You never know what can happen. He has been favourite pretty much all the way through. Even earlier in the year when Rosberg was leading, Hamilton was favourite.
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  #7  
Old 6th November 2014, 09:54 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Two things I am aware of here. Those two hate each other and when this happens the likelihood of one driver shunting another out of a race INCREASE. More so in the run home to the championship and irrespective of whether they are on the same 'team' or not, if there is such a concept in F1 these days?

If the odds on Rossberg continue to drift, might be a bit of value there I reckon. Nice thread Playlife and good spot Sportz!

Cheers LG
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  #8  
Old 6th November 2014, 11:21 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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The real question here is will the turbo blow up?
Hamilton is an extremely aggressive driver, they all are I guess, but even when he was driving the V8's he was aggressive.
Turbos place so much strain on these smaller engines and cooling is a big factor.
Rain is another factor, could lead to a couple of safety cars.
I'd take the value on Nico.
I actually think that $1.20 is under the odds for Hamilton to win the WDC.
He'll probably win, but there's no value there.

As for love lost, Hamilton doesn't have a good relationship with Nico, but last year both Alonso and Webber, did not have a good relationship with Vettel.
I remember Alonso would not talk to Vettel at all.

The reason I think $1.20 is too short, is because there are too many variables.
Another driver could win either race and all Nico has to do is beat Hamilton in the placings.

There are some big changes coming next year team wise, should be very interesting. And this year has been a learning curve for the other teams.
I know Ferrari have been working a lot behind the scenes to change the whole setup for next year.

Rumours are flying around about Alonso starting his own team backed by a big gun. Alonso has nether confirmed nor denied this. We know what this means in the political arena

Playlife, a big congratulations on securing those early odds, that was a gutsy move and looks like a huge overlay now!
$2.00 was way too short on Vettel considering the move from v8's to v6 turbos. Everything changes.
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Last edited by Chrome Prince : 6th November 2014 at 11:26 AM.
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  #9  
Old 7th November 2014, 08:23 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Thanks Lord Greystoke. Wasn't sure if anyone was keen on F1 but figured I'd post anyway on the off chance there were a few lurking about!

As Sportz said, Hamilton has effectively been the favourite ever seen it was clear that the Mercedes was miles ahead of the pack. With the pre-season testing clearly exposing Red Bull's massive engine issues with their Renault powerplant, I was very surprised they remained not only short but favourites still!

As Chrome Prince rightly pointed out, 1.20 is too short simply because of the number of things that can happen. All it takes is Lewis to DNF and they're effectively back on terms if Rosberg can win that race (with the best car, there's no reason he couldn't).

Further, the last race of the season is double points.
Worst case scenario for Hamilton:
*Brazil, Lewis wins and Rosberg DNFs. Lewis leads WDC by 49 points.
*Abu Dhabi, Rosberg wins and Lewis DNFs. Rosberg wins the WDC by 1 point!

Rain, reliability, plus numerous unknown factors (such as non-WDC contenders taking more liberties knowing that the Mercs will give way so as not to jeopardise DNF-ing) mean that despite the 24 point lead, Rosberg still has a decent chance.

Al Lewis has to do is finish 2nd to Nico in both races. But knowing Lewis, he won't do that at all, he'll try and win both.

Part of the reason for the 1.20 also is because Lewis has won 5 races on the trot. Realistically speaking the chances of him continuing the run become increasingly smaller surely (I know they're independent events but you know what I mean!).
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  #10  
Old 7th November 2014, 08:25 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Brazilian Grand Prix Forecast
Friday: Storm 31C
Saturday: Storm 25C
Sunday: Rain 21C

The track is largely unforgiving, there is the strong possibility of hitting something hard if you go off so with wet conditions for the entire weekend, drivers will have to ensure they keep on the black stuff.
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