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  #1  
Old 3rd January 2018, 01:49 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default BFSP for favs is a no go

I have been running a system that concentrates on favs and have been using BFSP and i can say that at least 75% of the time it is lower than backing the fav at the scheduled off time, sometimes it is 20% or more lower in price.
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  #2  
Old 3rd January 2018, 02:05 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I have been running a system that concentrates on favs and have been using BFSP and i can say that at least 75% of the time it is lower than backing the fav at the scheduled off time, sometimes it is 20% or more lower in price.


How many results ?
Over what time frame ?
What countries ?
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  #3  
Old 3rd January 2018, 02:16 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Just checked my database.

46% were lower then the price offered 10 secs before scheduled jump.
42% were higher then the price offered 10 secs before scheduled jump.
12% fell within the prices available 10 secs before the scheduled jump. So slightly higher then the back offer and slightly less then the lay offer.

Seems to be pretty random to me.

This was for AUS races only for the last 6 months.
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  #4  
Old 3rd January 2018, 02:19 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Yes, only talking Aus races, has only been a month of running this system and maybe i got a bad trot, maybe the best idea to split between the 2.
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  #5  
Old 4th January 2018, 05:09 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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20% lower means one could lay all faves at BFSP and come out ahead, however, that's not the case with commission.
Probably need a bigger sample size and run the same scenario over different price ranges for the favourite.
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  #6  
Old 9th January 2018, 02:00 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Shaun or UB would you know if the BF backing price is usually higher than the TAB final div, when the TAB price is over $5?

I have a system where my top 3 selections show good profit for win when bet over $5.

Thinking of automate it on BF.
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  #7  
Old 9th January 2018, 06:02 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog1
Shaun or UB would you know if the BF backing price is usually higher than the TAB final div, when the TAB price is over $5?

I have a system where my top 3 selections show good profit for win when bet over $5.

Thinking of automate it on BF.


Blackdog are you talking horses or greyhounds (I think I remember you posting greyhound selections). It will make a difference.

I'll get something for the horses for you.
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  #8  
Old 9th January 2018, 06:23 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog1
Shaun or UB would you know if the BF backing price is usually higher than the TAB final div, when the TAB price is over $5?

I have a system where my top 3 selections show good profit for win when bet over $5.

Thinking of automate it on BF.


As a very rough guide 30% of the time betfair will be lower after taking into account commission. This number really depends though as the closer the odds are to $5 the closer the betfair odds will be. Betfair is great when you can find those winners in the $20+ range as you will get double or higher returns on betfair.
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  #9  
Old 9th January 2018, 08:02 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
As a very rough guide 30% of the time betfair will be lower after taking into account commission. This number really depends though as the closer the odds are to $5 the closer the betfair odds will be. Betfair is great when you can find those winners in the $20+ range as you will get double or higher returns on betfair.
Thanks UB. I'll give it a go. there is a bit of leeway either way.
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