Clay Tournament that starts tonight, going to try a different strategy.

Not alot of books have odds up yet for the outright winner, Centrebet has Almahgro listed at $7, (just found Almagro @ $8.50 on bet365), this is who im taking to win, but will wait too see if I can get some more value at other books. But for the moment im going:

4 Units on Almagro to win @ $8.50 for a return of $3,400.

Im going to hedge this bet at certain times throughout the tournament and see if I can end with a profit. Now this is an extremely risky bet with Almagro having to play the in form Berdych in the first round.

You are right about that being extremely risky mate. After having a look at the draw it looks like he will have a fairly tough match up every round if the form holds true.

Personally I think Wawrinka is pretty good value on the outright market in Gstaad. He seems to have a good draw and the fact that he is playing on home turf where he performed very well last year makes it look a very tantalising proposition.

He is $15 at Bet365, so I am more than happy to have a little nudge at that.

Cheers,

Sparks

Good luck Sparkus, I think hell get past Berdych and might have the hedge against Acasusco and maybe Ferrer. Noone from the bottom half really worries me except Jarrko. Hopefully alot of upsets will help.

with a record like yours at the moment drew ill follow you. (mr 100%)

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LOve all sports.

Im taking Acasuso to beat Coria, both players have had injury concerns of late, but Acasuso's form on clay is lengths ahead of Corias. Alot of rumours about whether Coria has improved his woeful serving, this is what he had to say himself on his blog:

"I worked very hard on my serve during the break with my coach and unfortunately we couldn't find a solution. I cannot stop myself double faulting somehow. I'll continue my career in WTA circuit. If Dementieva can make it to top 10 why shouldn't i?

I really didnt want to hedge this early in the tournament, but parlay Berdych with Acasuso means I dont have to outlay many units to get a return, so Ive gone for Acasuso x Berdych @ $3.63.

Fading Bjorkman against Waske, old man Bjorkman will still be worn out from Wimbledon I hope and playing on Clay does his game no justice.


Pending plays:

Almagro WIN - 4 Units @ $8.50

Acasuso to beat Coria - 3 Units @ $1.67

Acasuso x Berdych - 2 Units @ $3.63

Waske to beat Bjorkman - 1.5 Units @ $1.83

onya drew got through round 1. took him with wawrinka(from this thread) and acasuso in a treble. dont normally do such silly things but we will have to wait and see i guess. $3.80 for the treble and saved on berdych. Oh well what the heck. Only need the other 2 to win and i got almagro going for gold. Could be a good tournement. Well your still at 100% mate.

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LOve all sports.

should have just gone your way drew. sparky tip let me down. oh well ill sit on almagro for the next round then re think my strategy.

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LOve all sports.

Sorry fellas!

I was shocked when I saw the score. I went to bed after the second set as it looked like Stan was cruising.

It's a pity he couldn't jag the final set TB as his quarter of the draw looks very weak now that Seppi and Mathieu lost last night.

Looks like we'll all have to settle for cheering Almagro home for Drew

Cheers,

Sparks

Was watching the updates for this sparks and I thought Stan had the match all but won.

Round 1:

Pending:

Almagro WIN



Waske vs. Bjorkman 1.5 Units @ 1.83 - Waske up 4-2 in the 3rd set and has two break boints on Bjorkmans current serve before rain set it. Bet looks good, but dont want to count my chickens.



Completed:

Acasuso def. Coria WIN +2.01

Acasuso x Berdych LOST -2.00


Week Total: +0.01


Well Almagro did it alot easier than I thought and dispatched Berdych in straight sets. Little disappointed I didnt have the courage to let Almagro go and not hedge the opening game, but better safe than sorry. Both straight bets look wins and Almagro through to the next round, with only the hedge bet losing is a good start to the week.