A mathematical certainity of getting a good value bet and making a long term profit.

This works and it works well.

Bet for a place any horse that is over $3 and the place is showing at least 60% of the win value .

For example The horse is showing $4 for the win and you can get $2.50.
$2.5/$4 = 62.5%

Bets :1107 (Over 16 months)
Return : 1309
Placings : 677

This is something worth automating and just leaving to run against betfair where the odds are fixed. It won't work against the TAB as the prices can change after the race starts and placing prices tend to tumble if a large bet is placed on them.

If you could clear $100 a bet you would easily be making $1200 a month which is nice pocket money ... Can be used on any race anywhere in the world as well so you could be making at least 3 times this amount a month ( roughly $43K a year )

I say good luck to anyone who wants to do it as If you automate it and it gets a bug at $100 a bet you would not be too happy if you didn't notice it for a few hours ....

I used to do this manually and made a killing with it but it required me to sit in front of the computer which is not something I can do all the time.

Good Luck

wesmip1

Sorry to break this to you, but though your idea has merit it has been well and truly explored and documented since at least the 80s.

And intrepid robots are undoubtedly using the techniques on Betfair around the clock.

Anyone interested in learning more should search both here and google for the keywords:

Harville Ziemba

Yes jfc your talking of the old "Dr Z system" I think. The basis of this system started with research on US tracks in the 70's from memory. Some modification of their rules may still work but as you say the cat is well and truely out of the bag.

Pixie

I know its been around for ages ... but as Chrome Prince said .. there are a lot of mugs and its not too hard to get it... Your not going to get it every race but you are going to get it enough to make a profit.

Just to proive this can be done :

Today :

Eagle Farm Race 2: Number 9
You could have got the place for $1.90.

This isn't quite 60% but you got the place ...

and another won was Gosford Race 6 - Number 8
I got 2.80.

Good Luck.

It doesn't matter how old the method is, or even how bad it went in the past, if you can now secure the right odds, then everything is up for review.

Even though the cat might be out of the bag, there are punters that don't know a cat from a rat

For example, the old maxim that you can't make a profit from backing every favourite, just went out the door. I'm not making a profit on every race, but I'm certainly making a profit backing every favourite (even though I'm laying them as well).

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

It's a fair bet that few bothered to conduct this exercise here, as a search for Harville would have easily unearthed some useful information.

Particularly this excellent free Place calculator:

http://us.geocities.com/possum_31415/place.htm

Anyone wishing to learn some Betfair skills might like to try Place Betting using this.

It should provide significantly more action than Wesmip's simple formula.

I note that Betfair finally allows you to resize your windows a bit so it might even be possible to view Win, place and Calculator windows concurrently on the 1 screen.

From the same link above:

"Here's an endorsement of the calculator from Jd777 on the Betfair forum:

there's nothing wrong with the calculations - its just that they are too simple / one-dimensional for practical usage".

As is most of what has been said on this thread maybe [for starters, there is no such thing as automated betting software as has been suggested here that could be used to detect correct conditions and place bets for ANY type of betting system]?

The only system[s] that do work mentioned here have not been explained [Mark's method and maybe something Chrome was alluding too] and for probably good reason.

I can give more insight to what I'm doing, besides revealing exactly step by step.

It's extremely basic and extremely easy, once you have the tools and have done the proper research prior to diving in.

You need an accurate set of ratings or prices that are proven to be accurate and consistent.

You need to know exactly and accurately what advantage or disadvantage you have.

There is also the need to know the bigger the over you get, the more you put on, the more profit you make. This is basic stuff, but there are a lot of ratings that are not that accurate,and so when you see an overlay, they don't necessarily provide profit, because something unmeasurable or unpredictable has been left out!

Just a note, I do not use commercial ratings myself at all, there are other ways to determine the correct market price.

Finally, you have to set your lay and bet prices on Betfair and let them hang, you'll go bananas trying to chase prices manually.

There's a bit more to it, but it gives you an indication, and although it's basic stuff, they key is doing the research prior, so you are confident in the end result.

The reason this is so much better than betting systems etc, is that I can bet in every race, some races no risk (a la Mark) and whether my bets win a whole lot of races or lose a whole lot of races, I win money.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Chrome

Can you always green up? Or are there times when you can't fully cover your position?

Pixie