Just recently I have been interested in some BF laying strategies.

I am using GRUSS as a bot integrated with excel and it has some smarts which allow me to put in price cut offs and market filters etc. and most importantly automatically load up and split the bets over several individual bets at different prices.

In addition I have a selection method to produce horses which would be good to lay bet.
Across Australia, UK and South Africa there is about 120,000 selections per year so it’s quite an attractive concept because the individual risk per race or per bet is reasonably low.
Mind you some do get up at 100/1 which can be painful.

That aside the LOT is around 40% and the SR is about 4% and I have 4 years of an untouched ( i.e. not back fitted) pool of selections . The monthly range is 35% to 45% LOT so it is quite consistent. The LOT is calculated using tatts bet prices.

You would think “how good is this… can’t lose ‘’ $10 per selection, thus 1.2M in annual turnover and allow 10% LOT remaining and bingo 120k tax free etc. etc.
All good…on paper

However reality is different.

The BF lay prices are so much higher than the TAB prices it is incredible.
I always knew they were better but not by as much as i am seeing.

A selection will win at 10 on TAB and will pay 15+ on BF.
Even worse at about $20- sometimes 35+ on BF

So far after a couple of months I reckon my profit is about 2% on turnover.

This is where the” funny thing” comes in.

I reckon if you can come up with a selection method that has the following characteristics you are on a guaranteed winner AS A PUNTER – NOT A LAYER.
1. SR <5%
2. LOT <30%
3. Using prices for 1 TAB only

That means your average winner is about -14-1
Even better if you can get that average up to about 18+.
Reason is because the BF prices ARE SO MUCH BETTER FOR OUTSIDERS that as a punter on these “penny dreadfuls” you could clean up. If your average up above is 14 and you get 5 winners per 100 you return $70. If BF can lift you to an average of 25 you get 125 less comms.