Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 6th April 2018, 06:52 PM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 128
Default I'm taking a break - This is doing my head in!

I've spent thousands of hours researching a way to extract value. I'm a systems punter. If it hasn't stood up for a long period of time I'm not interested. I do things that most punters wouldn't consider and that includes a couple of "longshot" systems which require a lot of inner strength waiting for "that one" to come up.

I have ten systems at the moment, all with similar filters looking at similar types of races, similar number of starts etc, but all with at least one element of "form" that turns the average punter off, the bookies use it to their advantage, and that's my edge.

I can spend a couple of hours doing the form for no bets! In 2015 I'd hate to think how many hours I spent on a system that barely returned a profit. My most outrageous system has won the past 18 years, it's a system that doesn't have too many selections, certainly none under $10.00 and you can go months and months without a winner, then bang! I've been able to be quite disciplined and just keep backing them but recently I've used my knowledge (hahahaha) and abstained from backing some system horses. That's not what I'm about at all, if I punted only using my own judgement I'd lose all my discipline and all my money for sure. I'm not prepared to do that after spending so much time developing systems that most punters would just laugh at.

My one system that couldn't possibly fall over as it was market based, didn't actually fall over but the amount of hours I spent and the return I received put me on probs $1.00 an hour, I dunno, maybe less. This shouldn't have happened. It's done my head in and the system I've got that keeps on giving took until 31 December a couple of years back to get into profit.

It looks good on paper, but it will eventually wear you down.

I'm having a break for as long as it takes and coming back doing exactly the same thing. I was told that ALL my systems could fall over together! Ridiculous, how could that happen?!?! Well it actually could.....there aren't any certainties as to when a horse is going to win and you have to have faith that what you've set up is going to repeat.

I don't know what elements of my systems I'm going to concentrate on but they'll include those form elements that turn punters off. I'm good at that but I've lost my mojo.

I'll keep posting though.

Last edited by Snert : 6th April 2018 at 06:54 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 6th April 2018, 09:23 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,395
Default

Snert,

That was a sad post to read. It felt like an obituary.

In my opinion you were missing 1 key ingredient. That is the winning part. Its fine to have a few long shot systems in your stable that have small bets on them. But your main systems which bet day in and day out should be winning most days. Otherwise as per your post the psychological aspect of losing wears you down.

Go back and look for systems which win 9 out of 10 days. This will mean dutching, placing, laying or favourite based systems. Then learn to eliminate the losing days.

Easier said then done
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 6th April 2018, 10:16 PM
Vortech Vortech is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 979
Default

Snert - We have had our differences in the past but I can hear your pain. I believe UB is right. There are many different angles in making profit from the races which you might have to explore.

Making profit in most cases takes discipline. You don't get the rush like a decent quad payout or a big trifecta.

With your fleet of systems maybe take an approach of removing filters that will generate more profit. This might overall create a smaller strike rate but overall more profit and more action.

Maybe try your luck with lay betting.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 7th April 2018, 05:40 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 7,202
Wink

Snert, I too am a "systems man" mainly with Win bets. My only suggestion is to bet exclusively with Betfair for their superior payments as I've had several winners that have doubled the TAB dividend, and even yesterday one that trebled the TAB. I no longer have a bookie nor a TAB account. Of course, you may bet exotics so I can't offer anything worthwhile but I must say I am impressed with Betfair which can be the difference between crying and smiling.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 7th April 2018, 09:06 AM
theoldguy theoldguy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 6
Smile

hi like you YEARS AGO i had a batch of systems that i gathered from 3 racing mags..[no longer with us]..picked out what i thought were the best 12...as a "side dish" to my betting...used them for 12 months..
at the end there was a small profit...but again the work-load [was only sat..melb..and syd] was so much time ....at the end it was also "doing my head in"...
some might say .."you showed a profit why would you stop"..
answer--was a SMALL profit but the time-factor made it a chore rather then enjoyment...good punting and good health today to all...
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 7th April 2018, 08:18 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,395
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by theoldguy
some might say .."you showed a profit why would you stop"..
answer--was a SMALL profit but the time-factor made it a chore rather then enjoyment...good punting and good health today to all...


And is why system bettors better be able to program or you are at a major disadvantage.

If you can't program you are in my opinion best to stick to handicapping a race and getting a much better feel for the race and horses then a systems bettor could ever has. A good handicapper will always win in the short term over a systems bettor on a particular set of races. A systems better will always win if the handicapper tries to handicap every race though.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 8th April 2018, 09:50 AM
Vortech Vortech is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 979
Default

[QUOTE=UselessBettor]And is why system bettors better be able to program or you are at a major disadvantage.

If you can't program you are in my opinion best to stick to handicapping a race and getting a much better feel for the race and horses then a systems bettor could ever has. A good handicapper will always win in the short term over a systems bettor on a particular set of races. A systems better will always win if the handicapper tries to handicap every race though.[/QUOTE

UB -good points. For those that don't have the time its better to get your hands some ratings from an external source. The free ones are often very vague but even if you have to pay a little amount its important to measure how much time you spend on analysing a race for the returns.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 8th April 2018, 04:25 PM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 128
Default

After a while.....Once you put your money down, it's then that you realize you're betting on say a 10 / 1 shot to be successful so that your system retains it's 40% POT (which is the same as backing a winner @ $1.40 in a single bet).

Then you start wondering if history will repeat when the odds are so stacked against you on this particular race.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 8th April 2018, 04:52 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,395
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
After a while.....Once you put your money down, it's then that you realize you're betting on say a 10 / 1 shot to be successful so that your system retains it's 40% POT (which is the same as backing a winner @ $1.40 in a single bet).

Then you start wondering if history will repeat when the odds are so stacked against you on this particular race.


Add to that the interruptions which can occur and you miss to put the bet on and it goes onto win without you backing it. That can hurt the profit of a long shot bettor dramatically.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 8th April 2018, 09:07 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 100
Default

Long shot systems suck. So hard to feel successful when you have such a long run of outs. I personally stick to the pointy end for backing and laying. Even a bad day means some wins which keeps me going.

Snert, in my opinion, you should consider laying the favourite in the races where your selecting the long shot. Obviously, your system must show that the favourite is suspect. The profits will be smaller but more consistant and if you can get a 80% strike rate or better you will profit long term which beats a losing long shot system everyday of the week.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:43 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655