Hi Max,
One very strong filter to consider is...

.Only Target races where the whole field has had 2+ career starts .
Otherwise, delete the race.

The reason for this is to be able to compare apples with apples,
instead of apples with apple surprise.
Just look at the outsiders that get up in those scattered form races, so they are usually best left alone.

There is nothing wrong with Maiden races , so long as they meet above criteria.

__________________
Cheers.

Bad day yesterday.

7 races selected for a total outlay of 80 units. Only MR3 returned for me. Returned $11.70 for 3 units gave me 46.80 units. Just over 50% return for the day. Not nice.

So far though, still in front:

Total Outlay 379.00 units
Total Return 644.30 units
Profit 265.30 units
Profit 170%

HI MAX.I have been following your thread and getting a few winners.One question you or any member might answer is which runner is selected when multi runners for the same fave occur.ie 3rd fav 6:1 3 runners listed at this price same race 5th fav 10:1 4 runners.Do we miss this race or filter some runners out .
Interested to see the reply Many thanks The robot.

Sorry if I am putting this up after the race. I have only just been able to get some time to check the races today and throw the qualfying 1 up here:

2011 05 09 MON VRECHUCA5, numbers 5 for 5 units, 4 for 4 units, and 9 for 3 units

=> Bagwan. Thanks. I think that has naturally been happening anyhow but I will keep that in the filters.

=> Robot. It would be interesting see what fintering out any races with multiple selections at any odds does to the results. I will look into that. To answer your question I check the recent race positions, so if 3 horses at 6.0 are listed with recent runs of s125, 3726, 0374, then the 3rd would be 1st (0374), then the 1st (s125) and then the middle one (3726). If the recent races are the same, then see if the formguide has an arrow for up in class or down in class and choose the down in class. If that is the same, then choose lightest weight. I wont go any further as I have never had any multiples by this stay escpecially when you weed out races that are Maidens or with horses with 0 career starts.

I just checked for multiples in the 3rd, 4th or 5th fav selected races. Out of 6 races selected to date that had multiples, here are the results:

No races had the 3rd and any previous on same odds.

3rd and 4th fav on same odds, 0 wins and 2 losses for a loss of 22.00 units

4th and 5th fav on same odds, 2 wins and 2 losses for a profit of 90.00 units

I think the multiples pay for themselves well but is waaaaay too early to tell. I wish I could work out how to use a database and backtrack it all.

However. I also looked at when the 5th fav was at the same odds as the 6th or 7th or thereafter. 6 races return a win of 46 units from an outlay of around 70 units, so there could be something in dropping races where my last horse selection is on the same odds line as the 6th fav. I will keep track of that one.

Just took a look at the 5th fav and whether or not it was the same odds as any following favs. 5 races matched with only 1 win. The win did not cover the cost of those 5 races, so dropping them from my selections to date increased my profit from 56% to 67% to date. My S/R dropped slightly from 33.33% to 30.56% but my average win increased from 53.69 to 54.32 units. Interesting.

I will keep an eye on including and not including those races as my sample data increases in size and duration.

[QUOTE=Robot]MAX
Maybe i did not explain myself well. What I want to know is if at the 3rd line of prices we have 4 runners, which one gets the nod then to find on the 5th line 3 runners are selected.
I am using per post odds from the paper a Fairfax publication here in NSW after scratchings which could give a false market. This is done of a morning as I make my bets then and get the results the next day
Thanks for your interest and looking forward to your comments.Like you new to the forum but what an exciting place if at all interested in the sport of KINGS Regards ROBOT.
PS ARE those runners not selected disregarded and then move to the next price line.

=> Robot. You did explain yourself. Maybe my explanation was not as easy to understand as it is to me, being in the know. I will try and post up a sample race.

In the meantime, WE HAD A WIN! Echuca race 5 returned 4.90 on the 4th favourite. Lower than what we wanted but enough to make a profit for the day using the unit stakes I prescribed. A 7.60 unit profit for the day.

So result to date are now:

Return	663.90
Outlay	414.00
Profit	$ 249.90
Profit %	160.36%

And if I drop races where the 5th fav has the same odds as those following:

Return	617.10
Outlay	357.00
Profit	$ 260.10
Profit %	172.86%