Here's an example race for selection:

Sat May 7 at SR Canterbury
Race 3 De Bertoli Wines Hcp 1100m 3yo & up Benchmark 85

1. 04850 Mount Verde 59.5k 21.00
2. 70871 Empire Place 57k 13.00
3. s5549 My Vegas 57k 13.00
4. s070s Martin Place 56.5k 35.00
5. 02471 Fitness Fanatic 56k 5.00
6. 1s211 Rain affair 56k 1.42
7. 32107 Mighty Obvious 54k 35.00
8. 33012 Ravna Gora SCRATCHED
9. 30s00 Danza Doll 53k 23.00

So I rank the top 6 using the odds on the right.
1st Fav would be #6 because the odds are 1.42
2nd Fav is #5 because he is 5.00
3rd Fav is #2 because 13.00 is the next odds and also #2 won his last start.
4th Fav is #3 because he is also 13.00 but with worse last start result than #2
5th Fav is #1 at 21.00
6th Fav is #9 at 23.00

To bet on the race, the 3rd Fav needs to be equal to or greater than 6.00, the 4th >= 8.00 and 5th >= 10.00. This race qualifies and so my selections would be #2, #3 and #1. They then go into my staking plan with weighs them based on their odds to make sure that whichever horse wins, a similar return on investment is achieved with an outlay of around 10-12 units per race. Sometimes the return is higher, sometimes lower than expected. In this case they were staked 4, 4 and 3 in that order, for an outlay of 11 units.

In this case the 1st Fav won. No problem. If the 3rd Fav had won at 13.00 then I would have won 52 units for an outlay of 11.

The selections for today:

*2011 05 10 TUE VRMORNINGTON4, numbers 3 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 1 for 4 units
*2011 05 10 TUE CRCASINO5, numbers 8 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
2011 05 10 TUE NRGOULBURN5, numbers 2 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units

The * selections are the B option which is to drop any races where the 5th fav is the same odds as the 6th or later favourites. This reduction is showing to be better off but is still in need of confirmation.

MAX

Thanks for that quick reply. A little late today the wife's sport day so a few extra chores.Have started to get todays selection from my paper and see how they confirm with yours .Many thanks again Regards ROBOT

Mixed emotions today.

2 of the races returned good values. Unfortunately they both are the ones I highlighted as having the 5th fav at the same odds as the 6th fav. Damn it! always the way.

So if you bet all 3 races you would have outlayed 34 units and won back 82.70 units for a ROI of 243% for the day.

If you dropped the "*" races you would have outlayed 11 units and got 3 back for a ROI of 27%.

There's always tomorrow.

I also went back and completed some race days that I had the paper for but did not run through my system. Using all races that qualify I am now on 140% ROI and if I drop races with 5th fav same odds as 6th fav the ROI jumps to 190%.

I also a few other things out. Running a 1 unit bet on 5th fav only if the races qualify as per my normal selection process returns a ROI of 280%, but wins are few are far between. Running a 2% bank grows the bank to 314% increase. May be something worth looking into I think.

I am also looking into what to do with races that do not qualify under my system and what I can do with those horses that do win in my selected races that are not my horses selected. A mouthful I know but the more I look into the data, the more questions I get. Good fun!

Hi Max,

You might want to consider using POT (Profit On Turnover) instead of ROI (Return On Investment) to describe your results as it is more commonly used in horse racing. I say this as in your above examples you refer to getting back 3 units on an 11 unit outlay and calling it a 27% ROI which would indicate a profit when it is actually a loss (-8 units).

It is much the same calculation but you divide the actual profit (or loss) by the outlay and not the total return.

Keep up the good work.

Cheers,

Matt.

MAX
HI After receiving your selections for today I than did mine as I indicated.I came up with similar answers but at 2 meetings there where scratchings which you had selected. I discarded them but are you doing yours without taking the scratchings out when analizing your selections.
Regards again ROBOT

Hi MAX and others

A good site for pre post markets tonight for tomorrows racing is http://www.**************.com.au/form-guides.

Not sure about Qld Courier Mail but you can check it out, but I do know that the prices quoted tonight will be identical for those in the Daily Telegraph here in NSW tomorrow morning.

Hope that is a help for those that want identical selections.

Cheers.

Enjay

Selections for today are:

*2011 05 11 WED PRBELMONT5, numbers 9 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 8 for 3 units
*2011 05 11 WED PRBELMONT7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 3 for 3 units, and 4 for 3 units

Both these races have the 5th fav at the same odds as the 6th and so would be dropped from Option B of the plan. But as we saw yesterday, this may not necessarily be a bad thing. Overall, they still are but the sample data is too small to tell for sure.

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=> Matt. Thanks Matt. To me ROI is the actual return compared to the investment, so 27% would mean a 73% loss. But I will move over to dividing the Profit by the Outlay and calling it POT from now on.

=> Robot. I do my selections 1st thing in the morning. The idea of this plan is to set and forget. Set them as soon as the data is avail, make the bets and then check them the next morning. If you do move the selections up in ranking when a selection is scratched, what sort of result did you get?

=> Enjay. Thanks mate. I hate having to steal the Courier Mail from the hotel lobby each morning. Having something similar online, especially the night before sounds awesome. I will check it out and respond.

Interesting.

According to the odds on that link, 4 Belmont races qualify:

PR5*
PR6*
PR7*
PR9

Again with * to show any with 5th fav on same odds as the 6th fav.

I hope to check all the tracks today and will be interesting to see the results.

In addition to above, W2B site qualifies Randwick 6* and 7.