In complete contrast to the "Simple Selection System" I posted, which is about fairly mindless scatter-gun betting, chasing the horses you'd never select otherwise, here's a detailed method of selecting sure things to place.

I'd really appreciate some feedback from experienced and serious placebetters. I'm interested in serious placebetting. First step for me: achieve a really solid strike rate. Super-cautious bets. My "system" is evolving. I'm adding insights, statiscal filters, whatever. Unlike the simple selection method I posted, this is not mechanical. It depends on being able to assess a race and the more you really know about horse racing the better you'll do. I don't think there is any substitute for that.

But it is still based on last start winners. It is based on the stat that gives last start winners a high chance of running a place. Its a good stat.

I've got a couple of versions of this system. Basically it is:


Race Selection

*No more than fourteen runners in a race. Twelve or less preferred. In a fourteen horse race are there at least two runners you can eliminate as having no chance?
*No hurdles or steeples.
*No 2yo or maidens
*Metropolitan races only.
*Not too many last start winners:

8 runners = no more than 2
9 runners = 2
10 runners = 2
11 runners = 3
12 runners = 3
13 runners = 3
14 runners = 4

Where there are several last start winners, check them out in detail. If the race is too competitive, no bet.

*No races where there are two zip star horses.
*No races where all runners are within four points of zip. Look at the zip. How many horses are below four points of zip? If none or too few, no bet.

Don't be tempted into relaxing parameters for races to create more bets. It is better to have fewer races or even none some weeks. The objective is sure bets over time. Be patient.

Qualifiers

Qualifiers are last start winners.

Where there are several last start winners, read their detailed form. Which ran the better last race in times and lengths, at which track, carrying what weight? Compare and rate them.

Essential Parameters:

*Ran within the last 28 days.
*A Nines horse. (Good results last four starts)
*Within 4 of the Zip.
*Within the top prizewinners in the race:

8 runners = 2
9 runners = 2
10 runners = 3
11 runners = 3
12 runners = 4
13 runners = 4
14 runners = 4

Look carefully at the prizewinners. A selection MUST have a strong prizewinning percentage to match its recent form.

*Barrier to runner. Look at barrier. Do you think the horse's run will be effected by its barrier position? Is it a frontrunner with a wide barrier? If there are any doubts, no bet.
*Place percentage rate above 33%. Essential.
*Eliminate if no starts this track AND no starts this distance, unless this is true of all runners.

Preferred Parameters.

Qualifiers must satisfy at least five of these seven parameters.

*A win strike rate better than 12.0%.
*A place strike rate better than 47%
*Won over this distance.(especially after five or more starts).
*Placed at this track (especially after three or more starts).
*No zeros in its form figures.
*1st to 6th place in its second last start.
*Saddlecloth 1, 2, 3 or 4.


Jockey & Trainer

Look at jockey and trainer, especially if a horse does not meet several of the preferred parameters. A good jockey/trainer can overcome a lack of some parameters; but also a horse that meets all or most parameters can overcome mediocre jockey/trainer. If a horse has the state's top jockey/trainer combination you might decide to relax some of the preferred (but not the essential) parameters.

Final Check & Selection

Final check: We are looking for a quality horse in good recent form in a good barrier position with a good trainer and a good jockey that has a proven ability to be in the money at the winning post. Have we got one?

Basically, this method involves reading up the form of the last start winners in selected races. In the end the question is: Do you think it will be in the first three at the winning post? How do you rate its chances of running first?

If there is only one such horse in a race, it is the selection. Selection is the only horse that fits the parameters. Don't relax the parameters to create more bets. Only relax the parameters because of the weight of other stand-out factors. For instance if a horse has run places in all six last races then it might not matter if it hasn't run a place at this track.

Selections are our FIVE STAR horses. No more than one per race day. We bet to place.

The magic ingredient is: DISCIPLINE. Chase a perfect strike rate. 100%. Bet as if your life depended on it and as if an out is the end of the world.

The selection on Wednesday would have been Moonee Valley, race 4, #1 Silver Birch. (EI's five star horse!)

No fun. But its more fun than going broke.

Serious placebetters: should I pursue this or just buy a tattslotto ticket every week?

Hermes

Hermes,

I am not a place-better (so feel free to ignore these comments!) but my main question is what are you trying to achieve with this? It seems to me that any horse that gets through this selection is not going to pay more than about $1.50 or so for the place - 1 or 2 bets a week at $1.50 is not going to make you a lot of money. Just seems like a LOT of work to go through all that selection on all the races for such a small return? Also no matter how good your selections you are always going to have some losses due to bad luck or just a horse failing for no reason. My OPINION is that if you are going to do place-only betting then you need a reasonable number of bets per week to get something out of it (but maybe I'm just impatient!).

Anyway best of luck with whatever you do.

Becareful,

Thanks for your advice. It is warmly received.

There are placebetters here on this forum and elsewhere who make good long term profits from precision placebetting. The volume of races is small, the average return is lousy, but a high strike rate gets you there.

Being fairly new to the punting game I'm trying to look at all approaches.

One thing I've learned so far: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. I'm just playing around at the moment but when I settle down and take up some serious betting I want to have several quite different methods going. One of them is precision placebetting. The work involved in finding that precision bet need not be wasted, though, because I'Ii have other systems going and I'II be looking for those selections too. The other spin off is that I might hopefully learn something about horses with this super-thorough approach rather than just playing with numbers. That's an investment, whatever system I use. The method I posted above is really just a structured way to think around a race.

I am concentrating on placegetters. The basis of my over-all strategy will be placegetters. There are several reasons for this. One is that I want to build a very secure, if very boring, system for my main bank. It's OK if they pay $1.40 as long as you get them week after week. Having achieved and maintained a high strike rate you can then introduce staking strategies to multiply those small but reliable margins.

If that's deadly dull, placbetting also leads into trifectas. My second bank will be for a trifecta method. Anything but dull.

But that's mainly why I want precision placebetting in my bag of tools.

Tommorow (Sat. 6th July) the Five Star with Bells On It place bet is...

Race 2 Sunshine Coast, #1 Past Blast.

It meets all the parameters on paper. The only horse in all tommorow's races to do so.

Race parameters - OK. 14 runners. Hcp. 1200m. One zip star. However, four last start winners in 14. A question mark.


*Ran within the last 28 days yep.
*A Nines horse - yep.
*Within 4 of the Zip - yep.
*Within the top prizewinners in the race - yep, but fourth best. Question mark.


*Barrier to runner. Runs from behind, barrier 8 in 14. No worries.
*Place percentage rate above 33%. Essential. - yep. 58.6%
*Eliminate if no starts this track and this distance - starts at track and distance are outstanding!

Qualifiers must satisfy at least five of these seven parameters.

*A win strike rate better than 12.0% - yep.
*A place strike rate better than 47% - yep.
*Won over this distance.(especially after five or more starts).- excellent!
*Placed at this track (especially after three or more starts).- very good!
*No zeros in its form figures. - no last places.
*1st to 6th place in its second last start.- yep, a good fourth.
*The highest weighted last start winner. - YES!
*Saddlecloth 1, 2 or 3. - YES!

Jockey and trainer OK. I like Cahill.

None of the other last start winners in the race can match it on paper. The best of them is #4 Youthful, but it fails on average prizewinnings. (But Past Blast's aren't that flash.)

Past Blast's last was a blast. It won at Doomben on the 26/6. Came from near last and ran 'em down. Was in a difficult spot and overcame it. I like that.

So selection is #1 Past Blast to place.

HOWEVER, look at its weight. That weight and four other last start winners in a field of 14, without a more healthy prizewinning average. Gee. If I was betting real money on it, I wouldn't be so sure. Like I say, I'm aiming for a super-high strike rate. A couple of bets a week, or even one, is fine. Got Silver Birch on Wednesday.

In a real life investment situation you could have a lot of money riding on these place bets. That's why you want precision. Err on the side of caution.

Here I'd have to judge the weight factor, the other last start winners (not forgetting #11 Wagstaffe), against Past Blast's impressive track/distance record which is the stand-out stat in this race. Past Blast is coming up in fitness I reckon. Will the weight drag it back beyond third? Excuse me for thinking aloud....

Selection is #1 Past Blast - Hermes Five-Star with Bells On It place bet for the day. So safe you could almost bet your marriage on it.

#11 Wagstaffe and #8 Slick Operator the other placegetters.

Trifecta: box 1,4, 8, 11.

Hermes

Hermes, I personally think you are onto something. The process is not too dissimilar to the one I work through in order to obtain selections.

One question: How are you going to stake it?

In relation to your comments about discipline, it's all been said but I put it like this:

The average punter can not bear to watch his horse go around without money on it. Heaven forbid it won and there was no collect! You need to remove that mindset. If you can't, you need a second bank.

Personally, I have gone with the latter option. (Sometimes I'll just put a dollar on something to prove I was right). Whichever you choose, this decision could make or break you in the world of placebetting and betting in general.

Good luck.

Placegetter

I think you still missed the winner.

For what it's worth hermes, I would rate Wagstaffe higher on the strength of it's last start distance being the same as the race. We'll find out tomorrow I guess.

Lumbarusa, who is the winner may I ask?

Placegetter

You may ask, but I may not answer.

Good for you Lumbarusa. Stick to your guns I say! Good luck tomorrow, hope it turns out well for you.

Placegetter

Good luck with it hermes!

I too also think you are onto something.

What puzzles me are the various postings around the forum which claim to have the winner, or a selection method, or a formula, but they are unwilling to share it. Everyone is entitled to share or not, but I just wonder about the motivation of making the posting in the first place!

:???:

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-05 18:37 ]