5/6 again. Oh well, if you must miss out on one it is preferable for it to be a 10/11 favourite .


Don't like you blokes being bright and bushy-tailed at 1.00 a.m.!! I need my sleep.

Yes that Rowdy Yeats has won twice in two days now. It was the danger runner of the bunch, but we finished with a tidy profit.

Are you laying these Merriguy? Laying each regardless of price, or pricing them up somehow?



It's not so good at this part of the day

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I'd be very interested in that price conversion, if you can give me a hint to which forum it's on.

Things are ticking along nicely, but I'm still struggling with the apparent anomaly of Australian price movements versus every other country.
I'm starting to think (can't prove it) that by comparison Australian horseracing markets are tiny, therefore any movement by "informed" money
has a greater chance of being correct, than price swings in big markets.

Not sure why, how, or whether it's just a perception, but this has been going on for many months now.

It's time to take notice and really start doing the reverse of what I do overseas on aussie markets.

I posted some time ago on this, and whenever there's money for a horse, they just seem to win, I cannot get profitable lay bets at any price!

There were 10 in a row the other week at various venues. (Favourites only that firmed on Betfair).

__________________
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Hi Chrome et al

They're talking about the UK markets but if you yahoo'd for

"using sp odds for forcasting"

you'd find it. Doesn't appear in Google for some reason.

Also you'll find an intersting piece on

"bayesian inferencing systems"

which is what I was getting at here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...46&postcount=11



Yes I agree with you here. In the UK and here in OZ I'm basically using the same methodology to arrive at my lay selections. It's still a bit early to reach any conclusions in the UK but it doesn't look like I'll get the same strike rate as here in Australia. I believe this is due primarily to me using a minimum and maximum lay price for my Australian lays. Before going live in Australia I observed the same trend you describe. By passing on the shorteners I've managed a 6-7%* better strike rate than I'm currently getting in the UK. The downside of this is that my Australian average SP is higher, and the POT and advantage** are lower. But it's quite mature now and is currently showing only a 2% chance of success due to luck. At this stage I've no plans to introduce a minimum lay price in the UK.

The UK Betfair markets are very sophisticated and are starting to interest me a great deal. I think what we're seeing here in Australia is a lack of uninformed money in the Betfair markets, or too many avenues to investment, or a combination of both. There was a short conversation about the Australian Betfair markets on Betfair radio last night between races. Andy (the on duty "pundit", who really know's his stuff BTW) hinted at a big increase in liquidity in the Australian Betfair markets by years end. I've no idea what he bases that comment on but let's hope anyway.

Have a good one.

* Come and get me "Punting Gods"
** I've not actually worked out my UK advantage yet, but it'll be more.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

A really excellent night from Don at The Daily Donkey. He's crossed the 10,000 profit point for the month so tread a little carefully, as he's only posted a monthly +10,000 profit four times. We did pretty well also, but at this stage the Donkey's are swamping us.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070320-0110 Warwick - Just Supposin ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0120 Exeter - Another Gale ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0240 Warwick - Rowdy Yeats ... WON -1.10
20070320-0250 Exeter - Anshabil ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0310 Warwick - Ceoperk ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0330 Southwell - Macademy Royal ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 20th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 92
Successful Selections: 79
Strike Rate: 85.86%
Profit: +23.07 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.95 units
Net Profit: +19.12 units
Net POT: 20.78%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 461
Successful Selections: 355
Strike Rate: 77.00%
Profit: +56.34 units
Commission @ 5%: -17.75 units
Net Profit: +38.59 units
Net POT: 8.37%

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Hi Pixie

Are you paying for the Donkey lays?
If so, it's very generous of you to list them here.

How much does Don bet, and over what period has he topped $10000 profit?

Hi Mark

No the lays are listed for free here

w w w dot dailydonkey dot com

I don't know Don at all. I just picked his name up from the site. He's staking 100 on each and I think he's posted a monthly 10,000 profit four times over about four years. I suspect what's happening is that he lays them early, posts them on his web site, them trades them when they blow in the market. He's very consistent but you'd struggle to profit if you layed them all as he lists his results at SP. That's what this whole exercise is about really. Picking and choosing to make his selections turn a profit.

Do you think summarising his results is the wrong thing to do? Just trying to show a comparison.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Ok thanks for that.
When do they put the lays up?

Do you think summarising his results is the wrong thing to do? Just trying to show a comparison.

No, not at all. How do you determine which ones you lay as opposed to laying the lot?
Like Michael, I've been testing another lay system. It's on UK races and last night selected 4 that were all unplaced. I'll post them here later.

Cheers
Mark

They are usually all there by 11:30pm but one or two do pop up after that.



Well that's the secret isn't it



Excellent. More the merrier.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Tonights UK lays. QLD times. With current lay price.

Chep 0.10 In The Lead 4.10
Chep 2.20 City Streets 5.50

Ling 0.50 Lindop 5.40
Ling 2.00 Bible Lord 5.20

Kemp 1.05 Savoy Chapel 4.50
Kemp 1.35 Black Oval 6.60
Kemp 2.10 Firework 8.00
Kemp 2.40 Methaaly 10.50 (probably too long)
Kemp 3.10 Annemasse 4.50
Kemp 3.40 Speagle 5.90