For those with a few brain cells left! It appears that some recent discussion has centred more on thinking laterrraaly, lateralee, latterully, ....... outside the square!!

Consider this.

Forget form, forget it! Look for a horse that is reaching peak fitness. Obviously you have got "buckleys" chance of assessing if a horse is race fit at its first or even second start from a spell. However my fellow bankrupts ...... go and have a butchers at horses third and fourth up, running over approx 1600 metres, without a win this time in, increasing in distance and running within a couple of weeks. We would have a "fit"(for want of a better definition) horse. There are not too many horses that win more than one race each preparation. With that in mind, when assessing the fields have a look at which horse may be ready to improve to it's optimal race fitness. Even if it had a crap run last time, it may have pulled, the race may have been run upside down, it doesn't matter too much. The trainer has mapped out a series of races designed to get it fit enough to win. If a horse was going to win over say 1400 to 1600 metres then you would reckon two races would be enough. It still has improvement in it ..... hence the surprise factor. Up to 2000 metres three lead up races should be ideal.

Is fitness more imprtant than exposed form?