Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 22nd March 2018, 02:49 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,201
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
ha ha ha ... thats a big no. They are overbet.


In every case - race? Sometimes they are off radar, in which case their price is higher is my general observation.

LG
__________________
The fewer but more complex filters,which are not easily identifiable by most punters in a system, the more chance of it repeating - Wesmip1
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 22nd March 2018, 06:36 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
In every case - race? Sometimes they are off radar, in which case their price is higher is my general observation.

LG


Yes in every case. My understanding is the 100 raters are the lifetime performance based on times of that horse. Just because a horse is rated 100 doesn't mean its running to its peak. The longer odds 100 raters are still overbet because people see it as the top rated horse even though its performance which warranted that rating may have been a long time ago.

edit: I thought I would quickly add that doesn't mean you can not make a profit on them in some niche cases. Some filters may here but need to outweight the over bet amount on them. IMHO 100 raters are great for increasing the strike rate and is good for confirmation if you believe a horse can not be beaten..

Last edited by UselessBettor : 22nd March 2018 at 06:38 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 22nd March 2018, 11:30 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,201
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Yes in every case. My understanding is the 100 raters are the lifetime performance based on times of that horse. Just because a horse is rated 100 doesn't mean its running to its peak. The longer odds 100 raters are still overbet because people see it as the top rated horse even though its performance which warranted that rating may have been a long time ago.

edit: I thought I would quickly add that doesn't mean you can not make a profit on them in some niche cases. Some filters may here but need to outweight the over bet amount on them. IMHO 100 raters are great for increasing the strike rate and is good for confirmation if you believe a horse can not be beaten..


Interesting insights UB. Cannot be far off CP variable from R+S in that case. I like the idea of using 100 raters for validation purposes. A bit like a lagging indicator ie not to predict an outcome but to back up an opinion.

Cheers LG
__________________
The fewer but more complex filters,which are not easily identifiable by most punters in a system, the more chance of it repeating - Wesmip1
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 12:33 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655