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  #1  
Old 26th May 2022, 09:51 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default Price Percentages

I am looking for some info and hope someone might have it, i got some stats from UB a while back on percentage of the top 3 favs.
1st 33%
2nd 20%
3rd 12%
Rest 35%

But i would like to try and break this down further in to prices.

any help appreciated.
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  #2  
Old 27th May 2022, 04:25 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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I think you have my database Shaun, so you could work it out from there or I could help you.
If you don't please outline what you need exactly please
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  #3  
Old 28th May 2022, 11:39 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Mainly what i am looking for is the percentage win of the fav at different price points, from $1-$2, $2-$2.50, $2.50-$3. $3-$3.5, $3.50-$4, $4-$4.50, $4.50-$5, $5 up
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  #4  
Old 29th May 2022, 11:49 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Okay, firstly top three faves:
1st 32.71%
2nd 19.57%
3rd 13.75%

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68%
$1-$2 51.87%
$2-$2.50 39.02%
$2.50-$3 32.27%
$3-$3.5 27.08%
$3.50-$4 23.17%
$4-$4.50 20.21%
$4.50-$5 17.83%
$5 up 15.75%

*Based on nearly 24 years of data.
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  #5  
Old 30th May 2022, 01:03 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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cheers, thanks for that.
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  #6  
Old 31st May 2022, 02:18 PM
Unstable Unstable is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Okay, firstly top three faves:
1st 32.71%
2nd 19.57%
3rd 13.75%

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68%
$1-$2 51.87%
$2-$2.50 39.02%
$2.50-$3 32.27%
$3-$3.5 27.08%
$3.50-$4 23.17%
$4-$4.50 20.21%
$4.50-$5 17.83%
$5 up 15.75%

*Based on nearly 24 years of data.


On those figures Chrome Prince, You would need to Average the Odds below to finish square at level stakes.

Code:
SR% ODDS 1st 32.71% 32.71 $3.06 2nd 19.57% 19.57 $5.11 3rd 13.75% 13.75 $7.27 1st Fave: $1-$1.50 65.68% 65.68 $1.52 $1-$2 51.87% 51.87 $1.93 $2-$2.50 39.02% 39.02 $2.56 $2.50-$3 32.27% 32.27 $3.10 $3-$3.5 27.08% 27.08 $3.69 $3.50-$4 23.17% 23.17 $4.32 $4-$4.50 20.21% 20.21 $4.95 $4.50-$5 17.83% 17.83 $5.61 $5 up 15.75% 15.75 $6.35

Last edited by Unstable : 31st May 2022 at 02:20 PM.
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  #7  
Old 3rd June 2022, 04:43 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Funny thing is I've noticed recently that best tote beats Betfair SP under certain circumstances, like the $5 to $8 range roughly, but you never know what you're going to get with either until the race has jumped.
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  #8  
Old 4th June 2022, 06:37 PM
Unstable Unstable is offline
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You are so correct Chrome Prince, Betfair is on average, 12% better than any other betting site, take away the 7% commission and you are still 5% better off than any Corporate bookmaker.

With BF, you can set your own price, if you think No.3 in race 5 is a $3.00 chance and the best you can get is $2.50, skip the race. If there is no value in the race, win or lose, wait until there is. BF don't care if you win, they just want the commission if you do win.

Years ago, I started setting my own prices, at first, it seemed like a lot of work for little gain but after a while, you start getting good at it. Picking the right races and skipping those races with next to no value.

Races where there is 6+ horses under $10.00, skip straight away, also skip races where there is a Odds on Fav, yes the Fav can get beaten, but do you really want to take that chance? Look for races with a $3.00+ Fav and the next being $2.00+ more than the Fav but no more than 4 horses under $10.00. These races are the value races to invest in, why, they are races where the Fav is not quite clear and most runners are over $10.00 and regarded as poor chances.

A little bit of form analysis in these races and you will find you are now getting value for your money.
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  #9  
Old 5th June 2022, 08:08 PM
Unstable Unstable is offline
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Example of a Value Race, Sunshine Coast Race 5, 5/6/2022.
Fav BF prices, $3.30, next was $5.30. Only 3 horses under $10.00.

There was value, in Dutch betting in this race, the 3 under $10.00, were all Value Runners.

However, with a closer look, No.2 The Kewess, last start run was on the Poly Track, beaten 3.7lens, prior to that, was beaten by a nose, heavy 9. Finds a Soft 6 and an extra 200m. With 4 on pace runners engaged, the prediction is a genuine pace and off pace runners having the advantage.

The Kewess should have the last crack at them and every chance to win this race. My price is $3.40, The Kewess done exactly that, Won, paying $5.30.

These type of races do exist, the value is there and if your analysis, comes up with 2 or 3 likely winners, then bet on them all, if the prices are as explained above.
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  #10  
Old 7th June 2022, 08:08 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
..... also skip races where there is a Odds on Fav, yes the Fav can get beaten, but do you really want to take that chance?


YES, sure do. Been making a living from it for more than 20 years.
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